Remnants of Ingrid

[phil882]

18z GFS rolling in... much faster and much weaker. More in line with the 12z ECMWF.... that coupled with the degraded appearance on satellite currently, I'm not feeling as optimistic as I did this morning. 

[phil882]

NE movement? seems to be moving away from the Western Mexican coast ATT

 

Its moving due north right now... the appearance of NE movement is the shear starting to blow off the mid-level vortex. Not good trends currently. 

[wxmeddler]

I guess 984mb.

Nailed it.

[apm]

Not sure I agree. While it's easy to see on water vapor that cirrus from Manuel is restricting outflow in the southwestern quadrant, it doesn't appear to be affecting the core. Otherwise the pressure wouldn't have fallen 7 millibars since earlier.

 

In addition, winds are stronger in all quadrants that recon has sampled than earlier. Both the temperature and pressure gradient are higher as well. 

 

On a side note, upwelling shouldn't be an issue judging by the comment on the last VDM.

 I see your points, but I think those features are reflective of earlier, more favorable conditions, i.e., when the eye was becoming apparent. Now the inner core is being impacted by strong flow from the west at the mid levels, I doubt we'll see the eye clear out anytime soon.

[Ginx snewx]

Its moving due north right now... the appearance of NE movement is the shear starting to blow off the mid-level vortex. Not good trends currently. 

I was looking at the LLC and outer bands, yea looks sad, maybe NNE but seems to have some east component at least initially.

[HurricaneJosh]

Omg, as soon as I decide to chase it, y'all start dissing it!

Ah, the ups and downs of 'cane chasing...

[wxsmwhrms]

Its moving due north right now... the appearance of NE movement is the shear starting to blow off the mid-level vortex. Not good trends currently. 

 

The thing is when it had more of a NE movement earlier today, the shear vector was somewhat better aligned with the motion.  As it loses its eastward component of motion, that will become more of an issue, especially if the convection associated with Manuel continues to expand and increase the SW flow aloft.

[Ginx snewx]

The thing is when it had more of a NE movement earlier today, the shear vector was somewhat better aligned with the motion.  As it loses its eastward component of motion, that will become more of an issue, especially if the convection associated with Manuel continues to expand and increase the SW flow aloft.

Manual seems to be on an intensity and structure ramp up, maybe Josh can go west young man. JMHO

[Superstorm93]

-88C tops blowing up around the center 

 

Overall presentation isn't great 

 

[wxtrackercody]

 I see your points, but I think those features are reflective of earlier, more favorable conditions, i.e., when the eye was becoming apparent. Now the inner core is being impacted by strong flow from the west at the mid levels, I doubt we'll see the eye clear out anytime soon.

Probably should've looked at the more recent images before posting. 

 

Shear does appear to have increased some. Maybe a level off in intensity or slight weakening before Manuel moves inland and Ingrid's upper air pattern becomes much more favorable. 

[wxmeddler]

Manuel needs to die now.

[dan88]

Although in some convection so SFMR will be a bit high, peak of what the NOAA plane has found

223230 2149N 09421W 7537 02405 9917 +164 +133 134061 063 058 001 00223300 2147N 09422W 7554 02380 9902 +172 +130 134062 062 066 010 00223330 2145N 09423W 7542 02385 9891 +169 +154 140070 075 068 027 00223400 2144N 09425W 7560 02353 9896 +151 //// 141068 073 073 026 01223430 2142N 09426W 7525 02385 9882 +154 //// 139053 061 075 015 01

[free_man]

Omg, as soon as I decide to chase it, y'all start dissing it!

Ah, the ups and downs of 'cane chasing...

Ingrid looks like an old woman at the bar right now.  sorry

[wxmx]

Shear was expected...it should start to abate some tomorrow and very early Monday...a good recipe to counteract shear is to generate strong convection near the center.

[dan88]

No center pass this time around, but SFMR probably supports 70-75kt intensity

223230 2149N 09421W 7537 02405 9917 +164 +133 134061 063 058 001 00

223300 2147N 09422W 7554 02380 9902 +172 +130 134062 062 066 010 00

223330 2145N 09423W 7542 02385 9891 +169 +154 140070 075 068 027 00

223400 2144N 09425W 7560 02353 9896 +151 //// 141068 073 073 026 01

223430 2142N 09426W 7525 02385 9882 +154 //// 139053 061 075 015 01

223500 2141N 09427W 7544 02353 9866 +163 +162 133051 053 074 009 00

223530 2139N 09428W 7513 02377 9854 +162 +149 137047 049 071 008 00

223600 2138N 09429W 7512 02375 9847 +166 +132 141039 042 047 002 00

223630 2137N 09431W 7500 02382 9840 +169 +119 131033 035 040 004 03

223700 2138N 09433W 7480 02404 9832 +176 +112 122028 029 /// /// 03

223730 2140N 09433W 7516 02369 9837 +177 +124 121035 039 051 001 00

223800 2142N 09432W 7502 02393 9850 +170 +138 114043 045 067 004 00

223830 2143N 09430W 7494 02410 9854 +172 +142 112049 051 073 009 00

223900 2145N 09429W 7507 02398 9859 +170 +165 116053 056 073 013 00

223930 2147N 09428W 7527 02384 9876 +162 //// 126065 068 068 020 01

224000 2148N 09427W 7508 02423 9889 +171 +150 128064 066 063 012 00

224030 2150N 09426W 7489 02455 9913 +158 +139 129060 062 060 006 00

[Ginx snewx]

-88C tops blowing up around the center 

 

Overall presentation isn't great 

 

Looks like that is continuing , looks somewhat better 

[wxmeddler]

Ingrid looks like an old woman at the bar right now.  sorry

 

Too true.  I'm hoping they chucked a sonde with that 75 kt SFMR. I don't know what they are doing now, going in circles I guess.

 

Edit: I just pulled up the NASA Aircraft Tracker and that's exactly what they did, They are now back in the center and it looks like they are doing a circle around the COC.

[dan88]

Went back to the center, 982.0mb extrap, 78kt SFMR with 10mm/hr precip rate

[DopplerWx]

storms really firing now on both sides of the center, hopefully she really ramps up tonight as winds catch up to the pressure.

[wxmeddler]

Dropsonde NE Convective Burst. 82 kts (94 mph) surface winds and 92kts (106mph) at 976mb height. 

[dan88]

2nd wind drop, 91kt at 981mb, 70kt at the surface (990mb)

[wxmx]

I think evidence supports 75kts for the 7pm intermediate advisory

[David Reimer]

Well, there is the wind reaction to the pressure drop earlier. At least this will give Josh some in-flight entertainment. Without any further pressure drops evident at this point (alright, maybe 1 MB...) this should at least allow 0Z models to get a decent grasp on the intensity. 

[wxmeddler]

NOAA P-3 going home. Air Force coming in for the 0z fix at 850mb.

[Snow_Miser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 

[wxsmwhrms]

I do get a kick when people start bashing the IR appearance of a storm like Ingrid.  It's a category 1 hurricane, not a category 4.  The current ADT supports 975 mb/75 kt - what exactly do people think it's going to look like?

[phil882]

The 82 knot surface wind is pretty impressive! There is some pretty impressive wind readings coming in from the NE quadrant where the huge burst of convection has occurred. Its gonna be a battle tonight vs. 20-30 knot westerly shear and very favorable thermodynamics. Right now, the thermodynamics are keeping this storm together despite the disheveled appearance of microwave imagery. 

 

[phil882]

I do get a kick when people start bashing the IR appearance of a storm like Ingrid.  It's a category 1 hurricane, not a category 4.  The current ADT supports 975 mb/75 kt - what exactly do people think it's going to look like?

 

I expect my cat 1 hurricanes to be axisymmetric and not partially exposed (see microwave above) 

[CUmet]

Yeah that burst that's sticking to the NE quad is a clear sign that the shear is tilting the vortex, resulting in vertical motion being focused downshear instead of distributed all around the center.  However, TCs can and do hold their own or intensify slowly under this regime despite the asymmetric convection, just as long as the shear doesn't get *too* strong, which I don't expect it to.  Ingrid has been pretty resilient to the shear over the past couple days, and the environment is pretty moist, likely diminishing the thermodynamic impact of the shear somewhat.

I do expect the shear to abate tomorrow afternoon, but given the faster initial motion and the models moving up the landfall to Monday morning, I'm somewhat more pessimistic regarding the upper end possibilities regarding landfall intensity.  I'm thinking Cat 1-2 landfall is most likely at this point.

[apm]

I do get a kick when people start bashing the IR appearance of a storm like Ingrid.  It's a category 1 hurricane, not a category 4.  The current ADT supports 975 mb/75 kt - what exactly do people think it's going to look like?

And it's about trends, you know? The trend (and upside potential) was looking better earlier....That was a tsunami of shear that just hit it. Unless it abates soon, it going to be toast no matter how impressive the thermodynamics are.