Normandy Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Whats interesting is that Ingrid is close in position and appearance right now to the simulated IR image Phill just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 some really great convection sustaining itself around the soon to be eye, good sign for things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 12z Euro has a bit tighter turn, hence it's a bit faster and a little to the north of Tampico... 12h difference with the GFS...day and night...literally...I wouldn't mind a consensus here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Hurricane Ingrid: AL, 10, 2013091418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 944W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 40, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 12z Euro has a bit tighter turn, hence it's a bit faster and a little to the north of Tampico... 12h difference with the GFS...day and night...literally...I wouldn't mind a consensus here. North of Tampico? I only have the ECMWF out to 18 hours, but it looks like its going south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 12z Euro has Ingrid moving towards the NW from the start, whereas 12z GFS has slow movement towards the NNE until overnight tonight. The next recon fix should be a pretty good clue as to which has the better handle on the track and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 12z Euro has Ingrid moving towards the NW from the start, whereas 12z GFS has slow movement towards the NNE until overnight tonight. The next recon fix should be a pretty good clue as to which has the better handle on the track and timing. The thing I don't understand is how the ECMWF keeps saying Manuel is the stronger system with copious precipitation. That doesn't make any sense given the satellite imagery which still shows a llc that is struggling to produce deep convection over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Curve (or lack there of?) ball: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Gulfstream 4 is leaving, and Miss Piggy is 150 mi W of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I am noticing some of the cirrus canopy associated with Ingrid starting to get restricted. I do see the hints of an eye on visible, but the big consistent burst of convection on the E side of the dimple is a sign that westerly flow is making the inner core convection asymmetrical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 North of Tampico? I only have the ECMWF out to 18 hours, but it looks like its going south to me. Yes...a few miles only...starts moving WSW just after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Yes...a few miles only...starts moving WSW just after landfall. The ECMWF is bizarre... it looks like it stalls on several different occasions and gets sheared mightily by Manuel before landfall as a weaker TC than it is currently. I'm not sure I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 12z Euro has Ingrid moving towards the NW from the start, whereas 12z GFS has slow movement towards the NNE until overnight tonight. The next recon fix should be a pretty good clue as to which has the better handle on the track and timing. Does seem to be moving NW already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I am noticing some of the cirrus canopy associated with Ingrid starting to get restricted. I do see the hints of an eye on visible, but the big consistent burst of convection on the E side of the dimple is a sign that westerly flow is making the inner core convection asymmetrical. Yes, and there are mid level elements shearing into the center from the NW already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 So it looks like the Euro takes the remnants of Ingrid around day 5 and forms a weak system that traverses the gulf and eventually hits central FL day 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I don't se any Westward movement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 You only need to look at IR and WV to see some outflow trying to impinge on Ingrid from the W and SW. However, she's still holding her own and I don't see anything detrimental at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Alright Tropical Dudes.. Time to play guess the VDM pressure on the next recon pass (should be within the next hour or so). I guess 984mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I'd say same pressure as the last recon. If anything microwave has shown a deterioration in organization the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Agreed; 989mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREAOF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HASBEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...ANDDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OFWISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH ANINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OFTHE 2013 SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 750mb fix from NOAA recon Center is roughly 21.3 N, 94.5 W Extrap pressure 980.3mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Down quite a bit 000URNT12 KWBC 142049VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013A. 14/20:39:18ZB. 21 deg 20 min N094 deg 32 min WC. 700 mb 2961 mD. 60 ktE. 113 deg 28 nmF. 210 deg 68 ktG. 119 deg 15 nmH. 981 mbI. 14 C / 2360 mJ. 20 C / 2460 mK. 10 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA3 0910A INGRID OB 02PARTIAL EYEWALL EAST SEMICIRCLE OPEN WESTMAX FL WIND 68 KT 119/15 20:35:25Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Down to 981 000 URNT12 KWBC 142049 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013 A. 14/20:39:18Z B. 21 deg 20 min N 094 deg 32 min W C. 700 mb 2961 m D. 60 kt E. 113 deg 28 nm F. 210 deg 68 kt G. 119 deg 15 nm H. 981 mb I. 14 C / 2360 m J. 20 C / 2460 m K. 10 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 0910A INGRID OB 02 PARTIAL EYEWALL EAST SEMICIRCLE OPEN WEST MAX FL WIND 68 KT 119/15 20:35:25Z Nice temperature difference as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 She's a cane moving at 7 mph to the N! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I'm kinda surprised its down a good 7mb from earlier. Would like to see more eastward motion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 New VDM posted with some more comments, pressure was changed from drop (based on comment, guessing 981mb was just extrap) 000URNT12 KWBC 142049 CCAVORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013A. 14/20:39:18ZB. 21 deg 20 min N 094 deg 32 min WC. 700 mb 2961 mD. 60 ktE. 113 deg 28 nmF. 210 deg 68 ktG. 119 deg 15 nmH. 984 mbI. 14 C / 2360 mJ. 20 C / 2460 mK. 10 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA3 0910A INGRID OB 02 CCAPARTIAL EYEWALL EAST SEMICIRCLE OPEN WESTSLP 981 EXTRAP FROM 8000 FTSONDE SPLASHED WITH 16 KTS SFC WINDSST IN CENTER 28.7C MIIXED LAYER DEPTH 50MMAX FL WIND 68 KT 119/15 20:35:25Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I'm kinda surprised its down a good 7mb from earlier. Would like to see more eastward motion though. Me too, the shear is really starting to ramp up. I think we've seen the peak for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Me too, the shear is really starting to ramp up. I think we've seen the peak for a while. Not sure I agree. While it's easy to see on water vapor that cirrus from Manuel is restricting outflow in the southwestern quadrant, it doesn't appear to be affecting the core. Otherwise the pressure wouldn't have fallen 7 millibars since earlier. In addition, winds are stronger in all quadrants that recon has sampled than earlier. Both the temperature and pressure gradient are higher as well. On a side note, upwelling shouldn't be an issue judging by the comment on the last VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 NE movement? seems to be moving away from the Eastern Mexican coast ATT, looks kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.