Remnants of Ingrid

[am19psu]

Disco for the special

000
WTNT45 KNHC 132353
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.

AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN
SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.

AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0000Z 19.2N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxmeddler]

New Pass: Same pressure +- 1mb and has moved 3 miles to the NE since the last pass an hour ago.

[dan88]

URNT12 KNHC 132356

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013

A. 13/23:40:10Z

B. 19 deg 18 min N

095 deg 14 min W

C. 850 mb 1360 m

D. 40 kt

E. 140 deg 22 nm

F. 236 deg 38 kt

G. 142 deg 27 nm

H. 993 mb

I. 17 C / 1524 m

J. 19 C / 1523 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 0510A INGRID OB 08

MAX FL WIND 48 KT 165/27 22:56:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT 319/40 23:52:30Z

[Superstorm93]

[Ryneone]

Will a stronger Ingrid tend to move further north?

[huronicane]

Ingrid looks amazing! 

[phil882]

Will a stronger Ingrid tend to move further north?

 

Yes... but size is just as important as intensity. A very small TC won't have as strong of a reflection on the synoptic mid-level flow as a large TC of the same intensity. Right now there is a weakness in the GOM mainly driven by the large and deep trough over the eastern US. Thus Ingrid has a chance to escape to the NE for the next 24 hours before the mid-level ridge builds back in. The size + intensity change between now and then will likely determine how sharp and how quickly it turns back to the west.

[David Reimer]

Yes... but size is just as important as intensity. A very small TC won't have as strong of a reflection on the synoptic mid-level flow as a large TC of the same intensity. Right now there is a weakness in the GOM mainly driven by the large and deep trough over the eastern US. Thus Ingrid has a chance to escape to the NE for the next 24 hours before the mid-level ridge builds back in. The size change between now and then will likely determine how sharp and how quickly it turns back to the west.

 

Well, looks like they had something to say about the size as well. Looks like any intensification has stopped for the time being, but it will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

 

 

AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN

SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED

OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.

[phil882]

 

Well, looks like they had something to say about the size as well. Looks like any intensification has stopped for the time being, but it will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

 

 

AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN

SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED

OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.

 

 

Yea the wind field associated with Ingrid is relatively large. This is in contrast to Nate (2011) which was a pretty small TC overall. Nate was actually in a relatively similar situation, with an initial weakness to the NE of the system due to a large and deep trough over the eastern US. The difference here is that Ingrid is larger than the size of Nate so its 500 hPa signature stretches northward into the central GOM. Other mesovorticies rotating around the mean gyre center over Central America are also contributing to this larger mid-level vorticity field. The models are not ignorant of this mid-level profile, but it would argue why its likely Ingrid will gain more latitude than Nate did in its lifetime. 

[CoastalWx]

I would think the 'danger zone' for commercial aircraft would be within 100 mi radius from the center of the cyclone.

Highly variable per storm. Depends on

Intensification because after all what goes up must come down. There isn't a set rule but in general you avoid convection by a decent margin.

Sorry for OT.

[am19psu]

Highly variable per storm. Depends on

Intensification because after all what goes up must come down. There isn't a set rule but in general you avoid convection by a decent margin.

Sorry for OT.

No, was relevant to the turbulence discussion

[CoastalWx]

No, was relevant to the turbulence discussion

Ok. Basically unless you are near an outflow channel you can come relatively close to the area of deep convection, but every storm is different. My nightmare is a storm traversing and transforming across the mid latitudes with a poleward outflow channel. Virtual no fly zones.

[Ryneone]

She looks to be going due E according to the radar.

[phil882]

She looks to be going due E according to the radar.

 

Yep:

 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT.
THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY
STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...
INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL
TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE
TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE
MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Ryneone]

This forecaster seems a lot more optimistic of Ingrid getting out of the BOc. She's seems to be really moving ENE right now.

[phil882]

It seems that Ingrid has been making several cyclonic loops recently... with the latest radar loop showing a near due eastward motion (Josh probably likes seeing that!)

 

[Floydbuster]

Ingrid clearly is organizing and moving further away from the coast.

[HurricaneJosh]

It seems that Ingrid has been making several cyclonic loops recently... with the latest radar loop showing a near due eastward motion (Josh probably likes seeing that!)

 

Yep. It seemed intent on suicide earlier today, with that brisk motion  toward the coast-- and then it stepped back.  The E motion gives it more time and more room. I'm cool with it.

 

Ingrid clearly is organizing and moving further away from the coast.

 

Agreed.  The radar loop ain't bad.  The core looks smaller than earlier today-- and that's a good thing.

[phil882]

Clearly there is still a lot of uncertainty in the modeling... this is just from the GFS alone for the forecast at 2pm Sunday. 

 

[phil882]

Well the 00z ECMWF is rather interesting! Its now the same timing as the GFS (it was 12-18 hours faster at 12z). Its substantially stronger... from weak/moderate TS to probable hurricane. Most strangly it moves Ingrid much further north and east of the GFS initially. However on Monday, the TC dives southwestward for the last 12-18 hours before landfall, making landfall somewhere well south of Tampico near Tuxpan. 

[Superstorm93]

Looking much better on IR

 

[thewxmann]

Well the 00z ECMWF is rather interesting! Its now the same timing as the GFS (it was 12-18 hours faster at 12z). Its substantially stronger... from weak/moderate TS to probable hurricane. Most strangly it moves Ingrid much further north and east of the GFS initially. However on Monday, the TC dives southwestward for the last 12-18 hours before landfall, making landfall somewhere well south of Tampico near Tuxpan. 

 

Does it also handle Manuel the same way as the 0Z GFS?

[phil882]

Does it also handle Manuel the same way as the 0Z GFS?

 

It starts to the first 12 or so hours and then it reverts back to the N to NNW track. However, it seems like the biggest error is actually at initialization in which it adjusted the position of Manuel about 30-50 km east of the forecast position at 12z. The end result is Manuel makes landfall about 6 hours earlier than the 12z run and a little bit further east. Ingrid is much stronger though and much further northeast compared to its 12z position. 

[David Reimer]

FWIW ADT numbers suggest near-hurricane strength now. We'll see what Recon says when they arrive.

 

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2013 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 19:30:30 N Lon : 95:11:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.7mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.1 4.3

Center Temp : -63.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF 

[dan88]

700mb fix from NOAA aircraft, roughly 20.0N, 94.75W, 988.1mb extrap

[phil882]

06z GFS moves Ingrid ENE the first 24 hours and then has it execute a cyclonic loop very similar to the ECMWF... landfall is delayed another 12-18 hours again and may not occur until Tuesday now. 

[dan88]

990mb (with 13kt winds) on drop

[phil882]

Manuel doesn't look very healthy this morning. Both the ECMWF and GFS had no clue there was going to be a huge MCS that developed about 5 degrees west of the system that likely kept it from ingesting the best moist enthalpy flux. This has limited convection near the center despite the fact that shear is low and the SSTs are near 30C. In contrast Ingrid's deepest convection is focused near the center, and while the storm still has a larger wind core that will need to tighten up, the pressures are lowering and the winds are increasing gradually. Since we are pretty much at the Diurnal Max for convection, it seems like Ingrid is winning the convective battle currently, and this could have implications on whether or not Ingrid will face substantial shear from the outflow of Manual. 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm actually surprised how good Ingrid looks this morning.  Was not expecting all this deep convection, nor did I expect these banding features or the fairly-decent symmetry.