wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 2 feet of rain IMBY... I think that's what we got last 3 years accumulated after Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Talk about getting the proverbial shaft once again ... I don't think our (Texas) luck can get much worse. This storm had everyone's hopes up so high for at least *some* good rains in the southern half of the state. I'd rather high pressure "guarding" Texas was more like the 2014 Longhorns defense and less like an SEC team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Talk about getting the proverbial shaft once again ... I don't think our (Texas) luck can get much worse. This storm had everyone's hopes up so high for at least *some* good rains in the southern half of the state. I'd rather high pressure "guarding" Texas was more like the 2014 Longhorns defense and less like an SEC team. Did I miss something? Most areas Austin southward look to get about 2 inches in a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Did I miss something? Most areas Austin southward look to get about 2 inches in a widespread area. Check out the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Check out the 12z GFS Ouch! The GFS has been flip flopping though with 16 day totals running 2-12 inches for San Antonio....one can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Hey guys, can we separate off the Texas rainfall chatter to a different thread? Let's keep this one on topic of the direct effects of TS Ingrid. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 If this doesn't turn NOW, Ingrid might have the most anticlimatic end...it's about to landfall in Veracruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 ^^ The last few IR frames show it might have made a wobble or turn to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 ^^ The last few IR frames show it might have made a wobble or turn to the North. It's a sheared system...center is partially exposed to the southwest of the main convection...visible imagery shows it's about < 50 miles from Veracruz. IR can't possibly show much of where Ingrid is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM INGRID NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 NASA and NOAA flying around Ingrid. The NOAA G-IV is at 40,000, NASA ER-2 at 60,000 and NASA DC-8 flying between 500 and 25,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 If this doesn't turn NOW, Ingrid might have the most anticlimatic end...it's about to landfall in Veracruz. It's 2013... what else would one expect besides futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 It's a sheared system...center is partially exposed to the southwest of the main convection...visible imagery shows it's about < 50 miles from Veracruz. IR can't possibly show much of where Ingrid is. No, but I think I see I can see, when comparing vis to IR, that a mid level center NE of the partally exposed LLC might be getting colder tops, and might be able to pull the LLC under. Not sure, however, the convective burst isn't expanding Westward to try to cover the center, which would ruin that. That has been my quixotic hope all day, the center would follow the shear and redevelop further Northeast. Edit to Add: Model guidance is in remarkable agreement on fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 2 feet of rain IMBY... I think that's what we got last 3 years accumulated after Alex. Ummm that cant be safe for you The euro splits ingrid in half Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The center looks to be very close to the coast per recon and surface obs... Ingrid might actually wind up throwing itself into the coast after all. Seems possible on this Friday the 13th in the lame season of 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 ^^^ It looks like it was moving SW and bounced off the coast? The last few frames makes it seems like it started to go NE or due W now that I look at it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The center looks to be very close to the coast per recon and surface obs... Ingrid might actually wind up throwing itself into the coast after all. Seems possible on this Friday the 13th in the lame season of 2013... Everything this season has been a fail, and I don't see a big shift between low and mid level vort maxes on CIMSS analysis, but I really think there is rotation in the deeper convection to the Northeast of the low level fail center. Weenie optimism. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=10L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 Edit to Add 12Z FIM-9 is a quick turn to the Northeast, followed by just as quick turn to the West, and a 40 to 45 knot landfall in 2 1/2 days near Tampico. 168 hour FIM-9 looks like near 1/2 inch IMBY, up to in excess of 2 inches extreme SW HGX CWA, 5 to 10 inches CRP to BRO, and in excess of 10 inches, with a few 20 inch plus areas along the immediate coast of Tamaulipas. But flooding rains for much of that state, with excessive rains in the S. Madre Oriental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Ingrid seems to have two distinct flair ups of new convection. One looks to be close to the midlevel circulation and the other close to the low level circulation. She really needs to get off the coast… The 4PM advisory should be interesting. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ISCAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATEDON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THEREHAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THEINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATEDFROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB.SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THENHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THEINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICALSHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THETIME OF LANDFALL.INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THEMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILYTHE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FORTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVERTEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OFMEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THEOFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IFINGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROMBOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THISTIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENINGFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED$FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Becoming better defined. Just needs to start its northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 According to most reliable models (Ukie, Euro, GFS and FIM 9), it should be moving NE away from the coast tonight. Ukie and Euro are similar, the GFS is the one with the most easterly component of motion, and it looks like the 18z will be similar in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Recon just made its pass through the center. Pressure is 10mb lower than before: 989mb. EDIT: Dropsonde splashes @ 993mb with 14 kt sfc wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 URNT12 KWBC 132142 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013 A. 13/21:26:18Z B. 19 deg 09 min N 095 deg 19 min W C. 700 mb 3019 m D. 46 kt E. 76 deg 91 nm F. 167 deg 44 kt G. 63 deg 47 nm H. 993 mb I. 14 C / 2343 m J. 18 C / 2431 m K. 12 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 7 O. 1/ 1 P. NOAA3 0410A INGRID OB 01 CCA SONDE SPLASHED WITH 14 KTS SFC WIND EXTRAP SLP 991 MB FROM 8000 FT RADAR ALT MAX FL WIND 44 KT 63/47 21:14:05Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Impressive drop...vortex shows 993mb with estimated at 991mb Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 21:42ZCorrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 01A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 21:26:18ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°09'N 95°19'W (19.15N 95.3167W)B. Center Fix Location: 176 miles (283 km) to the WNW (297°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,019m (9,905ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the ENE (76°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 167° at 44kts (From the SSE at ~ 50.6mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,343m (7,687ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,431m (7,976ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile...(nautical mile unit assumed since the unit was not noted for this line)O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile...(nautical mile unit assumed since the unit was not noted for this line)Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) from the flight level center at 21:14:05ZRemarks Section - Additional Remarks...SONDE SPLASHED WITH 14 KTS SFC WINDEXTRAP SLP 991 MB FROM 8000 FT RADAR ALT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well that's unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 18z GFS is very similar to 12z...same landfall spot at the same time 21z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well Ingrid, you are a bit of a surprise this afternoon. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well that's unexpected I saw it coming when the LLC was exposed, that screamed RI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Full res 18z GFS has it peaking just prior to landfall, with a pressure of 990mb...guess that looks a bit high now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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