dan88 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 000 URNT12 KWBC 152126 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013 A. 15/21:04:51Z B. 22 deg 45 min N 095 deg 59 min W C. 700 mb 2993 m D. 56 kt E. 94 deg 11 nm F. 174 deg 62 kt G. 91 deg 15 nm H. 987 mb I. 15 C / 2362 m J. 19 C / 2366 m K. 14 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 1310A INGRID OB 03 SONDE SPLASHED WITH 5 KTS WIND SST 27.3C MIXED LAYER DEPTH 35 METERS PARTIAL EYEWALL FRAGMENT N THRU E MAX FL WIND 62 KT 91/15 21:01:06Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 97 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Satellite derived winds starting to show developing outflow over the system. It certainly looks a lot better than this morning, and as the convection associated with Manuel continues to weaken, the shear should be continuing to lessen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Satellite derived winds starting to show developing outflow over the system. It certainly looks a lot better than this morning, and as the convection associated with Manuel continues to weaken, the shear should be continuing to lessen tonight. Manual ruined a decent shot of a CAT3 at landfall IMO. Storms generally don't waste time deepening in this area. CAT2 is certainly still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Manual ruined a decent shot of a CAT3 at landfall IMO. Storms generally don't waste time deepening in this area. CAT2 is certainly still possible. Oh I agree... Manuel might have been the most annoying storm of the year because it prevented Ingrid from reaching greatness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Global Hawk catching that Partial eyewall on the N-E side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 With this pass, it looks like the center is very close to the last fix, between 96.0W and 96.05W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Aircraft Update: Air Force C-130J is entering the circulation for a 00z Fix. NOAA P-3 is doing radar work on the periphery of the center. Global Hawk is doing something wayy out in the NE quad in what I can only assume is taking outflow data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Brownsville WSR-88D has been picking up on the inner core of Ingrid for a while... very slow motion to the NW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 First Air-Force pass went at 850 hPa... hence they got some better wind data: Rough center fix: 22.9167N 96.0667W Max FL winds in NE quadrent: 73 knots Max SFMR (rain contaminated): 68 knots At the very least this is still a 65 knot hurricane. Radar trends are encouraging that convection is beginning to wrap around the center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 That radar loop is pretty impressive...as the shear dies down tonight, the eyewall should close off. Recon obs indicate the wind field is pretty compact with the RMW around 25-30 km. This could ramp up pretty quickly as the shear dies down tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Two positives this evening... Center looks pretty decent despite the asymmetric IR presentation and the center fixes have had more of a northerly component to them over the past few hours. EDIT: VDM has the pressure up a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 The Global Hawk is leaving 8 hours early. They might of had a guidance issue, that's what canceled that last mission early. Either way, it's a bust for science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Well, the recon fixes seem to indicate that Ingrid is holding its own as pressure is holding steady on each flight and SFMR winds still support a hurricane. It is definitely gaining more latitude than was expected - and that is a good thing, because it certainly looks like the farther west it goes the more shear it is going to be impacted by looking at IR. That convection with Manuel really needs to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Climatology track is almost always the one I wish would happen, and despite the fact it is climatology, never does. Well, excluding Cape Verde storms, but then climatology and dynamic models usually agree. Still looks horribly 'smushed' (Joshism) but the -80C cloud tops are still there. Just quick check of HDOBS, approx. center, and about steady on intensity. 003730 2258N 09608W 8440 01415 9910 +211 +182 185017 022 016 001 00003800 2258N 09610W 8440 01416 9910 +208 +183 187009 017 017 000 00003830 2258N 09612W 8440 01411 9906 +216 +179 245006 008 013 001 03003900 2259N 09613W 8442 01409 9904 +215 +179 095002 006 017 000 00003930 2301N 09614W 8444 01406 9898 +223 +174 081014 017 020 001 00004000 2302N 09615W 8440 01411 9903 +214 +179 091022 023 023 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Climatology track is almost always the one I wish would happen, and despite the fact it is climatology, never does. Well, excluding Cape Verde storms, but then climatology and dynamic models usually agree. Still looks horribly 'smushed' (Joshism) but the -80C cloud tops are still there. Just quick check of HDOBS, approx. center, and about steady on intensity. 003730 2258N 09608W 8440 01415 9910 +211 +182 185017 022 016 001 00 003800 2258N 09610W 8440 01416 9910 +208 +183 187009 017 017 000 00 003830 2258N 09612W 8440 01411 9906 +216 +179 245006 008 013 001 03 003900 2259N 09613W 8442 01409 9904 +215 +179 095002 006 017 000 00 003930 2301N 09614W 8444 01406 9898 +223 +174 081014 017 020 001 00 004000 2302N 09615W 8440 01411 9903 +214 +179 091022 023 023 001 00 Moving just North of due West, still near steady state. 022500 2306N 09626W 8446 01418 9917 +214 +179 166007 009 017 001 00 022530 2306N 09627W 8443 01420 9914 +219 +176 083002 004 016 001 00 022600 2305N 09629W 8448 01418 9912 +227 +177 005008 011 016 001 03 022630 2306N 09630W 8442 01423 9912 +225 +176 019010 012 020 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Yuck 2013...gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Yuck It's actually not as bad as that image looks. The convection wrapping around the west side of the center is promising, as it indicates the shear is lessening and the vortex is becoming less tilted. The inner core convection has increased in the subsequent hours since that microwave pass as well, and the radar presentation is improving. The structure and the environment are becoming more favorable for sure, but the real problem is that it's just running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I think Ingrid's slowing down a bit, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Too bad next recon isn't til 12z. Ingrid appears to be strengthening based on radar loops. It's actually not as bad as that image looks. The convection wrapping around the west side of the center is promising, as it indicates the shear is lessening and the vortex is becoming less tilted. The inner core convection has increased in the subsequent hours since that microwave pass as well, and the radar presentation is improving. The structure and the environment are becoming more favorable for sure, but the real problem is that it's just running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Too bad next recon isn't til 12z. Ingrid appears to be strengthening based on radar loops. Radar does look decently impressive, but you can tell it decoupled from the upper-level portion of the circulation overnight on IR and only now is deeper convective tops (<60C) are re-firing over the center. I'd say its too late to see any meaningful intensification, but its plausible to say it maintained it intensity. Probably somewhere in the low 990's hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Air Force is rushing in... will it make it before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Center has made landfall and has weekended to a tropical storm: BULLETINTROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013700 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALLNEAR LA PESCA......HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.8N 97.8WABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 looking at radar and reports from family and friends, a disaster is brewing for Monterrey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 looking at radar and reports from family and friends, a disaster is brewing for Monterrey I was thinking the drive back into the mountains would be the most dangerous part of your chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Does anyone know how to get rainfall totals for Monterrey? The moisture Ingrid has piled into Texas as already resulted in over 4.27 inches in Brownsville and a flood watch for the Rio Grande Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 looking at radar and reports from family and friends, a disaster is brewing for Monterrey Any landslides yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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