wxtrackercody Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_RENUMBER_al932013_al102013.renFSTDARU0400100000201309122053NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND AL, 10, 2013091218, , BEST, 0, 197N, 937W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO......EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.7N 93.6WABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEGULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLAA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WASLOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEARLATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATICMOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ANDTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003MB...29.62 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OFRAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTSAROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUSTERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THECOAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.$FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 The best case for Texas would for this thing to crawl up the Rio Grande after making landfall in Mexico…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 Avila set a 50kt peak before landfall. Not sure I agree with it being that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 18z GFS back to stronger, with a landfall around Alex land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 18z GFS back to stronger, with a landfall around Alex land. It will be a tearful reunion in our old special places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 You can see one of the mesovort centers recon went through earlier today... pretty neat feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 0z GFS: Landfall half way between Brownsville and Tampico Sun night/Mon Morn., high end TS/ low end Cat 1. Lots of interaction with EP90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 While Humberto was a fairly straightforward forecast, the forecast for TD10 (future Ingrid) is particularly complex. On one hand, environmental parameters are all favorable: SSTs are warm, ambient RH is high, a presence of large-scale cyclonic vorticity, and modest but decreasing vertical wind shear. On the other hand, competing vorticity centers within the broader cyclonic gyre - including but not limited to a diurnally-enhanced MCV over Nicaragua and invest 90E in the E Pac - may actually induce shear over TD10 as well as potentially redirect low-level moist enthalpy flux that would otherwise feed into TD10. I suspect this will be another case of "if it only had another 24 hours over water!" where the greatest rate of intensification occurs within the final 24 h prior to landfall. Given that we don't yet know the date and time of landfall, this renders making a landfall intensity forecast particularly challenging. I believe the most likely scenario at this time is an intensifying high-end TS at time of landfall. However, if 90E fails to develop during the next 36 h and the MCV over Nicaragua dissipates, then perhaps a high-end Cat 1 or even 2 are not out of the books. Edit to add: The high moisture content associated with abundant mid-level clouds and large cirrus canopy within the monsoon-like gyre should help to limit diurnal convection tomorrow over mainland MX nearby TD10. However, if convection does become widespread, there is potential for outflow boundaries to race out over the BoC and disrupt the TD10's inflow as well as cool the surface and disrupt surface fluxes. Just another possible fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 While Humberto was a fairly straightforward forecast, the forecast for TD10 (future Ingrid) is particularly complex. On one hand, environmental parameters are all favorable: SSTs are warm, ambient RH is high, a presence of large-scale cyclonic vorticity, and modest but decreasing vertical wind shear. On the other hand, competing vorticity centers within the broader cyclonic gyre - including but not limited to a diurnally-enhanced MCV over Nicaragua and invest 90E in the E Pac - may actually induce shear over TD10 as well as potentially redirect low-level moist enthalpy flux that would otherwise feed into TD10. I suspect this will be another case of "if it only had another 24 hours over water!" where the greatest rate of intensification occurs within the final 24 h prior to landfall. Given that we don't yet know the date and time of landfall, this renders making a landfall intensity forecast particularly challenging. I believe the most likely scenario at this time is an intensifying high-end TS at time of landfall. However, if 90E fails to develop during the next 36 h and the MCV over Nicaragua dissipates, then perhaps a high-end Cat 1 or even 2 are not out of the books. Edit to add: The high moisture content associated with abundant mid-level clouds and large cirrus canopy within the monsoon-like gyre should help to limit diurnal convection tomorrow over mainland MX nearby TD10. However, if convection does become widespread, there is potential for outflow boundaries to race out over the BoC and disrupt the TD10's inflow as well as cool the surface and disrupt surface fluxes. Just another possible fly in the ointment. I'm with you all the way Will... the number one fly in the ointment is related to the competing mesovorticies within the larger CA gyre. It's especially challenging given the added influence of terrain doing a decent job separating the inflow of 90E from the inflow of TD10. I also agree the greatest intensification rate should be in the final 24 hours before landfall... but given that landfall could occur anywhere between 36 hours and 96 hours, its really hard to pin how strong TD10 will get. If Josh is looking for a worthy chase, I'd be rooting for TD10 to become a dominant vortex quickly and that it also takes its time with the westward progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yeah, the W motion is an issue. It needs to stop ASAP. I feel every few miles of W creep now will have big implication with regard to timing and intensity of landfall in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'm with you all the way Will... the number one fly in the ointment is related to the competing mesovorticies within the larger CA gyre. It's especially challenging given the added influence of terrain doing a decent job separating the inflow of 90E from the inflow of TD10. I also agree the greatest intensification rate should be in the final 24 hours before landfall... but given that landfall could occur anywhere between 36 hours and 96 hours, its really hard to pin how strong TD10 will get. If Josh is looking for a worthy chase, I'd be rooting for TD10 to become a dominant vortex quickly and that it also takes its time with the westward progression. Haha, always good to hear we're on the same page Phil, even if the only thing we're sure of is that it's a tricky forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 My opinion is pretty meaningless ( ) but I would agree that most of the intensification will happen <24 hr from landfall, judging from how the models handle the interaction of TD10 and neighboring vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yeah, the W motion is an issue. It needs to stop ASAP. I feel every few miles of W creep now will have big implication with regard to timing and intensity of landfall in a few days. It's moving at 2 mph, and that might be generous based on satellite. How slow do you want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 One thing that will be nice for a change is the near constant influx of recon observations (both from the Air Force and NOAA, plus some special dropsondes from the environmental global hawk) 000NOUS42 KNHC 121519REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EDT THU 12 SEPTEMBER 2013SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013TCPOD NUMBER.....13-103I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. DEVELOPING SYSTEM (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FLIGHT 0NE --NOAA 49- A. 13/1600Z B. NOAA9 0310A CYCLONE C. 13/1300Z D. 20.0N 94.5W E. NA F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT - FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 43--A. 13/2100ZB. NOAA3 0410A CYCLONEC. 13/1800ZD. 20.0N 94.5WE. NAF. SFC TO 15,000 FTFLIGHT THREE --TEAL 72-- A. 14/0000Z B. AFXXX 0510A CYCLONE C. 13/2100Z D. 20.0N 94.5W E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0300Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--A. 14/1200ZB. NOAA2 0610A CYCLONEC. 14/0600ZD. 20.0N 94.5WE. 14/0830Z TO 14/1130ZF. SFC TO 15,000 FTFLIGHT FIVE --TEAL 73--A. 14/1200ZB. AFXXX 0710A CYCLONEC. 14/0900ZD. 20.4N 94.5WE. 14/1130Z TO 14/1500ZF. SFC TO 15,000 FT2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.B. P-3 FLIGHTS AT 14/1800Z AND 15/0600ZC. A G-IV FLIGHT AT 14/1300Z3. REMARKS:A. GLOBAL HAWK 872(55-65 KFT) MISSION DEPARTING AT 13/1100ZINTO THIS SYSTEM...RELEASING 66 DROPSONDES.B. ER-2 (60-65 KFT) AND DC-8 (1-35 KFT) MISSIONS DEPARTINGAT 13/1330Z INTO THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Looks like the 00z ECMWF is placing TD10 north and east early on. There is less direct interaction between TD10 and 93E... but the ECMWF has continued the trend to make 93E the stronger of the two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The Pacific system (the future Manuel Josh will probably chase) doesn't look that organized, but it is bigger and has colder cloud tops, and can't be doing TD 10 any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Leaving for work, but early returns from recon suggests little change in strength, lowest pressure I have seen just below 1003 mb, I haven't seen flight level winds supporting TS, a few rain contaminated SMRF might support low end TS, but I think its losing to future Manuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Looks like the center may have reformed a little to the WSW, as the latest advisory position is a little bit of a jump from the last one. It's getting awfully close to the E coast of MX. I almost hope it moves ashore and dies, so that the future Manuel can strengthen unmolested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryneone Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The convection seems to be sustaining itself nicely this morning but agree it is getting close to shore. I hope with the next advisory we start seeing a jog to the N or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 VDM suggests a TS in 30 minutes. It must have gotten better during my commute and morning office chores. Looks like a fail on satellite, but sometimes weak storms being sheared seem to 'chase' after the lost convection, maybe it'll try to reform/propagate Northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 1000 mb with 45 kt winds in the N Quad. TS upgrade imminent Flight news:This thing is going to be the most watched TC genesis in history. (Karl of 2010 was already a TC). I'm not sure where the funding for the DC-8 or the ER-2 is coming from or even what instruments there are using. The over storm Global Hawk is in the repair shop till Monday. Maybe they called down to Houston (where the DC-8 and the ER-2 are based) and told them to get out there with what sensing equipment they currently have loaded (they just came off an air quality mission) and get down there in tandem with the dropsonde global hawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 NOAA 49 (G-IV/Gonzo) is in the air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 While Humberto was a fairly straightforward forecast, the forecast for TD10 (future Ingrid) is particularly complex. On one hand, environmental parameters are all favorable: SSTs are warm, ambient RH is high, a presence of large-scale cyclonic vorticity, and modest but decreasing vertical wind shear. On the other hand, competing vorticity centers within the broader cyclonic gyre - including but not limited to a diurnally-enhanced MCV over Nicaragua and invest 90E in the E Pac - may actually induce shear over TD10 as well as potentially redirect low-level moist enthalpy flux that would otherwise feed into TD10. I suspect this will be another case of "if it only had another 24 hours over water!" where the greatest rate of intensification occurs within the final 24 h prior to landfall. Given that we don't yet know the date and time of landfall, this renders making a landfall intensity forecast particularly challenging. I believe the most likely scenario at this time is an intensifying high-end TS at time of landfall. However, if 90E fails to develop during the next 36 h and the MCV over Nicaragua dissipates, then perhaps a high-end Cat 1 or even 2 are not out of the books. Edit to add: The high moisture content associated with abundant mid-level clouds and large cirrus canopy within the monsoon-like gyre should help to limit diurnal convection tomorrow over mainland MX nearby TD10. However, if convection does become widespread, there is potential for outflow boundaries to race out over the BoC and disrupt the TD10's inflow as well as cool the surface and disrupt surface fluxes. Just another possible fly in the ointment. Despite the fact that TD10 is named and 90E is still labelled as an invest, it's becoming increasingly clear now that 90E is winning the battle so far - at least in terms of circulation (or area-average vorticity, where vorticity is in orange). The combination of low-level easterlies associated with 90E and upper-level westerlies associated with an upper-level low over northern MX / south TX continues to shear 90E from the west (yellow contours and streamlines). Also note that remnant low-level vorticity associated with an MCV over Nicaragua yesterday has not dissipated, and has lifted northward over Honduras and is emerging over the W Caribbean. This will not make things any easier for TD10 to contract. The odds of TD10 becoming a hurricane have decreased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 BTW it's TS Ingrid now: TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1020131000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED INSIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. ARECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMRWINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRALPRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVELCIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BEA LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ISA LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVINGERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVERTEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THENORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OFMEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVESTHE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORENORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICOAND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCETORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERNMEXICO.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 12z GFS is stronger, but there is moderate westerly or southwesterly shear in the model. It's unclear to me whether it is ambient shear or from TD 13E, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 12z GFS is stronger, but there is moderate westerly or southwesterly shear in the model. It's unclear to me whether it is ambient shear or from TD 13E, though.LOL, and then becomes more centralized at T+72 about 75 mi or less offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Landfall at T+84 at 996mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Landfall at T+84 at 996mb Full-res grid @ peak 24-36" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 "Gonzo" the G-IV, is beginning its mission. It would be nice if Ingrid put on a little show at some point in it's life due to the sheer amount of plane/drone missions we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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