Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto

[jordanwx]

"THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT"

 

Sooooo why not go with 60kt? CIMSS (notoriously high-biased) and SSD both at 55kt. Whatever, Blake.

[SnoSki14]

It's certainly a hurricane now given its rapidly organized core and increased banding, and even if the advisory was 60 kts, there likely would have been a post analysis that upgraded it just before Gustavs record.

[HurricaneJosh]

 

Omg, this season sucks.   It can't even win at failing.

[HurricaneJosh]

Lol Humberto (and perhaps the NHC) is the ultimate troll.

 

Totally.

[bluewave]

I guess that statistically it is very unlikely to go hurricane free in MJO 2

right around the peak of the hurricane season in September during a +AMO

and neutral to slightly negative ENSO.

[NJwinter23]

What were we 3 hours shy of the record??? Damnit!

[jconsor]

Latest microwave images showing a developing eyewall, and an eye has begun to show up on high-res visible imagery as well:

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_1KMSRVIS_201309101730.GIF

 

[PDIII]

The general consensus among the computer models is that this turns back to the west after its initial recurve.  Can anyone provide an analyis on what the overall pattern supports afer day 5 with respect to intensity/ track.  I would like to know the probability that this makes it to at least to 65 west... my interests are in swell generation along the east coast.  This year killing me Can anyone provide some good news.

[GaWx]

The general consensus among the computer models is that this turns back to the west after its initial recurve.  Can anyone provide an analyis on what the overall pattern supports afer day 5 with respect to intensity/ track.  I would like to know the probability that this makes it to at least to 65 west... my interests are in swell generation along the east coast.  This year killing me Can anyone provide some good news.

 

 

 There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W. Since 1851, for storms that had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). Gladys moved NW at ~40W. The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC). Irene moved NNW near 36-7W. Humberto already started moving NW at 28W.

 

 Now, your question was regarding its chances of making it to 65W as opposed to all the way to the US. With it having already moved NW at 28W and it then having to move another 37 degrees westward, I'd say very low chances...maybe 1% chance at best?

 

Gladys of 1975 track:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1975/GLADYS/track.gif

 

 

Irene of 2005 track:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/IRENE/track.gif

[eyewall]

5am it was. No record.

[PDIII]

 There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W. Since 1851, for storms that had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). Gladys moved NW at ~40W. The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC). Irene moved NNW near 36-7W. Humberto already started moving NW at 28W.

 

 Now, your question was regarding its chances of making it to 65W as opposed to all the way to the US. With it having already moved NW at 28W and it then having to move another 37 degrees westward, I'd say very low chances...maybe 1% chance at best?

 

Gladys of 1975 track:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1975/GLADYS/track.gif

 

 

Irene of 2005 track:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/IRENE/track.gif

Awesome explanation!  I figured it was low.  I guess I need to wait for the next one... I body board.. but typically only go when there is long perid stuff during the Hurricane season... we have been very lucky the past several years (Bill, Irene, Sandy).  Bill being the standard for east coast swell generation.  Give me cat 2 passing between the outer banks and bermuda!

[GaWx]

Awesome explanation!  I figured it was low.  I guess I need to wait for the next one... I body board.. but typically only go when there is long perid stuff during the Hurricane season... we have been very lucky the past several years (Bill, Irene, Sandy).  Bill being the standard for east coast swell generation.  Give me cat 2 passing between the outer banks and bermuda!

 

 Thanks! I also feel that the never say die Fred of 2009 deserves an honorable mention. It moved NNW near 34W and yet managed to make it to 69.8W per the official track. However, it did that only as a remnant low rather than as a TC, which may have given it a better chance to make it that far west. I recall the remnants of the remnant low actually later having made it to the SE US!! This craziness is a reminder to never say never with weather. That's why I'm saying ~1% rather than 0% for Humberto to make it to 65W.

 

 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/FRED/track.gif

[phil882]

 Thanks! I also feel that the never say die Fred of 2009 deserves an honorable mention. It moved NNW near 34W and yet managed to make it to 69.8W per the official track. However, it did that only as a remnant low rather than as a TC, which may have given it a better chance to make it that far west. I recall the remnants of the remnant low actually later having made it to the SE US!! This craziness is a reminder to never say never with weather. That's why I'm saying ~1% rather than 0% for Humberto to make it to 65W.

 

 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2009/FRED/track.gif

 

Its worth nothing though that Fred being the weak disturbance that it was, was driven by the low-level flow, where the low-level ridge is traditionally more well established than the mid-level flow. That sorta takes away from the "unusual" nature of the track post-TC of Fred.

 

The NW statistic is interesting though. I hope you don't mind me challenging your record, but what about this storms? (I don't know the actual heading, but from the map it looks close)

 

[icebreaker5221]

12Z GFS keeps Humberto as a distinct TC south of 40N through 384 h (12Z 09-27) 

 

First makes us miss out on the latest hurricane record, then sticks around in the subtropics just to troll us. 

[canderson]

I'm in a small boat around the Canadian Maritimes next weekend, coming down toward Maine early the following week. Should I begin to actually pay attention and make some plans regarding Humberto?

[thewxmann]

12Z GFS keeps Humberto as a distinct TC south of 40N through 384 h (12Z 09-27) 

 

First makes us miss out on the latest hurricane record, then sticks around in the subtropics just to troll us. 

 

....and to upwell the waters everywhere to effectively kill threats down the line.

[GaWx]

Its worth nothing though that Fred being the weak disturbance that it was, was driven by the low-level flow, where the low-level ridge is traditionally more well established than the mid-level flow. That sorta takes away from the "unusual" nature of the track post-TC of Fred.

 

The NW statistic is interesting though. I hope you don't mind me challenging your record, but what about this storms? (I don't know the actual heading, but from the map it looks close)

 

 

Phil,

1) I agree with you about Fred then being weak (just a remnant low then) and the steering low levels thus making it easier to get far west.

I still think it was a rather fascinating entity and lots of fun to track, especially since it directly affected me in the SE US!

 

2) I never mind an honest challenge. Besides, I could have missed something. Regarding Esther of 1961, I just doublechecked. Its heading east of 48 W didn't make it to 315 degrees (true NW) though it was pretty close...so well worth a doublecheck. Its highest heading out there was 309 degrees, which was reached when it was between 33.9W and 35.3W.

[icebreaker5221]

....and to upwell the waters everywhere to effectively kill threats down the line.

 

I have no problem with it upwelling waters north of 30 N.

[bluewave]

12Z GFS keeps Humberto as a distinct TC south of 40N through 384 h (12Z 09-27) 

 

First makes us miss out on the latest hurricane record, then sticks around in the subtropics just to troll us. 

 

We need a storm to last 10 days or more  to help boost the ACE from around 13 where it is today.

[wxtrackercody]

The 12z ECMWF gradually weakens Humberto through 120 hours but shows awesome re-intensification after that. Makes it a 972mb hurricane by day 10. The GFS also agrees that this becomes a hurricane again, but not quite to that degree.

[Torchageddon]

I agree with those that commenting this was the ultimate troll-job by Humberto and maybe the NHC. I have never lived through a hurricane season so revolting as this one and definitively not throughout my hurricane tracking years starting with 2005. There isn't really that much left to watch now and if there happens to be a major in either the Epac or Atlantic and/or the ACE goes past 18 in the Atlantic, there aren't any more stats left to demonstrate record levels of inactivity. This latest trolling signals the end of my watching the season unless a major hurricane is about to make landfall on the US coastline.

 

I guess that statistically it is very unlikely to go hurricane free in MJO 2

right around the peak of the hurricane season in September during a +AMO

and neutral to slightly negative ENSO.

This is a very good way of putting it. Even despite this becoming a CAT1 hurricane, what we are seeing is insane considering what should be taking place.

[isohume]

Shouldn't this thread be renamed "Hurricane Humberto"? I mean c'mon, it's the first one of the season already! 

[wxtrackercody]

NHC is calling for re-intensification by day 5. The GFS and ECMWF continue to make this a potent hurricane -- a borderline major? -- in the open central Atlantic.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

[phil882]

Humberto is quite impressive on IR satellite imagery considering the SSTs its traversing right now are sub 26C... I think this storm is proving that moisture envelope + strong upper-level divergence can support a TC in marginal SSTs. Keep it mind its Theta-E that drives winds in a TC and not Theta alone, so the moisture envelope the storm exists in is probably giving it an added boost despite the marginal SSTs. 

 

[Amped]

Quickest fail ever.

[Superstorm93]

Quickest fail ever.

 

[icebreaker5221]

Not even a single cumulus congestus any more

 

[Torchageddon]

Not even a single cumulus congestus any more

It would be fascinating (can't really say that much for 2013) if it went from a convection-less swirl to a hurricane again, I don't recall that ever happening during my time watching. Anyone who has been tracking the tropics longer than me, has it taken place? Looks like it would be weakening pretty rapidly at this point.

[phil882]

It would be fascinating (can't really say that much for 2013) if it went from a convection-less swirl to a hurricane again, I don't recall that ever happening during my time watching. Anyone who has been tracking the tropics longer than me, has it taken place? Looks like it would be weakening pretty rapidly at this point.

 

I think it happens quite a bit more often then you think. Many AEW are convecitonless swirls that slowly regain their convection as they move into higher SSTs and deeper moisture as the drier air surrounding the system decays. Bonnie (1998) and Irene (2011) are two members of this camp. 

 

I'm pretty sure I could find some TC examples from my gridsat satellite database. 

[wxtrackercody]

It would be fascinating (can't really say that much for 2013) if it went from a convection-less swirl to a hurricane again, I don't recall that ever happening during my time watching. Anyone who has been tracking the tropics longer than me, has it taken place? Looks like it would be weakening pretty rapidly at this point.

Does Ophelia '11 count? It was a sheared tropical cyclone and its low-level center eventually became exposed and dissipated. A new one formed under the convective mass to the east and it became a Category 4 near Bermuda.