IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Really?Why does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Why does it matter? After Humberto, which storm will be Hurricanes Ingrid and Jerry in the next week to ten days. You said it, I didn't. *Potential* TS Ingrid in the BoC, I'm not getting a hurricane vibe from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 After Humberto, which storm will be Hurricanes Ingrid and Jerry in the next week to ten days. You said it, I didn't. *Potential* TS Ingrid in the BoC, I'm not getting a hurricane vibe from that one.That included Humberto and the BOC/Gulf brew. Certainly looks like the BOC system will have a good environment to work with. I just don't understand the desire to break a "lameness" record. Unless of course it's out of pure arrogance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That included Humberto and the BOC/Gulf brew. Certainly looks like the BOC system will have a good environment to work with. I just don't understand the desire to break a "lameness" record. Unless of course it's out of pure arrogance. Who cares? It's a stupid record anyway. We might end up with 2 or more canes in the next 7-10 days. That seemed to imply 2 more canes after Humberto, in my reading. If Humberto became a Cat 4 or Cat 5 photogenic satellite fish, that'd be one thing. Three and a half days, peaking at a Cat 2 is the forecast. This year has been lame, might as well be lame for two more days. Even if you included Humberto, which, in the context of the above assertion, would be silly, nothing suggests anything else in the next week to ten days. NHC forecast is a hurricane this time tomorrow. But breaking a lameness record... Arrogance? How? The Houston AAAstros will lose probably lose 115 games. What is wrong with wanting them to lose 120 and tie a 51 year record? Same deal. You seen a reliable model that shows a hurricane in the BoC? A couple of 12Z GEFS don't count, and none of the 18Z GEFS are implying potential Ingrid will be a hurricane. If you like being contrarian, well, free country. Nothing is impossible, but not even the Canadian is on your side there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Best videos come from Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I guess Sandy is mega-hawt if you're into a nor'easters. As someone who has a passion for tropical cyclones, I kind of need an eye and an actual core to show any wood. what are you talking about josh, sandy was such a sexy cyclone at landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 No core, 50 kts might be a bit generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 This thread is way too serious for something not so serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 This thread is way too serious for something not so serious. ? It's a bunch of weather nerds being passionate about weather-nerd stuff-- kind of like every discussion we engage in. You're just noticing this after ten years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The 0545Z IR image seems to indicate that the shear is finally abating and convection is wrapping around the LLC. Humberto might just be about to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 appears we only have a few hours to go before Humberto becomes the 1st hurricane of the year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I guess Sandy is mega-hawt if you're into nor'easters. As someone who has a passion for tropical cyclones, I kind of need an eye and an actual core to show any wood. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I like the 85 knot peak the NHC has now... major isn't out of the question, but I feel like it will have to RI today for cat 3 to be reachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Some nice sat loops to follow Humberto - both update every 15 minutes as opposed to SSD's every 3 hours: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309092345.GIF (Closeup enhanced IR loop) http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif (E. Atlantic IR loop) http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_vis.gif (E. Atlantic Vis loop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Looks like the early stages of an eyewall, though there is still some evidence of northeasterly shear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It makes sense that we are finally getting a more robust development this far east since it is closest to the very strong summer African Monsoon. There was recently some very serious flooding in Mali. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rains-from-invest-96l-kill-55-in-mali http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23879622 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It makes sense that we are finally getting a more robust development this far east since it is closest to the very strong summer African Monsoon. There was recently some very serious flooding in Mali. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rains-from-invest-96l-kill-55-in-mali http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23879622 rn.gif The problem this season hasn't been AEWs or the Monsoon... that has been very active with plenty of strong robust AEWs emerging off the African coast. Its just the pattern in the East Atlantic hasn't been favorable, with repeated episodes of anticyclonic wavebreaking producing a large area of westerly upper level flow over the MDR. In addition, this has advected a lot of very dry mid-latitude air into the Atlantic, which may be a reason behind the relative stable conditions we have witnesses during a large portion of this season. Many of the strongest waves have been emerging off the African coast at a substantial latitude, also making them more susceptible to this dryer and more westerly mid/upper level flow. In fact Humberto is about to become victim to another very strong and anomalously deep upper-level trough over the East Atlantic. This is in large part to why the system is expected start moving mainly poleward over the next 24 hours as it begins to interact with this upper-level feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 =============SHIPS RI PROBABILITIES AT CURRENT SYNOPTIC TIME T (THE SATELLITE OBSERVATION FALL INTO T-5H AND T+1H)-------------- New SHIPS---------------PROB OF RI FOR 25 KT RI THRESHOLD= 50%PROB OF RI FOR 30 KT RI THRESHOLD= 39%PROB OF RI FOR 35 KT RI THRESHOLD= 26%PROB OF RI FOR 40 KT RI THRESHOLD= 0%--------------Current SHIPS---------------PROB OF RI FOR 25 KT RI THRESHOLD= 38%PROB OF RI FOR 30 KT RI THRESHOLD= 25%PROB OF RI FOR 35 KT RI THRESHOLD= 16%PROB OF RI FOR 40 KT RI THRESHOLD= 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Can we keep this thread on topic about Humberto please? Feel free to start a new thread to rehash Sandy for the eleventy billionth time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Can we keep this thread on topic about Humberto please? Feel free to start a new thread to rehash Sandy for the eleventy billionth time. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ha ha ha!!! SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THESTORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HASSINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNERBAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALLREPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OFSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I was hoping at this point that we would set the record for latest 1st hurricane but it looks that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I was hoping at this point that we would set the record for latest 1st hurricane but it looks that won't happen. See main NATL thread Re: this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ha ha ha!!! SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THESTORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HASSINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNERBAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALLREPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OFSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. To point to what the NHC is saying: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 The GFS and ECMWF continue to hint at the re-intensification of Humberto after 192 hours as high pressure builds north of it and forces it to meander. Please don't become another Nadine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Optimistic that the record will be broken tomorrow. Recent NOAA-16 POES (thanks for the correction) pass shows that it's looking pretty disheveled right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Optimistic that the record will be broken tomorrow. Recent MODIS pass shows that it's looking pretty disheveled right now: Lolz, yeah, that looks pretty bad. Definitely gives hope. We just need to make it until 8 am EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Optimistic that the record will be broken tomorrow. Recent MODIS pass shows that it's looking pretty disheveled right now: FWIW, that is not a MODIS pass/image, it's NOAA 16 a POES satellite image with the AVHRR instrument. MODIS only refers to the instrument on the NASA satellites Aqua and Terra. Again, fwiw. Can't wait till we get the same resolution with GOES R (though technically not near the edges of it's viewing area, like Africa) Still. Dry air FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Lolz, yeah, that looks pretty bad. Definitely gives hope. We just need to make it until 8 am EDT. The record may be 8 am, but we need to get past the 11 am advisory. An upgrade at 11 am, in all likelihood, would translate to a hurricane at 12z on the best track (a tie for the record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The record may be 8 am, but we need to get past the 11 am advisory. An upgrade at 11 am, in all likelihood, would translate to a hurricane at 12z on the best track (a tie for the record). Not necessarily. (I never assume an upgrade with an advisory means that intensity was reached three hours before.) But I agree it will be a cleaner win if the 11 am advisory keeps it at TS intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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