eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Looks like this initial MCS will put us on the northern edge here as it rolls through with just rain and a few rumbles. Interestingly that is where there is an MCV. As you can see it is riding the warm front for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Think we need to watch that MCS today..It's already farther south than modeled Kudos to you for the further south track. Maybe the differential heating zone is more favorable later for CNE, even northern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That thing is rocketing Southeast. Alot of busted forecasts coming today if it holds together. We already had rain early this morning as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That thing is rocketing Southeast. Alot of busted forecasts coming today if it holds together. We already had rain early this morning as well... There was the possibility of this. It was mentioned yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Nice punch of high theta-e air moving this way. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Heavy, heavy EML over Michigan this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 HRRR handled this pretty well. It showed the complex blasting down into central and eventually eastern New York. The NAM was clueless and had barely anything in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It has been my experience that these convective clusters most often end up further south than initially modeled. I have seen this happen when the best stuff is forecast to get to SNE, but many times ends up in PA or NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 FWIW both the GFS and NAM do have height falls at 500 mb during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We can't be surprised about these developments today. We mentioned and discussed it yesterday. It very well may bode well for us tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 FWIW both the GFS and NAM do have height falls at 500 mb during the day tomorrow. Yeah posted about this in the other thread. Maybe we tickle a few cells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah posted about this in the other thread. Maybe we tickle a few cells? Possible... will need something to fire upstream.. still a lot of CIN around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Possible... will need something to fire upstream.. still a lot of CIN around here. Probably typical helps from mtns and possible lee trough tomrorow. Something does try to come in from the SW. The NAM seems too aggressive with that, but all models hint at it. If anything, maybe more for western CT and western MA as far as SNE goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Probably typical helps from mtns and possible lee trough tomrorow. Something does try to come in from the SW. The NAM seems too aggressive with that, but all models hint at it. If anything, maybe more for western CT and western MA as far as SNE goes. Yeah even the Euro has quite a broad area of QPF from W CT back through PA. 700mb temperatures are still >+10C through all of SNE (on the GFS) though cooler back across W NJ, Catskills, and PA. So that may be a target area. Storms will move pretty slowly though... wind fields are quite weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We can't be surprised about these developments today. We mentioned and discussed it yesterday. It very well may bode well for us tonight and tomorrow It's not a massive surprise. After this goes, the WAA will lift out to the east after this complex leaves. There are always the chances of some storms in this regime with strong WAA despite the best shot well north. You'll want to watch what happens in NY State. SNE will be under WAA this evening so I wouldn't rule a few storms out. Heights will rise and the whole thing sort of shifts north so if anything..nrn areas of SNE have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Nice storm near Cortland NY behind the MCS. It's tapping into more of the core of the EML plume while the MCS itself has outrun the best instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Nice storm near Cortland NY behind the MCS. It's tapping into more of the core of the EML plume while the MCS itself has outrun the best instability. You can see the cloud tops rapidly warming the past 90 minutes on IR. That thing north of Ithaca is a big right turner, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 You can see the cloud tops rapidly warming the past 90 minutes on IR. That thing north of Ithaca is a big right turner, lol Yup... it's running out of juice. 12z OKX sounding was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think we may be able to rule out any real surface based instability in BTV today due to this morning MCS (which seems to be a little later than originally forecast). Satellite doesn't show any breaks anytime soon upstream (at least not for 2-3 hours or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Starting to rain here. A rumble heard faintly in the distance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Still looks to give some of us some showers towards noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 radar looking better the last few frames I wonder if we actually get a good storm out of this nothing severe but anything is better then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Pouring with occasional rumbles and a few good booms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1022 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013CTZ002-MAZ002>004-008>011-101515-HARTFORD-WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERNWORCESTER-EASTERN HAMPDEN-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-1022 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERNHARTFORD...HAMPDEN...HAMPSHIRE...FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN WORCESTERCOUNTIES COUNTIES...AT 1020 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKINGA LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROMBUCKLAND TO 31 MILES WEST OF TOLLAND...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESESTORMS.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SPRINGFIELD...CHICOPEE...ENFIELD...WESTFIELD...FITCHBURG...HOLYOKE...AMHERST...WINDSOR...NORTHAMPTON...AGAWAM...WEST SPRINGFIELD...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...DEERFIELD...SIMSBURY...LUDLOW...BLOOMFIELD...GARDNER...AVON AND SOUTH HADLEY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MINOR URBAN ANDPOOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODEDROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Guess I was right about it plowing south this morning. Went so far south it went south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 12z NAM manages to remove MLCIN entirely tomorrow afternoon as that weak s/w advances east from PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Couple lightning strikes and deep rumbles here. Also heavy rain. Very little wind however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 12z NAM manages to remove MLCIN entirely tomorrow afternoon as that weak s/w advances east from PA.Weeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Weeeeeeee Eh I wouldn't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Eh I wouldn't get too excited. 80% chance of ten ef5's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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