CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 definitely some uncertainty. Just watch out for the 10% chance of a wedge crossing lake champlain. Hopefully eyewall has his camera ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Its a Catch-22 for tomorrow: If the skies don't clear out then the CAPE forecasts will bust; on the other hand if the warm front lifts fast to the north or northeast and we clear the CAP will rule. Best scenario for severe weather tomorrow is clearing but warm front slows across NNY/NNE so both best shear and CAPE are manifested. Wild card for severe tomorrow is shear params are correct and even 1/3rd to 1/2 CAPE is materialized even w/ cloud cover. My personal experience is that even w/ only minor insolation/warming at least some isoalted to scattered severe is still possible. It's a complex setup and the high res short-term models are all over the place with it. All we can do for now is keep a close eye on radar and surface obs to track that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I actually think... given upstream soundings... CAPE forecasts are probably underdone in some areas. 00z GRB sounding has MUCAPE >4000 j/kg. Agreed re: kinematics but EML presence argues for high end severe where convection can occur. That's a bit trickier to figure out. Valid point Ryan BUT lower sun angle this time of year tends to mitigate and actually aid CAP in lidding things. My personal experience with Fall/early spring convectiion outbreaks tends to lead me to rely more on shear values rather than CAPE. All I was trying to say was that even if the CAPE is overdone, even just 1/2 to 1/3rd of what is forecast combined w /tomorrow's forecast shear params could lead to some decent severe. Even w/out any insolation. Personally I think some are looking at the forecast CAPE and are wetting themselves; these folks need to know what the P in CAPE stands for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's a complex setup and the high res short-term models are all over the place with it. All we can do for now is keep a close eye on radar and surface obs to track that front. LOL. I agree, isn't this the case with MOST severe wx setups? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 For Thursday, the better forcing might not really arrive here until late evening. The NAM develops a pretty strong LLJ though late in the day but it also has some pretty meh lapse rates but does have some nice elevated cape. If anything, perhaps we can maintain a strongly forced convective line but not low topped so some decent lightning and maybe a threat for hail. hodographs do lengthen though around 0z thanks to the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Hopefully eyewall has his camera ready. I have my spot staked out behind the aquarium at the BTV waterfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 WOW...the 21z SPC SREF has some hefty 24-HR svr probs Wed/Thurs across NNE...would be close to mod risk issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Wednesday could be one of those days with line racing ESE from CYUL at like 40+kts. Pine Tree Pummeler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 WOW...the 21z SPC SREF has some hefty 24-HR svr probs Wed/Thurs across NNE...would be close to mod risk issuance.That's why I prefer to look at the 12hr probs. Note that those 40% probabilities are spread over two days. The 12hr probs line up with marginal SLGT risk for one given day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That's why I prefer to look at the 12hr probs. Note that those 40% probabilities are spread over two days. The 12hr probs line up with marginal SLGT risk for one given day. ahh...I see what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 ahh...I see what you mean.Still, pretty impressive for mid-September and I think there's a good shot at some significant severe somewhere north of I-90 over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Still, pretty impressive for mid-September and I think there's a good shot at some significant severe somewhere north of I-90 over the next few days. Yeah someone is going to get hit good. now it's just all about ironing out details and such. We know what we are looking at from a synoptic/kinematic/thermodynamic standpoint but it's just getting everything to evolve together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS continues to strengthen as cloud tops continue to cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS continues to strengthen as cloud tops continue to cool Might this be the main event for Tuesday? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Might this be the main event for Tuesday? :/ Very well may be. It really will be difficult tomorrow to break through the Cap, especially with rising heights. I guess just have to watch to see if Lake Breeze can fire anything or if any action forms in Canada and OFB trigger something in NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Very well may be. It really will be difficult tomorrow to break through the Cap, especially with rising heights. I guess just have to watch to see if Lake Breeze can fire anything or if any action forms in Canada and OFB trigger something in NYSS Sum of the parts may be sig for Tuesday. Minor additives triggers, CAPE, etc. combining in time and place coincidentally COULD make for decent severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Sum of the parts may be sig for Tuesday. Minor additives triggers, CAPE, etc. combining in time and place coincidentally COULD make for decent severe. Wednesday looks to be the more fun day up that way, will actually have a trigger and good cape/shear combo. Storm mode may end up becoming linear quickly but initially storms should be discrete so there should be a tornado threat for the first few hours of the event then a quick transition to straight line winds, though you do have to watch for spinups embedded in the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Very well may be. It really will be difficult tomorrow to break through the Cap, especially with rising heights. I guess just have to watch to see if Lake Breeze can fire anything or if any action forms in Canada and OFB trigger something in NYS. I'm looking at that MCS and trying to judge its trajectory along the ridge... I must say... Its a little more south than I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I'm looking at that MCS and trying to judge its trajectory along the ridge... I must say... Its a little more south than I expected Riding right along the MUCape/theta-e axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Well shut eye time...can't wait to see how thing look in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Wednesday looks to be the more fun day up that way, will actually have a trigger and good cape/shear combo. Storm mode may end up becoming linear quickly but initially storms should be discrete so there should be a tornado threat for the first few hours of the event then a quick transition to straight line winds, though you do have to watch for spinups embedded in the lines. Agree on discrete/lines and tornadoes...tornado threat may actually be more where lines have breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Riding right along the MUCape/theta-e axis Odd to me the way most simulated radars want to plow it straight east across Canada. I guess because, looking at the nam, the ridge flattens out more in the next 12-24 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Odd to me the way most simulated radars want to plow it straight east across Canada. I guess because, looking at the nam, the ridge flattens out more in the next 12-24 hours.. As ridge flattens the MCS will probably evolve into more of a rainmaker vs severe wx maker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 SPC for Thursday ..NERN STATES...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKESREGION ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO WRN NY AND WRNPA. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THEBOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONTALCONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ALLOWING FOR MODERATEDESTABILIZATION ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR IN THE NERN STATES THURSDAYAFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY...A LINE OF STORMS MAYBECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z THURSDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FORM NRNNEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS NY SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KGRANGE WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULDSUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FORSUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THEAPPROACHING LINE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLEFOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE THURSDAYAFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Congrats NNE with a SLGT risk days 1, 2, and 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 pouring here no thunder or lightning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Approximate warm front position based off of sfc obs and radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 looking at the radar makes me think some of that makes it in here Approximate warm front position based off of sfc obs and radar:image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 line starting to bow out west to bad its expected to die out by the time it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Think we need to watch that MCS today..It's already farther south than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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