CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The fact that it's September doesn't really matter either. The setup is unusual for September but isn't unprecedented. The window for convection appears to setup a couple hundred miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 When it comes to convection, especially when talking about possible severe and high end/outbreak stuff, there are always alot of if, and's, or butt's...not just when it comes to SNEYep. Even tomorrow is not a done deal for upstate NY. So many things could go wrong. Latest HRRR brings a big MCS through during the morning that probably kills the atmosphere for most of the day out there. 18z NAM was further north and shows barely anything after the morning junk, that's also much further north. RAP actually looks good in contrast. It will largely come down to nowcasting. The ingredients are there, but timing, placement and daytime heating will be critical. It could end up going one of several different ways. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The fact that it's September doesn't really matter either. The setup is unusual for September but isn't unprecedented. The window for convection appears to setup a couple hundred miles north. I think that certainly factors in to some degree. It's not a major factor..but it certainly hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Also, while the chances are extremely low on Wednesday you still need to pay close attention b/c of how volatile the environment will be. Even if you only see one storm develop, the chances of that one storm producing sig severe is pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think that certainly factors in to some degree. It's not a major factor..but it certainly hurtsIt doesn't hurt when you have 2SD 850s, steep lapse rates and extreme instability. The setup is something you'd typically expect out of August, if not July. The limiting factors here are placement and CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Also, while the chances are extremely low on Wednesday you still need to pay close attention b/c of how volatile the environment will be. Even if you only see one storm develop, the chances of that one storm producing sig severe is pretty high As it appears now there won't be one cloud anywhere in SNE. You can just picture how the sky is going to look. That miserable, hazy, light blue color with not even a high cirrus cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think that certainly factors in to some degree. It's not a major factor..but it certainly hurts Actually, if anything, having this setup now benefits. If you look at the system, it's more of a mid-fall type system given the degree of forcing associated with it and the strength of the jet dynamics associated with it. I doubt we would see something as dynamic say July, though it certainly would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 As it appears now there won't be one cloud anywhere in SNE. You can just picture how the sky is going to look. That miserable, hazy, light blue color with not even a high cirrus cloud Absolutely...but you just can't ignore it or discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think that certainly factors in to some degree. It's not a major factor..but it certainly hurts How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Actually, if anything, having this setup now benefits. If you look at the system, it's more of a mid-fall type system given the degree of forcing associated with it and the strength of the jet dynamics associated with it. I doubt we would see something as dynamic say July, though it certainly would be possible. Should say that we could see similar dynamics but the forcing wouldn't be the same...take a look at the temp gradient at 850mb...you wouldn't see that in July and that will be a huge boost for uplift and lead to a much more defined "sloped" front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 As it appears now there won't be one cloud anywhere in SNE. You can just picture how the sky is going to look. That miserable, hazy, light blue color with not even a high cirrus cloud Maybe we can rip some morning ACCAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Maybe we can rip some morning ACCAS. Seeing those on a severe day is like waking up on Christmas morning and seeing present galore under the tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think Kevin is talking about weaker solar insolation and the atmosphere having a summer hangover and this can be a factor...but CAPE is CAPE. 4000J is 4000J, but means nothing if we are capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think Kevin is talking about weaker solar insolation and the atmosphere having a summer hangover and this can be a factor...but CAPE is CAPE. 4000J is 4000J, but means nothing if we are capped. Typically I would agree about the solar insolation being an issue but not this time. Thank you EML and 850mb temps into the low +20'sC. Hell, if we had those values in mid-July or early August we would make a run for 101-102F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Typically I would agree about the solar insolation being an issue but not this time. Thank you EML and 850mb temps into the low +20'sC. Hell, if we had those values in mid-July or early August we would make a run for 101-102F Yeah but the insolation is what helps generate strong low level updrafts. Anyways, it won't matter for some areas further north. Check out GRB sounding tonight for kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think Kevin is talking about weaker solar insolation and the atmosphere having a summer hangover and this can be a factor...but CAPE is CAPE. 4000J is 4000J, but means nothing if we are capped. Yeah when you're dry adiabatic from 550-700mb and you have a super anomalously warm airmass it really doesn't matter. It's nice having warm SSTs this time of year compared to late May or early June too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah but the insolation is what helps generate strong low level updrafts. Anyways, it won't matter for some areas further north. Check out GRB sounding tonight for kicks. Yeah that's a good point. Holy crap!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Seeing those on a severe day is like waking up on Christmas morning and seeing present galore under the tree I had some nice ACCAS last July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah when you're dry adiabatic from 550-700mb and you have a super anomalously warm airmass it really doesn't matter. It's nice having warm SSTs this time of year compared to late May or early June too. I'll enjoy my ACCAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I had some nice ACCAS last July Always a great sign seeing those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Seems like a lot of if's, and's or but's...Never a good sign when talking about severe in SNE, Add the fact that it's mid September..and that should pretty much throw the last shovelful of dirt on us. Painful to possibly see massive Tor's and wind damage rip across NNE..while it's sunny and 98 down here and cloudless..reading posts from Tip about summery appeals in the long range. Fall thru early spring severe can often be surprising with high shear such as that which is forecast. IMO CAPE forecasts, even w/ EML look to soundings is overdone on Tuesday X NEUS. When it comes to convection, especially when talking about possible severe and high end/outbreak stuff, there are always alot of if, and's, or butt's...not just when it comes to SNE True but don't hinge your forecast 6on a CAPE forecast alone. A sage forecaster who I interned with when I was in college said no thunderstorms ever happened with a Showlatwer index or Li of < 0 or a KI > 35. Yes everything looks impressive BUT will all elements actually come together in time and palce on Tuesday across the NEUS; especially after the morning MCS moves through NY and NE. The fact that it's September doesn't really matter either. The setup is unusual for September but isn't unprecedented. The window for convection appears to setup a couple hundred miles north. Totally agree. Yep. Even tomorrow is not a done deal for upstate NY. So many things could go wrong. Latest HRRR brings a big MCS through during the morning that probably kills the atmosphere for most of the day out there. 18z NAM was further north and shows barely anything after the morning junk, that's also much further north. RAP actually looks good in contrast. It will largely come down to nowcasting. The ingredients are there, but timing, placement and daytime heating will be critical. It could end up going one of several different ways. We'll see. Absolutely agree Seeing those on a severe day is like waking up on Christmas morning and seeing present galore under the tree And then you plug-in the XBOX and it doesn't power up. Yeah when you're dry adiabatic from 550-700mb and you have a super anomalously warm airmass it really doesn't matter. It's nice having warm SSTs this time of year compared to late May or early June too. As I said abovestrong kinematics in Fall thru early spring tend to be the more influential factors in late season severe than CAPE value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Fall thru early spring severe can often be surprising with high shear such as that which is forecast. IMO CAPE forecasts, even w/ EML look to soundings is overdone on Tuesday X NEUS. As I said abovestrong kinematics in Fall thru early spring tend to be the more influential factors in late season severe than CAPE value I actually think... given upstream soundings... CAPE forecasts are probably underdone in some areas. 00z GRB sounding has MUCAPE >4000 j/kg. Agreed re: kinematics but EML presence argues for high end severe where convection can occur. That's a bit trickier to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah that's a good point. Holy crap!! damn right. That's the money right there. Coming east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 damn right. That's the money right there. Coming east.... Those soundings are so fun to look at. I think Wednesday looks quite good from upstate NY into VT. Tuesday is a bit more uncertain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Those soundings are so fun to look at. I think Wednesday looks quite good from upstate NY into VT. Tuesday is a bit more uncertain?Yes, Tuesday has major potential if things clear out fast enough. If not, it could be a lot of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I wonder if Lake Breeze could be enough convergence to spark some stuff in NY near the Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 One other thing about tomorrow is after the initial MCS is heights also rise throughout the day so combine that with a Cap + s/w subsidence and it could be near impossible to fire anything tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Those soundings are so fun to look at. I think Wednesday looks quite good from upstate NY into VT. Tuesday is a bit more uncertain?definitely some uncertainty. Just watch out for the 10% chance of a wedge crossing lake champlain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 definitely some uncertainty. Just watch out for the 10% chance of a wedge crossing lake champlain. If that happened I'd fly out there and jump from the plane naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yes, Tuesday has major potential if things clear out fast enough. If not, it could be a lot of nothing. Its a Catch-22 for tomorrow: If the skies don't clear out then the CAPE forecasts will bust; on the other hand if the warm front lifts fast to the north or northeast and we clear the CAP will rule. Best scenario for severe weather tomorrow is clearing but warm front slows across NNY/NNE so both best shear and CAPE are manifested. Wild card for severe tomorrow is shear params are correct and even 1/3rd to 1/2 CAPE is materialized even w/ cloud cover. My personal experience is that even w/ only minor insolation/warming at least some isoalted to scattered severe is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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