weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Agreed, especially Wednesday IMO. That's my ideal type severe day in New England... It's like fishing for Tuna instead of bluegills. Probably come back empty handed, but if not, wow. I could see Wednesday featuring the possibility of several tornadoes up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 yeah but it's akin to the kind of numbers that happen to our SW all summer long...while they just bake away and nothing happens. They'll be days and days of -15C LIs in Texas with nothing. Used to hate it...jsut seeing the clouds not able to muster any vertical depth. The cap is an issue that has to be dealt with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 SPC AC 091628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON SEP 09 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...NORTHEAST STATES... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WHILE A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MN/ND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO WESTERN NY BY 10/12Z. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING IN THIS REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR COMPLICATION REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE MCS...AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY EXIST PRECEDING THE CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH OF NY AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES. DESPITE QUESTIONS REGARDING INSTABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE MORE OF VT/NH/ME. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SYSTEM...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE. BUT ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 09/09/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 NNE could get pretty insane, I expect some awesome pics and videos while I'm looking at clear radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 They'll be days and days of -15C LIs in Texas with nothing. Used to hate it...jsut seeing the clouds not able to muster any vertical depth. The cap is an issue that has to be dealt with. Heavy, heavy CIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Heavy, heavy CIN I understand what the concept of cinh is. I know marine air etc is where it likes to live. I understand the lifting action and the rising of air and how that leads to storms etc. I guess I don't grasp mentally what cinh actually is. Is it simply the opposite of instability? What is it in the atmosphere? Is there different types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Heavy, heavy CIN Anything in the mix that could help southern areas overcome the CIN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Heavy, heavy CIN If everything was shifted SE a couple hundred miles, it would be more interesting for SNE. Should be some pretty fun stuff though well up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I was in Northern NH in July when they had the line roll through from VT, and caused alot of wind damage, looks like they may get a repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I will be ready, especially for a nice shelf rolling across the lake. It would of course be nice to get some discretes too. One thing I learned from the April 16th, 2011 historic tornado outbreak in NC (see my profile pic), is the local WFO was keyed in ahead of SPC so definitely watch those afternoon discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Damn looks good up here... I'm leading in a few hours to head south to CT till Wednesday evening though. Hopefully don't miss like an F-2 moving through the heart of BTV's warning area, lol. I already got my 60mph straight-line winds and no power for 3 days earlier this summer, so I'm good on the heavy damage stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I understand what the concept of cinh is. I know marine air etc is where it likes to live. I understand the lifting action and the rising of air and how that leads to storms etc. I guess I don't grasp mentally what cinh actually is. Is it simply the opposite of instability? What is it in the atmosphere? Is there different types? CINH is just convective inhibition, so yes, it is like the opposite of Cape (you could think of it that way). It's different than marine tainted air b/c marine air stabilizes the llvl's and/or the sfc. In order to break the CIN you need to reach the convective temperature or have some sort of lifting mechanism. Depending on how strong the CIN is you might need some really strong forcing or very little. To get significant severe though you really want strong CIN in place b/c it allows for extreme amounts of instability to bottle up so when that cap breaks you get explosive updraft development and a storm can go from a single CU to a organized severe storm within minutes. The strong CIN can also prevent numerous development which allows for those discrete cells to just live forever and remain very potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Thursday still is very interesting for the rest of us. Could get overshadowed if anything substantial happens tomorrow and/or Wednesday but Thursday is definitely in the cards too...may be less significant overall but still a solid threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Thursday still is very interesting for the rest of us. Could get overshadowed if anything substantial happens tomorrow and/or Wednesday but Thursday is definitely in the cards too...may be less significant overall but still a solid threat Wondering what we see down here; obviously W CT/W MA better shot than us in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wondering what we see down here; obviously W CT/W MA better shot than us in the east. Thursday would likely be more of a wind/hail threat. We do have to worry about timing issues though as latest guidance slows down the front/trough a bit. However, the amount of forcing along this front is pretty insane, more typical of mid to late October and while we may lose sfc instability there is a decent amount of elevated cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Somewhat OT but still on the convection topic, does anybody remember the 10/4/11 flooding on the north shore? Some areas got 5" of rain in the early morning hours, a cell with torrential downpours just sat over the area for hours. Anyone remember what the atmospheric conditions were for that setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Somewhat OT but still on the convection topic, does anybody remember the 10/4/11 flooding on the north shore? Some areas got 5" of rain in the early morning hours, a cell with torrential downpours just sat over the area for hours. Anyone remember what the atmospheric conditions were for that setup? Guessing low shear if the storm just sat but I don't really remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I guess in SNE as Scooter said re: Tuesday PM..we can hope the complex bends right. You can think of many times when things were modeled to hit us and ended up going to our SW. Not likely..but the option remains there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I guess in SNE as Scooter said re: Tuesday PM..we can hope the complex bends right. You can think of many times when things were modeled to hit us and ended up going to our SW. Not likely..but the option remains there it is something to keep in mind. Models do struggle with handling MCS activity and they can end up being further SW than modeled. They also typically love to ride the highest instability/theta-e axis so it's important to watch where those are setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Very unusual synoptic scenario about to unfold over the next two days. In one sense we have this very, very dry air in place, but then just two days later we have to flood the area with DPs in the upper 60s and kinetic temperature potential into the mid 90s. One is left to wonder how such an atmospheric turn-around can transpire without consequence. It's very romantic to think along such dramatic themes, but... sometimes conditions just flip around without consequence, just the same. I recall something like this occurring much earlier in the summer, with a 1 day turn around going from dry in the 70s to 90s the next day. I remember seeing the rather densely packed thickness gradient over western NE modeled for a 12z time period, and then noting that by 00z the following evening the gradient was modeled well E of Logan. Edit: I think I found it... it was those last 2 days in May into June. Went from 70 at logan, to 88 than 94, boom boom turn around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'd have to think any tail end stuff tomorrow in NH or NE MA would be elevated. I can see echoes really struggling in that environment. More for Tuesday night, but yeah I just mention it as a small possibilty since there is still an isentropic push thanks to the instability spike aloft. The dynamics are all north though, but it wouldn't shock me for some sct stuff to clip nrn Essex county. Also, some weakening shwrs/tstms may approach srn VT and the Berks tomorrow morning. I haven't seen an instability push like this in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I guess in SNE as Scooter said re: Tuesday PM..we can hope the complex bends right. You can think of many times when things were modeled to hit us and ended up going to our SW. Not likely..but the option remains there I wouldn't hold out hope in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 More for Tuesday night, but yeah I just mention it as a small possibilty since there is still an isentropic push thanks to the instability spike aloft. The dynamics are all north though, but it wouldn't shock me for some sct stuff to clip nrn Essex county. Also, some weakening shwrs/tstms may approach srn VT and the Berks tomorrow morning. I haven't seen an instability push like this in a long time. avn_850_theta-e_24.gif avn_30_rh.gif Very impressive. I wonder if tomorrow evening in CNE we could get something to fire on the outflow boundary from the convection to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wednesday looks capped. Maybe typical cells going in pre frontal stuff over NY and NNE with orographic help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Very impressive. I wonder if tomorrow evening in CNE we could get something to fire on the outflow boundary from the convection to the north. I also wonder if whatver comes through Tuesday into Tuesday night leaves a remaining boundary over that region. Might serve for a focal point Wednesday despite heights pretty darn high. These setups are always difficult to figure out because these things can be off a few hours and there goes a forecast. The region up there is primed for one to perhaps three good events from tomorrow into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I also wonder if whatver comes through Tuesday into Tuesday night leaves a remaining boundary over that region. Might serve for a focal point Wednesday despite heights pretty darn high. These setups are always difficult to figure out because these things can be off a few hours and there goes a forecast. The region up there is primed for one to perhaps three good events from tomorrow into Thursday. I'm just glad the questions aren't focused around morning cloud debris, instability concerns, and or crapvection for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm just glad the questions aren't focused around morning cloud debris, instability concerns, and or crapvection for once. Hopefully any MCS debris clouds don't muck up tomorrow, but not sure it matters with the warm push. The morning stuff may target VT with the initial surge and then we'll see what happens in the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Hopefully any MCS debris clouds don't muck up tomorrow, but not sure it matters with the warm push. The morning stuff may target VT with the initial surge and then we'll see what happens in the aftn. Shouldn't be an issue...luckily with EML advections they tend to clear out the war sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Shouldn't be an issue...luckily with EML advections they tend to clear out the war sector Yeah, but just have to watch any upstream cirrus from convection tomorrow. Wednesday could be great up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 we may end up in no-man's land out of this whole deal. NNE potentially rocked in the next 24-36 hours...perhaps NYS can pop isolated PM cells on Wednesday...then after that i'm wondering if we are left with a garbage airmass and clouds on thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.