weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 My God...if they are able to develop discrete cells tomorrow across central/upstate NY and VT there could be a strong tornado tomorrow. I agree with Kevin, Thursday is the day for us down here. We may not have the EML, but lapse rates still look more than sufficient and shear is quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Thursday will be dependent on any debris clouds which may be around. It will be strongly forced though, but you need the CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 We really won't know the lapse rate situation for us until Tuesday night or Wednesday. It seems unlikely we will still have an EML present, however, we could still have mlvl lapse rates on order of 6.5-7 C/KM but this will really depend on contamination and if there are any showers around. The GFS does have some morning crap around which weakens lapse rates. EML or not though on Thursday, these are some pretty strong dynamics with intense forcing so if we even manage 1500 Cape or so that should lead to pockets of isolated severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I posted this in the Upstate NY thread but this is worth posting here too...hell, this is worth posting everywhere. This should be printed out and hung above your bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Maybe I pray I get into the fringe of the NNE stuff, being in NE MA as it slides SE. Dealing in reality, I probably have a better chance of seeing anything significant Tues night than Thurs. Say what you want, Thursday with dying eml and weakening lapse rates, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Rightfully so. Best dynamics look to stay north for now. It's kind of silly to get serious about SNE severe 4 days out, especially in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Just wow for tomorrow. The 12z NAM continues to look very impressive for upstate NY and into NNE. Same for 9z SREF. May not be appropriate to use the "D" word, but the NAM shows one heck of a squall line. SREF has 70% probabilities for a Derecho Composite Value of >5. Extreme instability, strong wind speeds and shear and having that EML is a big piece to the puzzle. Timing, cloud-cover and overcoming any CIN will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Just wow for tomorrow. The 12z NAM continues to look very impressive for upstate NY and into NNE. Same for 9z SREF. May not be appropriate to use the "D" word, but the NAM shows one heck of a squall line. SREF has 70% probabilities for a Derecho Composite Value of >5. Extreme instability, strong wind speeds and shear and having that EML is a big piece to the puzzle. Timing, cloud-cover and overcoming any CIN will be critical. Judging by some of the parameters mentioned here, I doubt there will be any trouble smashing the cinh too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Judging by some of the parameters mentioned here, I doubt there will be any trouble smashing the cinh too. The NAM actually holds the squall line intact down to the Albany area early tomorrow afternoon before it collapses. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the 12z guidance handles/trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure why everyone got so excited for Tuesday/Wed in SNE..that was never supposed to give us anything. Thursday is and always has been the big day for us Thanks for reading and comprehending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I will be ready here in the Champlain Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Just wow for tomorrow. The 12z NAM continues to look very impressive for upstate NY and into NNE. Same for 9z SREF. May not be appropriate to use the "D" word, but the NAM shows one heck of a squall line. SREF has 70% probabilities for a Derecho Composite Value of >5. Extreme instability, strong wind speeds and shear and having that EML is a big piece to the puzzle. Timing, cloud-cover and overcoming any CIN will be critical. Indeed it does. Depending on convective mode sig tornadoes aren't out of the question initially before things consolidate into an MCS. On the leading edge of the EML plume I could see places like the Berkshires through the Monadnocks getting some good storms Tuesday night. With ridge overhead on Wednesday and 700mb temps >10C we should be capped but we're going to be extremely unstable with the core of the EML overhead. NNE could rock again Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Indeed it does. Depending on convective mode sig tornadoes aren't out of the question initially before things consolidate into an MCS. On the leading edge of the EML plume I could see places like the Berkshires through the Monadnocks getting some good storms Tuesday night. With ridge overhead on Wednesday and 700mb temps >10C we should be capped but we're going to be extremely unstable with the core of the EML overhead. NNE could rock again Wednesday. No love for us in CT/RI and Eastern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Indeed it does. Depending on convective mode sig tornadoes aren't out of the question initially before things consolidate into an MCS. On the leading edge of the EML plume I could see places like the Berkshires through the Monadnocks getting some good storms Tuesday night. With ridge overhead on Wednesday and 700mb temps >10C we should be capped but we're going to be extremely unstable with the core of the EML overhead. NNE could rock again Wednesday. Wednesday has some fat CAPE and nice lapse rates in SNE, but as mentioned, the capping and CIN will be difficult to overcome. Not much of a trigger. It's too bad...12z NAM has a 850-500mb lapse rate of 7.1C/km with 3264J of MLCAPE at BDL 18z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Actually, having such strong capping Wednesday is a good thing really. Besides the incredible Cape profiles, there really isn't much shear on Wednesday...although fat cape profiles with a ton of cape and little shear can be awesome but the less in the way of activity around Wednesday, the lesser chance of cloud debris or any muck weakening lapse rates Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 so now we get the EML and shear is sorely lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I could see NE MA getting tickled by tail end storms Tuesday Night. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I could see NE MA getting tickled by tail end storms Tuesday Night. It's possible. I'd have to think any tail end stuff tomorrow in NH or NE MA would be elevated. I can see echoes really struggling in that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I could see NE MA getting tickled by tail end storms Tuesday Night. It's possible. That would tickle my fancy and my fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 If any discrete action gets going tomorrow...just wow. Also have to watch Wednesday across VT/NH and western ME for any discrete that can get going. The environment both days will be prime for strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 If any discrete action gets going tomorrow...just wow. Also have to watch Wednesday across VT/NH and western ME for any discrete that can get going. The environment both days will be prime for strong tornadoes. Agreed, especially Wednesday IMO. That's my ideal type severe day in New England... It's like fishing for Tuna instead of bluegills. Probably come back empty handed, but if not, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 NWS BTV from overnight:WITH OUR REGIONIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONSDEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPEVALUES 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE GREEN MTS WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAINVLY AND NRN NY. LESSER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NERN VT.THE INSTABILITY WILL BE BOLSTERED BY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYERPLUME WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES LIKELY AROUND 7C/KM ALOFT. THISVERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY RIBBON OF STRONG WLYDEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE (SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS). SOME OFTHE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE OFF THE CHART WITH 00Z NAMSHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 63KTS AT KMSS AND SFC-1KM HELICITY VALUESOF 500+ M2/S2 AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER WITH40-45 KT WINDS AT 850MB AND SFC-1KM SRH AROUND 375 M2/S2.HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED AREAWIDE IN BOTH MODEL SOLNS. ONLYQUESTION WILL BE A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT...AS THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WELL-DEFINED FEATUREIN PREVAILING WLY FLOW AND MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEUTRAL.CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS VERY HIGH...AND ANY SUBTLESHORTWAVE OR OROGRAPHIC FORCING WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO POTENTIALISOLATED SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 NWS BTV from overnight: WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE GREEN MTS WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND NRN NY. LESSER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NERN VT. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE BOLSTERED BY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES LIKELY AROUND 7C/KM ALOFT. THIS VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY RIBBON OF STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE (SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS). SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE OFF THE CHART WITH 00Z NAM SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 63KTS AT KMSS AND SFC-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 500+ M2/S2 AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT WEAKER WITH 40-45 KT WINDS AT 850MB AND SFC-1KM SRH AROUND 375 M2/S2. HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED AREAWIDE IN BOTH MODEL SOLNS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE IN PREVAILING WLY FLOW AND MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEUTRAL. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS VERY HIGH...AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OR OROGRAPHIC FORCING WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. The whole discussion is awesome. Banacos would know something about this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm interested to see what SPC has to say in their afternoon Day 2 outlook. It probably stays as SLGT, but I wonder if they hit the wording stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan45s Lifted Index Minus 10 in Boston Wednesday, Is that a record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan45s Lifted Index Minus 10 in Boston Wednesday, Is that a record? 12z NAM goes below -11 for a time in southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 thats insane for around here Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan45s Lifted Index Minus 10 in Boston Wednesday, Is that a record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan45s Lifted Index Minus 10 in Boston Wednesday, Is that a record? Not sure what it was in Boston but LI's had to be close to that a d the same with 5/31/98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan45s Lifted Index Minus 10 in Boston Wednesday, Is that a record? Wow, so instability isn't going to be hard to come by lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 thats insane for around here yeah but it's akin to the kind of numbers that happen to our SW all summer long...while they just bake away and nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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