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Sept 11-12 Wednesday, Thursday Storm Threat


free_man

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That's fine!  We want to be able to continue to destabilize and wait for that pre-frontal to continue working east b/c then the LLJ will increase further and this also allows an opportunity for some of those stronger mlvl winds to work in.  Honestly, our prime time would be from like 4-7 r 8 PM if we want the chance for big stiff.

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That's fine!  We want to be able to continue to destabilize and wait for that pre-frontal to continue working east b/c then the LLJ will increase further and this also allows an opportunity for some of those stronger mlvl winds to work in.  Honestly, our prime time would be from like 4-7 r 8 PM if we want the chance for big stiff.

so you think new stuff pops up vs waiting for the activity in far western NY to get here?

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so you think new stuff pops up vs waiting for the activity in far western NY to get here?

 

More stuff could certainly fire further east from that action.  That stuff is not only firing from the pre-frontal nearby but it's being enahnced by the leftover boundaries (that's what I meant earlier).  For us, we are still further removed from any strong forcing/lift but that pre-frontal is slowly kicking eastward.  

 

I would watch for after 4 PM or so further east..perhaps as early as 3:30

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15z HRRR says the first batch kills the air-mass, only has a weak line reaching NW CT later on around 10 p.m.

 

I'm not really sold on that.  I think the pre-frontal is the main show of anything and will continue to spark off activity as it slowly progresses east...it should start moving quicker though as it gets a kick from the front/trough.  THe forcing along the front/trough will probably develop more showers and storms but nothing big.

 

It's either the pre-frontal or nothing

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