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Sept 11-12 Wednesday, Thursday Storm Threat


free_man

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Epic chase fail on my part. I tried for the Vergennes storm and got stuck in traffic around Shelburne. Needless to say I got there too late and I can't get to the stuff up north. Wow what a crappy day.

Spear Street is a good alternative for trying to go south out of Burlington if Rt 7 is all jammed up. 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0554 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN MA...VT/NH...MUCH OF ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521...

VALID 112254Z - 120030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN VT/NH AND ME WILL POSE AN

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG

SURGING COLD POOL LOCATED OVER ERN NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENTER WRN

MA AND SRN VT/NH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AT 2245Z...SURFACE HEAT AXIS...WHERE TEMPERATURES

RESIDE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WAS POSITIONED FROM ERN PA NEWD INTO

CNTRL ME. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY COOLING ALONG THIS

AXIS...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW

70S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.

ELONGATED COLD POOL IS SURGING ENEWD AT 30 KT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF

THE INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER WSWLY SHEAR

NEAR 30 KT...SEMI-ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE

ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES FROM ERN NY INTO

SRN VT/NH AND WRN MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER

NE...WEAKENING 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES FROM NRN VT/NH INTO ME SUGGESTS

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABILIZING. THUS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS AND ANY

ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SSEWD INTO THE

AREA.

..GARNER.. 09/11/2013

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