OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 00z SPC WRF lights up most of northern and western PA along with almost all of upstate NY. Dying thunderstorm complex makes it into SNE after 00z. I don't like that it isn't handling current convection north of the border very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I don't like that it isn't handling current convection north of the border very well. Or the convection from Green Bay WI into the Northern LP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 00z SPC WRF lights up most of northern and western PA along with almost all of upstate NY. Dying thunderstorm complex makes it into SNE after 00z. Could see a situation where surface based weakens and the elevated really rocks after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Sorry guys checking in from North Central PA, but you guys seem to have a lot of great mets. What is tomorrow and Thursday looking like in these parts? Any chance of a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 Thursday looks pretty good for WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Don't you have to work?I've literally been saving some time off to use in situations like this. If anything, it's almost like reporting out in the field - if I'm lucky enough to get some good footage. We'll see. Sorry guys checking in from North Central PA, but you guys seem to have a lot of great mets. What is tomorrow and Thursday looking like in these parts? Any chance of a storm?Both days have potential. Today, you have the benefit of a subtle shortwave coming out of WV and moving NE through PA. Most of the models want to initiate some convection over central PA around midday or early afternoon. The most explosive "potential" may lie further NE though, closer to more impressive deep layer year and a general proximity to the front. That will be advancing toward the U.S. border later tonight. Tomorrow has some potential ahead of the cold front as well, but instability and cloud-debris are bigger question marks in my mind. Perhaps to offset that somewhat, wind shear will become more supportive on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Let's see what the next 2 days bring, not expecting much this far east, but hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 All signs seem to be pointing to a big next 2 days for most of SNE. Let's hope it comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 We'll see about tomorrow. It kind of sucks there is a disconnect between the stronger forcing/shear and the best instability. if the front was moving through during prime instability tomorrow could be quite interesting. Although models try to push stuff through between 21z-0z. NAM/GFS actually have a helicity spike after 21z so I guess we'll have to watch for any discrete stuff that may form ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 We'll see about tomorrow. It kind of sucks there is a disconnect between the stronger forcing/shear and the best instability. if the front was moving through during prime instability tomorrow could be quite interesting. Although models try to push stuff through between 21z-0z. NAM/GFS actually have a helicity spike after 21z so I guess we'll have to watch for any discrete stuff that may form ahead of the main line. Focus on today/tonight..and worry about tomorrow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Focus on today/tonight..and worry about tomorrow tomorrow There really isn't much else to focus on today about. We know what's at play and it's just a wait and see type deal. We can look at all the model data we want right now and interpret it but it all comes down to whether or not we can weaken the cap enough and get enough lift to generate convection and we won't know until it's just about happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 FWIW, saw some ACCAS on the way into work this morning..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 FWIW, saw some ACCAS on the way into work this morning..... Same her eon the way to school!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The 9z HRRR keeps all the activity away from SNE but it does have some sort of weakening cluster on the NY/CT border by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It seems like we will actually remove SB CIN today, however, we can't say the same for ML CIN. The HRRR does weaken, if not remove most SB CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'm hoping the 12z soundings will be out before my class starts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Meh at today. Looks great north of Albany and into Vermont but not so much around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Pretty good lapse rates across NNE this morning on the RAOBs. 7-7.5C/km from BUF to ALB to GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'd say SE of a HFD/ORH/BED line is pretty safely outside looking in today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Northern Maine has already had some warned cells this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I will take my organized bow echo and shelf Looks like today could be the day in the CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston41s Confidence is growing in the possibility for a severe thunderstorms after 6 or 7 pm across Western MA/Northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 ORH Springfield Hartford in circle of nws map of area expected to see severe thunderstorms in that graphic posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Thought parts of NNE could see some action last night, but further south than what occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Northern Maine has already had some warned cells this am GYX had a warning storm 3-4 AM for the western mts. Nice looking patch of red was headed my way about 4, but it died at the doorstep - 0.02". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston41s Confidence is growing in the possibility for a severe thunderstorms after 6 or 7 pm across Western MA/Northern CT. Yeah if they happen it's going to be an evening or nighttime deal..And timing of day in this setup won't matter. Just gonna have to see how radars look later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Impressive EML. The core is a bit under 500mb... so the 500-700mb lapse rates aren't nearly as impressive at 550-750mb where it's nearly dry adiabatic thanks to that weak inversion near 525 mb. The question is whether or not we can remove the CIN later today. Best chance will be to our west but western areas from the Berkshires to the Litchfield Hills have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 According to BOX we all have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 According to BOX we all have a chance There's a chance - but the biggest threat for severe wx is clearly northwest of us through upstate NY and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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