Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 MUCAPE up to 5300 is just lol. High-end outlier, but still crazy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I think the most unstable H7-H5 lapse rates in the country are at Albany and Buffalo right now. Source region is monsooned out. Courtesy of Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 13271_trj001.gif Courtesy of Kansas. Can thank the ridging for that out there....and Emporia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 00z RAP erodes most of the SBCIN by noon tomorrow and starts to fire storms in central PA by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Pretty nice storms going on over northern Michigan. That forcing or any convectively induced wave in there would be progged to arrive over the region by early afternoon based on current speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Pretty nice storms going on over northern Michigan. That forcing or any convectively induced wave in there would be progged to arrive over the region by early afternoon based on current speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 NAM still rips that feature in from the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 SPS and MWS up for those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 SPS and MWS up for those storms. Those are working through some hefty shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 lol at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 RPM lights up the area from UNV to BGM and then slides all of it ENE into VT/NY/W ME with subtle forcing. Little if anything here in SNE. This seems to line up well with the area where cap is the weakest and height falls are most notable 18z-00z. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 lol at the NAM4km isn't all that crazy. It shows a few storms firing from WV to C PA into C NY with a monster line just north of the Canadian border. Other than that, meh. (thru 22z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Oh God...oh God the RAP has a pocket of 5000 J/KG SBcape and MUcapes between 4000-5000 J/KG. Hell, could even be higher...just might have so much cape it goes off the scale. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 RPM lights up the area from UNV to BGM and then slides all of it ENE into VT/NY/W ME with subtle forcing. Little if anything here in SNE. This seems to line up well with the area where cap is the weakest and height falls are most notable 18z-00z. Makes sense to me. That area is going to get nailed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Oh God...oh God the RAP has a pocket of 5000 J/KG SBcape and MUcapes between 4000-5000 J/KG. Hell, could even be higher...just might have so much cape it goes off the scale. Insane4km NAM has a max SBCAPE value of 5336 just to the NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 4km NAM has a max SBCAPE value of 5336 just to the NW of NYC. Filthy...filthy...even if overdone, just to be talking about a value like that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 00z NAM simulated satellite is sick. As those towering cells blow up over C NY the outflow blows up and covers the northern half of the state. 50kft+ echoes like Wiz suggested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 4km NAM has a max SBCAPE value of 5336 just to the NW of NYC. Filthy...filthy...even if overdone, just to be talking about a value like that here. lol - we get it that it's going to be unstable. But save your drooling until you find a way to bust through the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 If we some how do find a way though some of the storms will be insane lol - we get it that it's going to be unstable. But save your drooling until you find a way to bust through the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 lol - we get it that it's going to be unstable. But save your drooling until you find a way to bust through the cap. Put some dry ice on Kevin's head and send him up in a rocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'm not too excited for southern New England. Depending on morning data, I'll probably be heading into PA or NY for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'm not too excited for southern New England. Depending on morning data, I'll probably be heading into PA or NY for the day. Don't you have to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 By the way, skies unzipped in IN and OH this afternoon where torridity was broken by massive out blast of airmass thunder convection type. TIP TRANSLATED : thunderstorms broke through the cap today in Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Nice 60 dBZ core from ktyx at 23 kft. Canada rocking tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 lol - we get it that it's going to be unstable. But save your drooling until you find a way to bust through the cap.He literally drops his pants at his desk 4x a week with his eyes closed dreaming of these parameters let him have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Nice 60 dBZ core from ktyx at 23 kft. Canada rocking tonight. Yeah indeed. We get the Canadian radar data on the work computers now... those storms are ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Still 3500 J/KG of MLcape across portions of PA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 He literally drops his pants at his desk 4x a week with his eyes closed dreaming of these parameters let him have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I'm a fan of that line out in the midwest having some southerly action in its direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 00z SPC WRF lights up most of northern and western PA along with almost all of upstate NY. Dying thunderstorm complex makes it into SNE after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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