Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I wasn't really discussing it with regards to being a difference maker...just love looking at numbers like that lol. Sometimes I'll just look at mesoanalysis of the central Plains when they have these massive cape values and just stare at them for several minutes. I was staring at some insane Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado values today up in NY. It's a shame they went to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM suddenly cool temps in ern NY at H7, seems like it's related to the line coming through at 21z. There is also cooling at H5 so def seems like some sort of cold pool deing depicted by the models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I was staring at some insane Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado values today up in NY. It's a shame they went to waste. Those numbers were through the roof. Sucks to waste some awesome ingredients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 There is also cooling at H5 so def seems like some sort of cold pool deing depicted by the models/ The NAM just looks funny to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM just looks funny to me. There are at least a few funky things being advertised on it. Including precip falling immediately after mid-level RH values drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM just looks funny to me. God the soundings tomorrow afternoon are just obscene. Much less CIN than previous runs with notable cooling and cap removal around 700 mb. That's on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM just looks funny to me. Unless the GFS or Euro show something similar I would certainly take it with a grain of salt. The NAM loves to do some crazy things. However, though, one thing that isn't entirely crazy are the height falls and the NAM has decent height falls occurring. Also, 700mb temps cool regardless b/c it appears the core of those +700mb temps slide east as the day goes on. I'm still though not really sold on much developing tomorrow, though it's nice to see various models spitting QPF out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 God the soundings tomorrow afternoon are just obscene. Much less CIN than previous runs with notable cooling and cap removal around 700 mb. That's on the NAM. If the NAM is right, that little amount of CIN would be gone with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 There is also cooling at H5 so def seems like some sort of cold pool deing depicted by the models/the cooler H5 temps are mostly directly related to the steep lapse rates of the EML itself. When doing composite studies for the paper, you would see zero or even slightly negative H5 temp anomalies in the EML where your 850/700 temp anomalies were through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 the cooler H5 temps are mostly directly related to the steep lapse rates of the EML itself. When doing composite studies for the paper, you would see zero or even slightly negative H5 temp anomalies in the EML where your 850/700 temp anomalies were through the roof. That makes a great deal of sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The sounding on the NAM is akin to the clown snowfall maps oit spits out in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The sounding on the NAM is akin to the clown snowfall maps oit spits out in the winter. lol... it's like looking at an RPM snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The sounding on the NAM is akin to the clown snowfall maps oit spits out in the winter. Even a great deal of Cape all the way up to just about the EL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 A few storms popping in southern Canada on the leading edge of the EML aloft. Surface front is still hung up, as you can see from the low clouds. But aloft it's roaring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Even a great deal of Cape all the way up to just about the EL For fun I looked for the most obscene forecast sounding and it comes to BAF. 4182 MLCAPE, LI of -9.5, LL lapse rate of 7.9°C/km and a Best CAPE of 4880. Salivate over this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Haha, jesus ... you almost wonder if at some point it gets so unstable that the trigger is instability in its self and an a-bomb just goes off.. By the way, skies unzipped in IN and OH this afternoon where torridity was broken by massive out blast of airmass thunder convection type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We'll probably only see some isolated severe on Thursday as things look delayed. Best forcing arrives after 0z but there may be some instability left over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I can't wait for the 0z observed soundings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I can't wait for the 0z observed soundings! Sneak peak from me. Albany LI of -4 KI of 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Sneak peak from me. Albany LI of -4 KI of 38. That is pretty solid for this time of night at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Hello EML!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Sick 0-3km shear. Too bad nothing popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 850's of 22.0 at ALY and 21.8 at BUF per soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 BTV WRF is out of its teets later tomorrow and Thursday. It can be aggressive at times, but I actually look at it since it has had some success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 BTV WRF is out of its teets later tomorrow and Thursday. It can be aggressive at times, but I actually look at it since it has had some success.nutty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 nutty Congrats Berkshires on two derechos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 BTV WRF is out of its teets later tomorrow and Thursday. It can be aggressive at times, but I actually look at it since it has had some success. It's main issue is going too nuts with QPF, especially in certain situations with orographics. It understands the terrain and local effects to wind, precip, and temps but seems to go on steroids sometimes. Overall it's a good meso-scale model though usually WRT timing and placement of features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Congrats Berkshires on two derechos. I always enjoy when those <= 4km grid models depict those classic mesohighs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I think the most unstable H7-H5 lapse rates in the country are at Albany and Buffalo right now. Source region is monsooned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The higher res/non hydrostatic models are going berserk tomorrow. We'll see... still a lot of CIN and not a lot of forcing. Things look better west... still not sure we'll get much SE of Berkshires but if something pops it will be explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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