CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 that is some pretty serious heat over the southern lakes / northern ohio valley. 95-98 in a lot of areas. but, completely void of any convective activity thus far too until you get down to the ohio river. Yeah definitely is... lots of low 90s over low 70s from Cleveland on south to N KY. Pretty steamy for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I have the meso analysis saved somewhere at home, but yeah the morning EML was classic. For what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Here is the SPC analysis 700-500mb lapse rates for 6/1/11, for what they're worth: I changed your image in this reply to 17z...to show how that reanalysis tool is a bit jumpy. I remember the lapse rates more like the 17z frame...though I do remember the steeper stuff in the morning like Scott was referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 On the maps I'm looking at (which are fairly low resolution) I didn't see anything on the dynamic tropopause (1.5 PVU sfc) that jumped out at me on either the NAM or GFS. You might be able to shed more light with better maps. I mean it is very subtle, but there is some hint of a wave on the NAM. GFS is a little quicker in the day with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Atmosphere over W PA back through OH is a bit more capped today than is progged over us tomorrow. There's a pocket of +12C at 700mb there and synoptically... heights have been rising at 500mb through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Atmosphere over W PA back through OH is a bit more capped today than is progged over us tomorrow. There's a pocket of +12C at 700mb there and synoptically... heights have been rising at 500mb through the day. 90/74 at ROC right now...Kevin wishes his football trip was several days early. That's pretty nuts for this time of year. Most of lower Ontario has dews in the 70s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 if we can just get Wiz to do the scoreboard at a little league game tomorrow...someone might stand a chc of getting a good cell out of this. not that i'll be chasing, but if i could...i feel like i'd want to be out a bit west of ALB to start the day and see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 if we can just get Wiz to do the scoreboard at a little league game tomorrow...someone might stand a chc of getting a good cell out of this. not that i'll be chasing, but if i could...i feel like i'd want to be out a bit west of ALB to start the day and see what develops. ChrisM and I may do some chasing tomorrow. Probably going to skip math tomorrow. I'm just going to send an email and see what we're doing but I think it's still review of some topics from college algebra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's so intriguing seeing all models develop QPF tomorrow. When you have strong caps models can really struggle to develop anything at all. Obviously, there are times where they are also too aggressive but for every model to have something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 15z srefs don't appear to be so generous. It's so intriguing seeing all models develop QPF tomorrow. When you have strong caps models can really struggle to develop anything at all. Obviously, there are times where they are also too aggressive but for every model to have something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Trop.jpg I mean it is very subtle, but there is some hint of a wave on the NAM. GFS is a little quicker in the day with it. Yeah that shows up in different ways, but that's it. Utah state has a decent dynamic tropo map, but for some reason the link does not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Some may find this interesting...I was able to dig up some DT maps from 2011 and here's 00z on June 2nd: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah that shows up in different ways, but that's it. Utah state has a decent dynamic tropo map, but for some reason the link does not work. http://weather.utah.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Waiting on some higher resolution maps, but 18z NAM looks more impressive for convective prospects tomorrow. NAM 700mb VV's for 21z tomorrow...looks like a little something swings through and kicks off some convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 http://weather.utah.edu/ What the hell? Hmm, the one I had didn't work. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Waiting on some higher resolution maps, but 18z NAM looks more impressive for convective prospects tomorrow. NAM 700mb VV's for 21z tomorrow...looks like a little something swings through and kicks off some convection. Careful with those images, because it can be tough to decipher what is synoptic lift vs what could be modeled convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Careful with those images, because it can be tough to decipher what is synoptic lift vs what could be modeled convection. Yes. I have to make sure I don't go full-fledged weenie mode on what will probably be another disappointing marginal severe setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Tomorrow we will be looking at 4000-5000 SBcape with 3500-4000 MLcape and MUcape up to 3500-4500 J/KG with great cape in the -10c to -30C layer. If we can get anything...someone will be eating CG's for dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yes. I have to make sure I don't go full-fledged weenie mode on what will probably be another disappointing marginal severe setup. I didn't mean it like that..lol. Just saying it can be tough to decipher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I didn't mean it like that..lol. Just saying it can be tough to decipher. That's true, especially with the NAM possibly suffering from convective feedback, but we don't know. Wiz, the NAM CAPEs may be a bit overdone, as we've seen many times before. With that said, there's not much difference between 3000 and 4000 once you get up that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 90/74 at ROC right now...Kevin wishes his football trip was several days early. That's pretty nuts for this time of year. Most of lower Ontario has dews in the 70s right now. often times eml's are associated with big heat (for obvious reasons). One thing the EML does is allow for big sfc dews through underruning...not as easy to mix out. Combine that with 7-8.5c/km lapse rates = huge CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM gets a bit carried away pushing dews to 76-77 tomorrow in the Hudson Valley, lol. An impressive air-mass, but perhaps not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 it's pointless to look at specifics when it comes to model generated convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 upton not that impressed with storm chances tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 FWIW, the 18z 4km NAM fires up a pretty good line of storms from upstate NY into NNE tomorrow, but has next to nothing in SNE. Some convection tries to get going in NE PA, but it fizzles. The depiction here lines up with what the SPC had in their latest Day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 That's true, especially with the NAM possibly suffering from convective feedback, but we don't know. Wiz, the NAM CAPEs may be a bit overdone, as we've seen many times before. With that said, there's not much difference between 3000 and 4000 once you get up that high. Is that what the NAM shows? I didn't look at the 18z NAM...I was just looking at the environment to our west and gauging what we may be in for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Is that what the NAM shows? I didn't look at the 18z NAM...I was just looking at the environment to our west and gauging what we may be in for tomorrow. 18z NAM has MUCAPE near 4000, MLCAPE 3000-3500 and SBCAPE of up to 4000. GFS was 2500-3000 for MUCAPE and SBCAPE of 3000-3500. Details aren't too important, so if it's 3000 vs. 4000, that's not really much of a difference either way. I didn't mean to come off snappy or anything. Few would doubt we're going to have plenty of instability tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The NAM suddenly cool temps in ern NY at H7, seems like it's related to the line coming through at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 18z NAM has MUCAPE near 4000, MLCAPE 3000-3500 and SBCAPE of up to 4000. GFS was 2500-3000 for MUCAPE and SBCAPE of 3000-3500. Details aren't too important, so if it's 3000 vs. 4000, that's not really much of a difference either way. I didn't mean to come off snappy or anything. Few would doubt we're going to have plenty of instability tomorrow... I wasn't really discussing it with regards to being a difference maker...just love looking at numbers like that lol. Sometimes I'll just look at mesoanalysis of the central Plains when they have these massive cape values and just stare at them for several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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