Chrisrotary12 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS is running out of steam. HRRR handled this very well; except for maybe missing the southeast motion that most complexes go through. According to the HRRR, storm chances for this afternoon are shot in upstate NY and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS is running out of steam. HRRR handled this very well; except for maybe missing the southeast motion that most complexes go through. According to the HRRR, storm chances for this afternoon are shot in upstate NY and NNE. I was saying the same. No redevelopment today if you go by the HRRR. The airmass won't really be able to recover and the WF is slow in getting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I know the RH plots had the debris signature yesterday, but figured more could develop upstream late day after it departed. I wouldn't rule out something north of the Lakes or nrn NY state this evening heading SE. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Rain... nice.. haven't had much in the last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS is running out of steam. HRRR handled this very well; except for maybe missing the southeast motion that most complexes go through. According to the HRRR, storm chances for this afternoon are shot in upstate NY and NNE. This dying MCS is just perfectly wrongly timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think we may be able to rule out any real surface based instability in BTV today due to this morning MCS (which seems to be a little later than originally forecast). Satellite doesn't show any breaks anytime soon upstream (at least not for 2-3 hours or so). 61/57 at the Morrisville-Stowe Airport right now... not going to get it done. East of the mountains is screwed today with surface based stuff. That cold, dense air will just sit there until the sun can come out regardless of how much it warms at H85 and above. The Spine will do its CAD deal and keep any surface warming at bay unless some insolation takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I was saying the same. No redevelopment today if you go by the HRRR. The airmass won't really be able to recover and the WF is slow in getting up here. The models may have been a little aggressive with how far north that warm front got. I'm down in North Woodstock, CT and its 65 degrees out. Blizz may say the dews are also in the mid-60s, but its hoodie weather right now with no heat on in the camp. Pouring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS is running out of steam. HRRR handled this very well; except for maybe missing the southeast motion that most complexes go through. According to the HRRR, storm chances for this afternoon are shot in upstate NY and NNE. Glad I didn't go up there this morning. I was planning on it initially, but made the right move. We'll have to see what the next two days have in store. (Still can't rule out a few stray storms today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Pretty gusty at some points in this mod rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 BTV removed all enhanced wording and even the word "thunderstorm" from the VT forecasts. Ahhh life in New England for severe weather... we'll see if tomorrow brings anything. This Afternoon: Showers likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1022 AM EDT TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE SLVWITH ISLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND MOVING ESE.OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...MCS NOT SO CONVECTIVE OVER THE NORTHCOUNTRY WITH RAIN AND ISLD THUNDER/LIGHTNING...MAINLY IN THE SRNZONES. UPSTREAM OVC SKIES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRYCLOUDY AND LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. ONLY AREAEXPECTED TO BREAK INTO SOME SUN WILL BE THE SLV AND PSBLY THEADKS. HAVE LIMITED GUSTY WIND AND SM HAIL WORDING TO NRN NY THISAFTN. OTHERWISE ONLY CHC POPS FOR TSTMS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSOLIMIT MAX TEMPS...HAVE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 MCS is running out of steam. HRRR handled this very well; except for maybe missing the southeast motion that most complexes go through. According to the HRRR, storm chances for this afternoon are shot in upstate NY and NNE. Yup, Pretty meh is it has lost the secondary line of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I'm not really sure that any of the high resolution models showed a second line of storms this afternoon. Some had a later timing, allowing for the morning MCS to strengthen. Some didn't even had the MCS at all and kept everything up to the NE. HRRR had the rough idea, although looking back the timing and placement was off a bit. What a waste for an otherwise good looking setup on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We will what SPC has to say about it shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The models may have been a little aggressive with how far north that warm front got. I'm down in North Woodstock, CT and its 65 degrees out. Blizz may say the dews are also in the mid-60s, but its hoodie weather right now with no heat on in the camp. Pouring too. Welcome back to 'hood bro. It's your home away from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 got really windy here the last 15 minutes and the clouds are racing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Timing is everything in these setups and having it be off skews the results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Rate of decay of the MCS combined with it's rate of motion should have skies pretty dramatically improving from west to east across SNE this afternoon. Getting late in the year where recouping on diabatic contribution/SBCAPE is tougher after 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Welcome back to 'hood bro. It's your home away from home. Lovely day down here Was thinking about going for a canoe in Bigelow Hollow but not so sure right now, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Reduced to "See Text": ..NORTHEAST U.S THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE 850-700-MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH A EWD-ADVANCING EML IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING CANADIAN TROUGH. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /I.E. AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-3000 J PER KG/...ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ABSENCE OF A DETECTABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS NOTION IS CONFIRMED BY LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED. LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS. 1 down 2 chances to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 The models may have been a little aggressive with how far north that warm front got. I'm down in North Woodstock, CT and its 65 degrees out. Blizz may say the dews are also in the mid-60s, but its hoodie weather right now with no heat on in the camp. Pouring too. yeah its chilly out here today, surprisingly chilly actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 SPC WRF has a line coming through on the 00z run. It's not a big surprise today with the MCS moving through.... it was modeled yesterday and how many times has that caused instability issues? Lots. We'll see what can fire later on. I still think is the possibility of that way upstream. But not certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Lovely day down here Was thinking about going for a canoe in Bigelow Hollow but not so sure right now, haha. I'll beep to you on may way through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 temps and dews jumping here with the sun coming out 75/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Wednesday was always the better day for N NY and VT. These types of setups today may do well out in the Great Plains, but not so much in the NE in September. Still can't rule out an iso severe storm today, but i never got the huge excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 yeah its chilly out here today, surprisingly chilly actually. I have the air on in the truck on calls. Muggy as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 nice rains here, finally! cool out 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I have the air on in the truck on calls. Muggy as hell heat? c'mon it's not that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I'm actually chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 heat? c'mon it's not that cold. AC..Dews upper 60's. Tickles of sweat trickling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 AC..Dews upper 60's. Tickles of sweat tricklingLol you can not be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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