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Sept 11-12 Wednesday, Thursday Storm Threat

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2013 at 10:49 PM, weatherwiz said:

Tuesday/Wednesday are the better days for any significant severe potential, though Thursday could feature severe...it just all depends on whether or not we still have really steep mid-level lapse rates around and of course cloud debris.

Wednesday looks dry and nasty humid
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2013 at 10:55 PM, Wx Hype said:

Wednesday looks dry and nasty humid

 

Heights fall throughout the day on Wednesday and there may be some sort of s/w that moves through aloft so Wednesday could be active.  We definitely do have to watch Thursday though b/c the forcing along the front is very strong

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2013 at 11:06 PM, weatherwiz said:

Heights fall throughout the day on Wednesday and there may be some sort of s/w that moves through aloft so Wednesday could be active. We definitely do have to watch Thursday though b/c the forcing along the front is very strong

The kinematic support should be a done deal, but I'm worried we lose the impressive mid-level lapse rates. With that said, if we can limit cloud-debris, it could get very interesting.
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2013 at 11:11 PM, Quincy said:

The kinematic support should be a done deal, but I'm worried we lose th impressive mid-level lapse rates. With that said, if we can limit cloud-debris, it could get very interesting.

 

The core of the EML should be on Tuesday but I agree, we'll definitely have to watch and see how the EML evolves and what happens with those lapse rates.  The models do at least keep lapse rates fairly steep through Thursday which is good.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 9/8/2013 at 11:17 PM, weatherwiz said:

The core of the EML should be on Tuesday but I agree, we'll definitely have to watch and see how the EML evolves and what happens with those lapse rates.  The models do at least keep lapse rates fairly steep through Thursday which is good.  

 

Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding. 

 

There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 12:14 AM, CT Rain said:

Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding.

There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development.

Perhaps something similar to May 26, 2010?

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 12:14 AM, CT Rain said:

Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding. 

 

There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development.

850-500mb lapse rates actually remain around 6.5C/km for much of SNE on Wednesday, then tickle down to about 6 by 18z Thursday. 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 12:29 AM, weatherwiz said:

Perhaps something similar to May 26, 2010?

The flow for that event appeared to be from the north (front dropping south) as the upper level ridge was centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Here, the flow on Tuesday appears more WSW to ENE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0526.php

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

The closest analog is 8/7/2007, but that setup was a bit further south and more amplified. FWIW, that brought a line of numerous severe thunderstorm reports from W-E across PA, NJ and NY, including 4 tornadoes. I could see a similar setup, just a few hundred miles further north, if the NAM and to a lesser extent GFS is correct.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/070807_rpts.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0808.php

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 3:14 AM, weatherwiz said:

Tuesday is all central/ northern NYS and VT perhaps NH. Tuesday night we could...could have activity down here

Sweet, that's what I had thought. Figures best shot at legit sne severe coincides with the semester starting again.

Oh btw I read your blog about the setup, great read!

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 4:16 AM, Arnold214 said:

Should be sitting on 3000-4000 Joules most locations in New England Wed aftn. Just need to use it.

 

Yeah it's like tomorrow in WI, there are some jacked-up parameters if they are able to be tapped into, but strong CIN looks to overcome that at least tomorrow and may prevent something more substantial from firing off (at least discrete-wise) on Tuesday/Wednesday.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
  • Author
Posted

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON SEP 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NY AND NW
VT...

...NY/VT/NRN PA...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TO NEAR THE NY-QUEBEC BORDER
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NY INTO
NW PA. THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
AND SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NY AND POSSIBLY IN NRN
PA. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FOR SYRACUSE NY AND BURLINGTON VT SHOW
MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF CELLS
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY AROUND 400 M2/S2 SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO
THREAT. IF THE PREFERRED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE DOMINANT. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT RISK SMALL AND FOCUSED IN NRN NY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INSTABILITY ARE VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAXIMIZED.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 9/9/2013 at 11:35 AM, Wx Hype said:

We weren't talking about you. We are looking forward to Thursday

 

I know that, but they weren't "many" that got excited.

 

I still think there may be some weakening shwrs/storm moving into western areas like the berks in the morning, and then a small chance for something late Tuesday or Tuesday Night..especially NE MA.

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