Thunder Road Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 With the final score I was 2 points off from a trophy! So close! And tied with me. I was putting numbers into the hypothetical verification yesterday which is where I was getting my apparently inflated rankings from. I'll have to settle for 25th overall, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 With the wind coming in at 13kts for yesterday I "moved up" to 515 overall after HOU. Considering I was around 1200 after day 2 could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Welcome back forecasters! Off we go to Cheyenne, Wyoming this and next week! If you really want to know, here is my forecasting method for Cheyenne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 38/27/20/0 had no idea what to do for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 40/29/20/0 - I took a real hard look at the winds and it seems as though MOS has been overdoing it today. Today's climo report and METAR's didn't get over 22 kts and with the winds relaxing tonight as the pressure gradient slacks off and the lapse rates decrease, I don't see any reason to go gangbusters. I was hesitant even to go 20 kts but 17-21 would be my ballpark figure. Tomorrow's high I have no idea on whether the NAM or GFS has the right idea, I compared the two bufkit files and found virtually no difference outside of the lapse rates near the surface. I went with the GFS because when in doubt, I'll take the GFS over the NAM. PS. If you climo'd today, OUCH! 65/35/12/0.03 for climo. (~30 points vs. actual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 40/28/24/0.00 My wind is a bit ballsy, but NAM, GFS and RAP are all spitting out 20-22 kts, and the NAM MOS and GFS MOS both had 24. The ASOS is elevated a bit above the surroundings, and with the climo report usually being higher than any actual observed wind, I didn't think 24 was too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 41/29/21/0 With a solid cold air advection regime tonight with clouds didn't see a need to stray far at all from guidance for the low...with most models spitting out right around 29. There was some discrepancy with highs for tomorrow...I believe the NAM MOS was spitting out 40 and the GFS MOS 43...both raw models hit 40 or a shade higher. Given the temp briefly popped up to 41 late this afternoon despite clouds and CAA felt we'd at least get that warm tomorrow despite a cold start and cooler 700mb temps assuming we see the sun peak out. With the slackening gradient didn't want to go quite as high as MOS for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 38/27/27/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 38/26/27/0 Probably too high on wind. Tomorrow night looks good for radiative cooling so if the low doesn't get to 26 tonight I think it will before midnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Already down to 30 at 11pm MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Good thing I won Houston. Cheyenne's not off to a good start for me, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I went 40/26/20/0... rooting for low winds and warm temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Went with 39/28/20/0 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 47/27/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 48/26/11/0 winds are lower than most but the mos' have been overdoing it the last couple of days. wxmeddler: i really hope you meant 47... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 48/26/11/0 wxmeddler: i really hope you meant 47... Yeah, 47. Sorry, I was thinking today's high. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 51/23/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 47/25/14/0Didn't really have time to look at anything and may have been better off guidancing...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 49/26/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 48/24/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Ouch. Never doubt a clear calm night with HP overhead, especially at a high elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 That temp drop rescued my bad wind forecast from day 1. Looks like tomorrow is a tricky forecast with falling afternoon temperatures and snow possible in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 That temp drop rescued my bad wind forecast from day 1. Looks like tomorrow is a tricky forecast with falling afternoon temperatures and snow possible in the evening. This times 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 To precip tomorrow or to not precip tomorrow. Looks like some precip is possible towards the end of the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It's already 46 as of noon so I'm screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Little windy today huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 lol, zero point gain or loss today. Thanks wind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 We had to of hit 49 in there somewhere right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Wow, today was awesome, I'll be in the top 10 if the high held at 48 and the wind at 20 kt. Now, the tough question, how much of that snow is going to fall before 06 Z Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I don't know about you guys, but I am beating myself up over the low for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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