Max Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I'm hoping 82F for the sake of my LSC peeps. Could grab 3 WC spots if it gets that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 A warmer max temp or higher wind would help me, but based on some hypotheticals I've locked up a wild card spot! The current bracket has me in Mallow's region, although it would be a couple rounds until a potential matchup if we both stick around...and I'm not sure if my seed will change at all based on the rest of today. Looks like another cat 3 forecaster from OU made it too, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 A warmer max temp or higher wind would help me, but based on some hypotheticals I've locked up a wild card spot! The current bracket has me in Mallow's region, although it would be a couple rounds until a potential matchup if we both stick around...and I'm not sure if my seed will change at all based on the rest of today. Looks like another cat 3 forecaster from OU made it too, nice! Kinda scared about going up against btangy in round 2 (assuming I make it to round 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Look like I'll fall short of WC spot. I had a really good forecasting week, but I never had a chance after that 6 points error on the low on Day 1 because I wasn't paying attention to the evening part. However, that was a heck of 2nd semester and I know I'll be up there among Cat 4 next year if I continues doing what I'm doing. I'm just happy that I was able to take a city trophy for my freshman year I'll not be forecasting anymore for rest of the year (too busy with school), but I'll be tracking the tournament since there will be between 2-4 UNCA forecasters in it (2 with byes and others depending on WC). Good luck to y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Kinda scared about going up against btangy in round 2 (assuming I make it to round 2). The bracket looks off right now, it has the scores after 2 days listed. Earlier it had the right scores listed and I was still in region 2. Assuming I'm in region 2, my first matchup would be against kmeier from Albany (a 3 seed). It's two days of forecasting and anything can happen. If I make it far enough to face you or btangy or whoever else in the third round, I'd be pretty happy regardless. Look like I'll fall short of WC spot. I had a really good forecasting week, but I never had a chance after that 6 points error on the low on Day 1 because I wasn't paying attention to the evening part. However, that was a heck of 2nd semester and I know I'll be up there among Cat 4 next year if I continues doing what I'm doing. I'm just happy that I was able to take a city trophy for my freshman year I'll not be forecasting anymore for rest of the year (too busy with school), but I'll be tracking the tournament since there will be between 2-4 UNCA forecasters in it (2 with byes and others depending on WC). Good luck to y'all! You had a good Spring it seemed like. On one hand I won't complain when I'm done forecasting, but on the other I don't quite want it to be over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 You had a good Spring it seemed like. On one hand I won't complain when I'm done forecasting, but on the other I don't quite want it to be over yet I didn't want WxChallenge to be over yet because I was enjoying it more and more, but it's good to have time back for something else now. I did indeed have a great spring after I figured out what the deal is with WxChallenge as well as getting my tools together considering I've never done any sort of forecasting for a specific city before I'm a quick learner which is bad news for others on WxChallenge We'll see, though... Fall semester score: 1.25 Spring semester score: -1.70 EDIT: Excuse my grammar, btw. I'm deaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Oh my. I missed getting into the tournament under Cat 3 by 0.1 points. Went too high on the winds for the final day Good luck to everyone in the tourny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Went with 55/22/11... my competition went 55/22/12. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Not that it really matter but I went with 54/22/11/0..... I see a couple of you guys are in my bracket, so good luck and hopefully one of us makes the final four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 I went 57/25/12/0 My competition went 55/27/12/0 I'd say there's a half decent chance we tie tomorrow, because I'm pretty sure the low will be 25 or colder, and I'm worried about the high not getting above 55. Will be interesting! The temp is already 33 with a dew of 25, so I'm pretty sure 27 will be too warm...at least I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Let's the madness begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Ouch. Low of 25 sucks. Need the temp to climb above 53 to salvage some points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Got lucky and nailed the low...the temps didn't drop with any conviction until after 10z. That's good because I'm not sure the high gets above 55...if the high gets above 55 I'll have a modest lead on my competition going into tomorrow, if not it'll be a tie at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Per the climo report, thus far today has done 54/25/12/0...some chance the wind ends up higher at 6z but I'm skeptical. Regardless, I'll be tied with my competition heading into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Welp, the 54 helps but I'll have some catching up to do. If things hold, my opponent would have only 1 error point today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I went 64/39/26/0 My competition went 63/34/24/0 The biggest spread is on the low. The lower guidance made no sense to me. There will be mid-high clouds all night with increasing southerly winds. Every model I looked at appeared to show too little cloud coverage tonight. We'll see how wrong I end up being Basically if the low works out for me I move on, if not, there isn't enough variation elsewhere to bail me out. If the low is 36-37 then the high/winds will decide. If the low is 35 or colder he moves on, if the low is 38 or warmer I move on. At least I'll know what's up by the time I wake up tomorrow, if not 6z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Regardless if 63/36/27/0 verifies, I won't make it out of the 1st round. Wish i went warmer with the low but oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 For today's forecast, my competition was only 1kt off my forecast. He's ahead of me by 0.5 points today. For tomorrow's forecast, my competition is exactly 1°F off my forecast (he's 36F, I'm 37F). So it turns out the only thing that matters for us is what the low is tomorrow morning. Today didn't even matter. I find it absolutely insane how close our forecasts have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 40 now although the winds are picking up and there are clouds streaming in. I may be roasted, we'll see. 36 or above and I'm still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I don't understand how it's 40F already. We couldn't buy a few degrees last night with crystal clear skies and winds that weren't any stronger. And now we're going down 10F in two hours? Ugh. It's looking like I'm toast. Below 37F and I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I don't understand how it's 40F already. We couldn't buy a few degrees last night with crystal clear skies and winds that weren't any stronger. And now we're going down 10F in two hours? Ugh. It's looking like I'm toast. Below 37F and I'm out. I'm waiting for them to jump 2 or 3 degrees in an hour like they've done on both of the good radiating nights a couple of times for no reason whatsoever. Joplin is only 2F colder than 2 hours ago, but they rose a few 2F between 1-2z.Either way, the models showed the sharpest drop between 0z and 3-4z, so hopefully they're done cratering. Edit: up to 41F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Low was 39 through 12z. It may have snuck down to 38 shortly after, but either way, I'm on to round 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 As long as nothing completely ridiculous happens like seeing a 36F interhourly or a drop to 36F before 06z tonight, I'm on to round two as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 As long as nothing completely ridiculous happens like seeing a 36F interhourly or a drop to 36F before 06z tonight, I'm on to round two as well. Didn't get any colder than 39 after 12z, so that's good. I really doubt they get colder than 40 this evening but you never know I guess. What'll be interesting is if we both make it through to round 3, one of us will get to knock the other out. That potential matchup is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Didn't get any colder than 39 after 12z, so that's good. I really doubt they get colder than 40 this evening but you never know I guess. What'll be interesting is if we both make it through to round 3, one of us will get to knock the other out. That potential matchup is still on the table. Haha, I have to get through btangy (maybe?) first. He's a tough forecaster to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Haha, I have to get through btangy (maybe?) first. He's a tough forecaster to beat. btangy went 64/36/25/0 today, his competition went 62/35/23/0. With the current numbers of 62/39/22/0, btangy is actually a point behind...however, I think there's a good chance btangy edges him once the final high/wind are put in. Hey, if btangy just edges a 15 seed, you never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 Taking a shot on the low... 71/44/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 Went 71/42/10/0 Competition went 68/43/8/0 This will be interesting because I can see an argument either way on the high and low. Winds I'd be surprised if they didn't at least hit 10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 Taking a shot on the low... 71/44/11/0 Ugh... The day that I need them to find degrees between hours (Tuesday morning) they get nothing. The day that I need them to not find any (this morning) they find two. Well depending on the high today, I've either dug myself into a 4-point or a 2-point hole. If it's the former, I think that's unrecoverable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 Up to 65 already, so hopefully bodes well for a high of 71+ which I think would help both of us. I'd have a 4-5 point lead depending on the winds if it gets 71 or warmer, although I'd either face you or btangy next round if I move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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