OHweather Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 60/39/20/0 Had to look to SD to find areas where the airmass would be similar to what MO will be dealing with tomorrow, and sites up there that avoided showers today got into the lower 60's. I think some models are over doing shower coverage tomorrow over MO and I don't see them hanging onto BKN skies most of the day. With a similar start tomorrow as today, similar or fewer clouds, slightly stronger winds and slightly cooler mid-level temps I think it all evens out to a few degrees cooler than today. They may get a bit warmer but didn't want to chance it in case I'm wrong. That 39 is 6z tomorrow night...some models were even a bit cooler than that but I'm not sure winds go calm quick enough. It may rain a few hundredths at SGF tomorrow but the shower coverage won't be the best so tried to play the probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 58/39/26/.02 Forecast soundings showed lower levels equivalent to dry-adiabatic lapse rates and models liked 25+ knot winds at 850hPa so I figured a few gusts would mix down fairly easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 SGF is still running much warmer than forecast at 54 degrees as of 5z. Look like I still got little hope for 44 by 6z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 I fortunately am not in the WC round (was close, could have gone either way), but I made a forecast anyhow... 57/36/27/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 22 knots gusting to 31 knots right now on the wind so that should verify at least 25 knots at the end of the day. They managed to not measure any rain last hour but there are a few microcells an hour or two out to the NW. They got to 57 before the rain cooled air hit, fell to 53 and are back to 56 now. They'll get some sun for at least the next hour so we'll see how much they can warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Per climo, the final numbers, for now (the low could well be colder this evening): 59/43*/25/0 If the low gets to 39 by 6z, I'd be right around 9th among Cat 3 forecasters vying for one of the 8 wild card spots...so shouldn't be a disaster either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Having no precip from those cells doesn't help to erase my mistake on low. Not looking at tonight's low will get me trailing Top 8 by 7 points or so if the low is at 38 by 6z and that's might be season-ending right there unless there's a day with big error points down the road. At least I got a city trophy to remember my freshman year on WxChallenge, but that city did comes down to the last hour so I might not be done. A low of 40-42 will keep me in the game, but temps are dropping already :\ We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Having no precip from those cells doesn't help to erase my mistake on low. Not looking at tonight's low will get me trailing Top 8 by 7 points or so if the low is at 38 by 6z and that's might be season-ending right there unless there's a day with big error points down the road. At least I got a city trophy to remember my freshman year on WxChallenge, but that city did comes down to the last hour so I might not be done. A low of 40-42 will keep me in the game, but temps are dropping already :\ We'll see. It's not impossible to make up 7 points in 3 days, maybe some rain/storms/warmth Friday and Saturday to help the spread a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 70/36/19/0. Obviously I'm going between NWS and USL for winds. Going little warmer on high and low because of trend last few days and I'm gambling to make up some points. It's not impossible to make up 7 points in 3 days, maybe some rain/storms/warmth Friday and Saturday to help the spread a bit. Yup. I'll be right back in it if I do well on winds for tomorrow too. Thanks for encouragement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 70/33/19/0 The models seemed too cool tomorrow. If they effectively mix to 850mb which most models show (barely) they should be able to touch 70. Dew point is 34, winds are down to 9 knots at 0z and there won't be any clouds tonight...I don't see why they won't at least cool to the dew point and possibly drag it down a bit, so I'm surprised more people didn't go cooler than the mid 30's. There will be a couple of opportunities for winds to hit 20 or so knots tomorrow...one during the late afternoon when winds at the top of the BL get to near 20 knots...and again closer to 6z when winds will be quite strong right above the ground...so we'll see how that works. Edit: they tagged 60 today per the 0z obs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Edit: they tagged 60 today per the 0z obs!! Like I said... trending warm lately in KSGF. Models had it at 40-42 for the low this morning but SGF ended up at 44 which is what I got as today's low (because I wasn't paying attention). Like I said, I'm gambling on trend to hold for another day, although USL got 33 after getting 44 this morning. EDIT: SGF also somehow touched 51 between 0z and 6z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Like I said... trending warm lately in KSGF. Models had it at 40-42 for the low this morning but SGF ended up at 44 which is what I got as today's low (because I wasn't paying attention). Like I said, I'm gambling on trend to hold for another day, although USL got 33 after getting 44 this morning. EDIT: SGF also somehow touched 51 between 0z and 6z! They ended up getting to 43 this morning. The colder models didn't make sense this morning given the clouds and winds sticking around last night...tonight I think they do, but we'll see. Not too shocking they had some decent temp swings this afternoon with the cold/dry air in the mid levels and the shallow convection floating around...I've seen mostly sunny and upper 40's turn into upper 30's with snow pellets in similar (but obviously colder) setups in Ohio before...always interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 They ended up getting to 43 this morning. The colder models didn't make sense this morning given the clouds and winds sticking around last night...tonight I think they do, but we'll see. Not too shocking they had some decent temp swings this afternoon with the cold/dry air in the mid levels and the shallow convection floating around...I've seen mostly sunny and upper 40's turn into upper 30's with snow pellets in similar (but obviously colder) setups in Ohio before...always interesting. Forgot the climo came out later in the day showing 43. If I wasn't so behind, I would have gone with 33-34 but I decided to test the trend as a gamble to get points back. NWS also got 52 in their forecast for 0z but we ended up at 54 so that's another reason why I got 36. We'll see Growing up in Missouri, I knew this city was going to be a wild one even though it look like a city with stable weather on map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 70/34/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 69/31/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Nailed the day 1 temps...although the wind managed to get up to 32 knots. The wind won't kill me though because more people had lower than my 20 knots than above and because of the temps working out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Seem like WxChallenge is still working on Day 1 stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Low was 33F this morning...up to 64 now, I think near or a bit above 70 looks good. I'm sure they'll get the Day 1 results straightened out soon but I am impatient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Got Day 1 fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 71/33/15+ are the numbers thus far for day 2...the winds should be higher. Regardless of winds (from what I can tell), I should be 2nd out of the top 8 cat 3 forecasters vying for a wild card spot, which is where I want to be at this point, although it is a pretty tight contest. Unfortunately, for Friday it looks like a stalled frontal boundary will be lying across MO, with pretty decent moisture/instability south of it and the right-rear quadrant of an upper level jet streak passing over MO Friday morning...so there is a chance for convection, and high temperatures at this point could go either way. Luckily we have a little more time to figure things out for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Little recovery today toward Top 8, but I still need two more solid forecasts and pray for big error points on these two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Went 76/52/14/0 Looks like some sinking motion behind a subtle upper wave for a good chunk of the day tomorrow, so I expect them to see SCT to at times BKN skies for most of the day Friday. I was getting highs of 75-77 when mixing to 850mb on the GFS and NAM (NAM was warmer), and got 78 when I tried HYSPLIT. I was a little scared of possible clouds/convection, so didn't quite go that warm. A high of 75-77 would serve me well regardless. Wasn't trying to reinvent the wheel with the low...just blended guidance. The best chance for convection looks to be south and east of SGF tonight, if any occurs. For tomorrow, am hoping subtle sinking motion keeps convection at bay as the front moves back north. Models hinted at decent easterly winds tomorrow morning so we'll see if that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Went with 76/52 as well with 16 kts of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 55 right now, so I think there's a decent chance they get below 52 tonight. No cat 3 forecasters within striking distance went colder than 51, and most went 52 or warmer. The 4z RAP now gets them easily into the 80's tomorrow. I'm going to say no way on that although if they end up seeing a lot of sun I guess I could see something like 79. Regardless, my 76 is near the warm end of things so I'm not too concerned...only 10 cat 3's went 77+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Went 75/50/15/0 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Another day of recovery toward Top 8, but I still might fall short even with one more good forecast. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Going Hail Mary on this one for the high and winds. It's going to be hard to get to 82 with high winds, but you never know... 82/56/32/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 80/58/27/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Seems like the scores are going to be screwed up again until they fix them...at 0z the scores for day 3 decided to start showing as day 4. Anyways, from what I can tell I'm first among cat 3 forecasters for the week after day 3, with 4 points to give between me and the 8th wild card spot, so a bit of room. With that said went 82/56/26/0 Different methods gave me drastically different high temps...figured mixing to just below 850mb and got highs in the upper 70's on the 12z GFS and NAM. However, tried HYSPLIT and got mid 80's, when mixing parcels that come from NE Texas and end up at 1000m at SGF. The airmass is warmer than Thursday (when they hit 81) although they may not mix quite as well. MET/MAV/LAMP showed a lot of clouds, overcast or broken all day...that won't happen. Any morning low clouds will mix out quickly and there may be a few hours of high clouds during the afternoon. So basically blended the two methods above and got 82. Winds will probably be 25+ if I'm right and they can mix effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 80/57/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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