WxBlue Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Today was exactly what I need so far. Just need the high to go above 32 with the winds picking up to 12 or more knots and I should take #1 spot among Category 4 guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Lol such a terrible forecast today....going to be a battle for the top of category 3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Well at least I nailed the precip. The rest of my forecast is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Hopefully this forecast get me one of two top spots for Cat 4. I got 1.3 point margin if something is off. 37/22/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 38/24/16/0.00 Leaned toward the higher max numbers given the overall model performance over the past few weeks. Hopefully skies clear out fast enough. USL has had a seemingly high wind bias for this location too, so I took a blend between the lower MOS and higher USL. Climo for today:35/21/10/0.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 35/20/14/0 Skewed my numbers a bit to try and get the 2nd spot in cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Looking over the forecasts from Top 8 Cat 4 guys, it's going to be really hard to pass me for 1st or 2nd spot since they all forecasted pretty close to me. For the city I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 39/22/19/0 Can't believe it's the last day already...it's only the first week of the spring quarter for us! Missed the tournament because I forgot to forecast one day in Atlanta and Fairbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Kinda sucks that Cat 0's cannot get into the tournament 37/23/18/0.00 for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 37/21/18 The air mass will be a bit cooler than today with a north wind but with full sun and a slightly warmer start I think they'll at least be a couple degrees warmer than today. I was surprised models didn't cool quicker tomorrow evening with winds staying very light until just after 6z and clear skies so I went for a 6z low tomorrow evening of 21. Winds at the top of the boundary layer per the 12z NAM and Euro looked to be 20-25 knots later tonight so I'm hoping they can get to 18 at some point. I'll be a wild card in the tourney so I will be forecasting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Winds got up to 13 knots sustained on a SPECI between 1-2z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 36/22/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 35/24/22. Just a disastrous final 3 cities for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I'll be forecasting next week as well with a WC. Right now, I'm praying that the low will get below 24 tomorrow's evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 *sigh* I hope the temps drop hard this evening and for climo to not update that 17 kts or I'm 3rd for the city without trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I hate moisture trapped beneath an inversion. So, I doubt they do any better than BKN today, will probably top out at 33, and probably won't fall below their morning low of 26 this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I hate moisture trapped beneath an inversion. So, I doubt they do any better than BKN today, will probably top out at 33, and probably won't fall below their morning low of 26 this evening. Pretty much one knot of wind decide whether I'll finish 2nd or 3rd now... 18 knots will knock me down to 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Pretty much one knot of wind decide whether I'll finish 2nd or 3rd now... 18 knots will knock me down to 3rd.Well do you want the good news or bad news? Temp is 36 right now on a SPECI but peak winds were 19 knots.Edit: thought I saw 2C on the METAR but the high will be 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 The high of 35 gives me hope still....Need temps to tank this evening for 21 or lower. The calm winds on the 00z ob is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Well do you want the good news or bad news? Temp is 36 right now on a SPECI but peak winds were 19 knots. Edit: thought I saw 2C on the METAR but the high will be 35. Yeah, a friend texted me that winds were 19 knots although WxChallenge haven't update that yet. I'll be fine if temps get below 23 somehow before 6z. Like Brewers said, calm wind at 0z is a good start. EDIT: KGFK going from 28 to 23 at 5z got me finishing in 1st place among Category 4 for the city. Nice to win a trophy my freshman year and hopefully some of you also did well on this big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Yeah, a friend texted me that winds were 19 knots although WxChallenge haven't update that yet. I'll be fine if temps get below 23 somehow before 6z. Like Brewers said, calm wind at 0z is a good start. EDIT: KGFK going from 28 to 23 at 5z got me finishing in 1st place among Category 4 for the city. Nice to win a trophy my freshman year and hopefully some of you also did well on this big drop. Congrats! 35/22/19/0 final numbers for day 8 it appears. For GFK, a story of two weeks for me. Had a great first week, and a not so good second week. It was days 5 and 6 that killed me, I made some ground back up days 7 and 8. Will finish the city at 45th with a standardized score of -2.01, but will have the best score for the city at Ohio U by 17.9 points. We didn't seem to like GFK at OU, it even got under my skin this week a bit. There is still the chance for me to make the tourny depending on how well I do next week, but I probably won't win any trophies this year. I had a few pretty good cities, three cities that I hated (CON, Norman and RDD), and a few other cities where I did "okay" but couldn't get over the hump so to speak (HOU, AFA). Next year I think I'll do decently...looking back, I really don't feel like I had half a clue what I was doing until we hit GRR...after that I was half decent. Anyways, best of luck to anyone who will be forecasting from here on out in Springfield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Welp, 2nd straight city where 1 degree meant the difference between 2nd and 3rd. Even though I couldn't get an individual city trophy, I will get one for finishing 3rd overall in Cat 3 for the year. Good luck to everyone in the tourney, after dealing with GFK I look forward to my week off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Turn out the drop to 22 got another UNCA forecaster into 2nd for a Cat 4 trophy. As for myself, this year have been tales of two halves. First half, I really struggled and didn't break the consensus in any of the first 5 cities. I was trying to figure out how I can forecast better and which tools I use. Then my success for Atlanta to start 2nd semester changed everything. I went on a hot streak from there, usually staying above consensus most of the times. I went from 700th place overall to 208th for the year and I ended up finishing the regular season at score of -0.22 which is good enough to land me #4 forecaster out of 25 at UNCA. Hopefully I can get my hot streak going into wild card week and get into the main tournament, but I'm happy with the year already I think I can do real damage next year when I'm the sophomore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Finished the last day with only 1.5 points of error, which was nice. If only day 7 hadn't been such a disaster for me, things could have ended a whole lot better. But in the end, I finished 30th overall among people who have participated the whole year. Not as well as I did last year, but I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Looks like I finished 78th for the city with a -1.20 score. With that, I finished 52nd among all forecasters who participated throughout the whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Finished the year with -0.77 Std. Dev, or 147th Overall. Had seven absences and at least one that cost me a city. Likely would of been in top 100 if I hadn't climoed one day in BWI. Was 3rd overall at Millersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Went with 59/44/20/0.05. Interesting many went low tonight, but things have been warmer than models last few days so I went above instead of below. So far, the low is warmer than forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Went with 59/44/20/0.05. Interesting many went low tonight, but things have been warmer than models last few days so I went above instead of below. So far, the low is warmer than forecast...6z low potential tmrw night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Didn't need to forecast but here's mine regardless..... 60/38/21/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 6z low potential tmrw night Not the first time I missed on that either... oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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