Brewers Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Well anyone that went low for the high tomorrow, better hope the 00z MET or MAV guidance is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Well anyone that went low for the high tomorrow, better hope the 00z MET or MAV guidance is wrong. HopWRF seems to like a low(er) high tomorrow as well. I'm holding out hope. http://hopwrf.hopkinsschools.org/images_eplume4/3km/00Z/hopwrfe-wxplume4_GFK.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Looks like GFK will get their share of sun today. They got a few degrees cooler than I thought this morning so I'm not sure if they can rise all the way to 27, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Hoping the deep, fresh snowpack will keep the inversion strong today, even with full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Honestly, I'm just praying it'll stay below 22. This morning gave me some hope, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Honestly, I'm just praying it'll stay below 22. This morning gave me some hope, however. I'm also hoping it stays below 22F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Was that 0.01 a legit flake in the bucket? The ob said blowing snow. I can't seem to think that was a legit precipitation amount that hour. Edit: Was away from my computer last night so I'll just post my numbers here: 25/7/28/0. Seems like wind will verify 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Was that 0.01 a legit flake in the bucket? The ob said blowing snow. I can't seem to think that was a legit precipitation amount that hour. Edit: Was away from my computer last night so I'll just post my numbers here: 25/7/28/0. Seems like wind will verify 30-32. According to radar at the time any appreciable snow ended right around 6z...I highly doubt it was still snowing enough to tip the bucket at 9z... We'll see if that goes away I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Temperatures finally starting to rebound nicely under clear skies. I feel confident in mid 20s and especially in my high of 25F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 They've been going up 3F an hour the last two hours now and are up to 19F. Still not sure on 27 lol but I can definitely see 25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Yeah, definitely not keeping my 21F. Probably 23-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Only 20 at the 20Z ob. No higher than 22 please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Yeah, the warm party may be over. I still think 23 is reasonable. Assuming the low doesn't tank by 6z I should stay in the top 30 but I will loose a few more spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Meh RDR climbed to 22, so yeah 23-25 look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 I'll take 23-24. I REALLY need the low to tank hard tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Climo report has 23/8/29/0 as the numbers right now. Outside chance the high leaks up to 24, and the 6z low could be colder. For day 6's low MAV: -1 MET: 11 GFS LAMP: 3 or 4 USL: -7 NWS: -5 12z Euro: 0 21z RAP: -15 20z HRRR: -18 18z 4km NAM: -6 18z 12km NAM: -6 or -7 18z GFS: -12 or -13 Good luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 After looking at models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 29/2/10/0.00 A touch milder tomorrow, but not as high as MOS. The low is very tricky, but I think with the snow-cover and high pressure overhead they'll drop nicely. (Could very well be lower than +2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Went with 27/-1/10/0.00. Easily the lowest confidence I ever have with a WxChallenge forecast, but I don't think it'll drop that hard where NWS/USL/GFS got. I also don't think it'll get to 30 because of snowpack and very low start to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 That forecast sucked! 27/-1/10/0 Not really confident on temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 27/-4/10.....Honestly can't see how they don't fall below zero and wouldn't be surprised if I bust high. Used 3/27/13 as an analog for tonight, similar low level temps and calm winds although they didn't have a fresh snow pack then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 30/1/10/0 For the first time in God knows how long, I undercut MOS for the high. Assuming they mix about as well tomorrow as they did today (to about 925mb where the NAM has temps of -7C around 21z tomorrow), I can see temperatures at 29. There will be an easterly flow during the afternoon, and locations over MN where there is much less of a snow pack will easily get into the mid 30's...it'll be interesting to see what the high does. I can see them getting below 0 tonight but something didn't smell right...I don't like that their dew point is still 12 right now. Radiational conditions will be nearly optimal though, so it'll be interesting to see how much that can get dragged down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 30/3/9/0 Below zero is rare. Think models are overdoing the inversion... again. Undercut MOS for poor mixing conditions and snowpack with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 29/-3/9/0. Record low for April 2nd at KGFK is -2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 31/-3/10/0 Fresh snowpack and directly under the high--it will drop. Hopefully it will get to 4 before 06Z. I could see -5 or below but I was afraid to go there because it's April!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 10. Getting the impression I may have gone a tad too warm on the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Things are looking good, hoping for 4 degrees or lower by 6z. Only concern would be fog given the low dew point depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I will end up dying of laughter if we get below 2 by 6z. I forecasted 1 for the low today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 26/-5/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 Already 7 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.