battlebrick Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Assuming the precip holds, that makes a 0.03" forecast look pretty good. I was probably too low on the winds though. welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 88/74/11???????/0.39 is what climo has. Weird that it would come in lower than a top of the hour observation which had 12 knots lol I'm wondering if it's a rounding thing. 13.3 or 13.4 mph would be 11.5-11.6 kts, which would round to 12kts in the METAR. But then it would go into the climate report as 13mph => 11kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 88/72/11/0 D*mn if I do put precip, d*mn if I don't. A bit balsy on the low, but 72-73 should be right, 72 was just for the greater reward if I get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 32/36 of my penalty points are precip.. ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89/75/11/0.10 tomorrow. Time for me to go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 88/74/12/0 houston sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89/73/12/0.00 when the hell did it hit 88 today? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89/73/12/0.00 when the hell did it hit 88 today? haha Right before the outflow hit at ~1:45ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Right before the outflow hit at ~1:45ish Meh. Thankfully it didn't kill me, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89/75/13/0.00" for Friday. I actually gained ground today and top 1000 is in site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89/75/11/0.10 tomorrow. Time for me to go big or go home. Gah these lows are killing me. I don't understand why their dewpoints are dropping so much at night. They've had plenty of rain and dewpoints off the coast are consistently 74-75. They're not advecting in lower dewpoints. And this didn't happen last week at all. What's going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Barely inside the national consensus........next. Why is the windspeed for day 3 15 kts? Shouldn't it be 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Barely inside the national consensus........next. Why is the windspeed for day 3 15 kts? Shouldn't it be 11? I see 11 kts. Which is annoying, beacuse it was 12 kts before the climo report came out. I've never seen the wind go down between the ASOS data and the climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 88/72/11/0 D*mn if I do put precip, d*mn if I don't. A bit balsy on the low, but 72-73 should be right, 72 was just for the greater reward if I get it right. Jumped 100 places this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Never seen this before. But currently I have a 0 for places gained or lost today. Sitting exactly where I started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Shouldn't it be 12 knots for wind day 3? I find it hard to believe climo really should be 11 knots when a regular 53 past the hour obs reported higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Too bad we didn't have Cheyenne this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 80/59/10/0.00 for tomorrow. The NWS, GFS MOS and NAM MET guidance are all in the low to mid 80s. None of the raw guidance I looked at hits 80 except for the 4km NAM which hits 80 in KHOU Monday. With 850mb temps around +12C and neutral or weak cold air advection could be close. I was uncertain going below 60 for lows given that KHOU appears to be close enough to downtown Houston and the water to hold up lows. Again though most guidance was somewhere in the 50's and have never paid close attention to radiational cooling in Houston before and didn't want to deviate too far from guidance. Added a bit on to the wind over most guidance which has generally worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 80/59/10/0.00 for tomorrow. The NWS, GFS MOS and NAM MET guidance are all in the low to mid 80s. None of the raw guidance I looked at hits 80 except for the 4km NAM which hits 80 in KHOU Monday. With 850mb temps around +12C and neutral or weak cold air advection could be close. I was uncertain going below 60 for lows given that KHOU appears to be close enough to downtown Houston and the water to hold up lows. Again though most guidance was somewhere in the 50's and have never paid close attention to radiational cooling in Houston before and didn't want to deviate too far from guidance. Added a bit on to the wind over most guidance which has generally worked. we were supposed to submit for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 we were supposed to submit for tomorrow?After further review (should have paid attention before I submitted) no doesn't look like it. Well that was a fun exercise regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 we were supposed to submit for tomorrow? Forecast days are always Tuesday-Friday, fyi. They usually skip the whole week of Thanksgiving too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 To decouple tonight or to not decouple? That is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 To decouple tonight or to not decouple? That is the question. Other parameters look very similar to last night...PWATs, wind speed, and temperatures aloft are comparable. Hate to say it, but the USL has been dead on lately even today with a change in airmass...tough to deviate too far from it at least for the high and probably the low. But, if they do decouple, it could be mid 50s...if not then low 60s. Nothing is ever easy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 83/61/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 81/57/9/0 - Should de-couple based on what happened last night and a slower boundary layer tonight. High is likely going to be 80-82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 81/57/7/0. This one counts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 84/57/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 83/57/6/0.00 I definitely shot low on the winds. I was thinking they would be lower than last week with no convection, but I think I over-corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 83/58/6/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 High is likely going to be 80-82. Why's that? It was 81F today. I don't even think 80 is possible tomorrow. Looks a degree or two warmer aloft, plus less wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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