wi_fl_wx Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 They just hit 28...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Didn't think there would be such effective mixing today. With 850 temps near -12 we can probably make it to 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Didn't think there would be such effective mixing today. With 850 temps near -12 we can probably make it to 32-33. Yeah, kind of like day 1 where I figured the proper temperature with mixing, but was apprehensive and went too cold. Will still gain ground on consensus, but I do agree there's a good chance it gets above 30F. Winds are sustained at 22 knots gusting to 26 knots and are still coming up, so those of us who went with a better than 25 knot wind are also looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Should've gone with my gut. Models said low clouds all day, but my gut told me they'd only occur as surface-forced clouds if the temperatures got warm enough, so I should go with a fully-mixed type day. I didn't listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Yeah, kind of like day 1 where I figured the proper temperature with mixing, but was apprehensive and went too cold. Will still gain ground on consensus, but I do agree there's a good chance it gets above 30F. Winds are sustained at 22 knots gusting to 26 knots and are still coming up, so those of us who went with a better than 25 knot wind are also looking good. It's unfortunate since I would of gone even warmer if I had more confidence. Anyways it's something to keep in mind for tomorrow, although there might be more clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It's unfortunate since I would of gone even warmer if I had more confidence. Anyways it's something to keep in mind for tomorrow, although there might be more clouds. Tomorrow looks like it could be a lot cloudier during the morning and afternoon. Otherwise, with similar 850mb temps, BL depth and less wind than today it would probably be at least near freezing tomorrow. But with the colder start and more clouds I honestly doubt they see 30 tomorrow, but I'll have to think about it. Edit: The NAM would be BKN or OVC almost all of tomorrow, while the Euro and GFS wouldn't be any worse than SCT most of the day. The intrigue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Up to 30°F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Since I'm still sort of rookie to this contest, I got a question. I'm seeing 25 mph N wind with gust of 31 mph on KGFK observation, but why is WxChallenge still at 22 knots instead of something like 27 or 28 knots? Just trying to be sure I understand what's going on. I would love 25 knots or higher to finish the day so I can get into Top 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Since I'm still sort of rookie to this contest, I got a question. I'm seeing 25 mph N wind with gust of 31 mph on KGFK observation, but why is WxChallenge still at 22 knots instead of something like 27 or 28 knots? Just trying to be sure I understand what's going on. I would love 25 knots or higher to finish the day so I can get into Top 40 The hourly wind observations are auto-ingested. They won't have the higher maximum winds until climo report(s) are issued. It sometimes takes several hours after the reports too to see those numbers ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The hourly wind observations are auto-ingested. They won't have the higher maximum winds until climo report(s) are issued. It sometimes takes several hours after the reports too to see those numbers ingested. I understand now. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 USL page not updating should make for some interesting spreads on forecasts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 USL page not updating should make for some interesting spreads on forecasts tomorrow. Noticed that while doing my forecast. USL haven't been doing well on winds, but high temperature from that model would have been helpful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 I would love 25 knots or higher to finish the day so I can get into Top 40 Climo puts winds at 24kt today with a high of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 They've been windier in the two hourly obs since climo than any observation before so I'm thinking they can still squeeze out 25-27 knots. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 28/6/14/0 No idea on low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 29/9/15/0 The low is interesting, lots of competing factors on top of model spread. I went higher than guidance because of the winds. The clouds seemed like a hit or miss butt the winds seemed like a lock. Last time GFK went to 4 kts overnight and kept the low up, so that's what I'm going with this time. So, low end of the higher range. WOW, that distribution on the low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 32/8/12/0. If the skies are like day 1, I believe they can get there. HYSPLIT calculation suggested it. I went with it because I'm not a believer in how cloudy the models are making it out to be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 28/7/12/0.....really wanted to go warmer with the low but with winds weakening I didn't want to chance it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 26/6/15. Wanted to go higher with the high but got scared by modeled cloud cover. I'm sure that will bite me in the you know what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 28/6/10/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 28/8/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 28/7/9/0.00. No gambling on anything but the high and even the high isn't that much of a gamble. I'm little surprised at consensus being 12 knots so hopefully that doesn't hurt me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Went 28/6/13/0 Had to forecast a few hours early due to work. Wasn't really sure on the low...on one hand the winds look to stay up most of the night and there may be clouds, however most models really try to crater temps late as winds try to go light and skies perhaps clear for a few hours. At the end of the day just went in the middle of what I thought was possible (I figured 2-10 was a good range). For the high, I tried HYSPLIT again and calculated 31 or 32 based on mixing to 1000m and using a 12 hour backwards trajectory...I think I'm doing the calculations right...I haven't figured out how to factor in terrain which is why I did a 12 hour trajectory (not much terrain for the air to move over). On day 1 they had a 23 degree diurnal spread...and the GFS MOS, while ridiculously cold, showed a 23 degree spread as well with SCT to at times BKN clouds all day. I think there will be a few more clouds than day 1, so went with a 22 degree spread. This is still warmer than every piece of guidance but I think that's where I want to be. It may get warmer but I wasn't feeling adventurous due to more clouds than today and day 1 (I think they'll bounce between SCT and BKN all day), and slightly colder mid level temps than today, to go along with a much colder start. I had day 1 in mind and the airmass is a bit warmer than day 1 so even if there are a few more clouds I think a few degrees warmer than 25 is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 25/7/16/0 Had a good day so far and just need the 6z low to cooperate for me of 13. It's tanking right now, so it should be close, but i think a few degrees off would still suit me well. For tomorrow, I made a forecast literally at 8pm since I've been swamped with work and almost forgot. I wish I had more time to look, so my high could hurt me. I don't buy guidance with it's low around 5 as it's been running a few degrees warmer throughout the last 5 obs. My winds are hopefully good with it still being fairly breezy. I need it to hold up for a few more hours which I think they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I need winds to die down FAST, but it appear that it'll be way above consensus at this rate... ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Well, if I do bad tomorrow I will just blame it on not getting out of work until 7:30 and getting home at 7:45. Meanwhile, it seems like the low might end up being in the 15-16 range for today, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Only 18 degrees with 2 hours to go. Wow. It'll be great for my score the higher low is, but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 16F it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'll end up 19th or better after day 3 pending the winds...I'm hoping they squeezed out 25 or 26 knots after the afternoon climo report. I have my doubts they'll get down to 6 tonight but I'll find out when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looks like the core of the coldest air will be over Minnesota, I'm not expecting it to fall much below 10. Shouldn't you eastern time zone people be in bed by now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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