MillvilleWx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Going 27/13/25 for tomorrow. I'm hoping the winds ramp up tomorrow early on in case we miss out on the winds picking up right before 6z. Could be even breezier really tomorrow afternoon than the 25 I have. I might make a change on the 0th hour before the forecast is due. Do I feel it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 This high (and wind, too) is gonna hurt me pretty badly after a good low. Oh well, just gotta do better tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Going */*/* for tomorrow. I'm hoping the winds ramp up tomorrow early on in case we miss out on the winds picking up right before 6z. Could be even breezier really tomorrow afternoon than the 25 I have. I might make a change on the 0th hour before the forecast is due. Do I feel it? Generally, it's probably better not to share your forecast 'til after the submission time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Generally, it's probably better not to share your forecast 'til after the submission time. Haha. I know, but after a horrendous first day, I'm just hoping to climb back above 150. Besides, if I'm right and you follow, we can all rise to the top together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 But the way my forecasts have been going since Baltimore, you might want to put the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Haha. I know, but after a horrendous first day, I'm just hoping to climb back above 150. Besides, if I'm right and you follow, we can all rise to the top together I'd rather be right because I was right than because I followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Just bumped my high down after seeing they fell to 31 already: 27/11/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 27/12/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Just bumped my high down after seeing they fell to 31 already: 27/12/26/0 I noticed that too and nudged my high down a degree for the same reason. 27/12/25/0.00 Not so sure temperatures fall fast enough tomorrow night to get into the single digits by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 30/13/30/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 30/15/27/0/.....I think we approach 30 tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 28/13/28/0 Had 29 until that recent 0z ob. Clear skies battle the remaining wind for tomorrow 6z low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Went 30/14/26/0 Was debating the high...I think it will be an afternoon high. Air over Canada doesn't look terribly cold and 850mb temps only fall about 3C during the day, so as they clear during the morning and into the afternoon they should be able to warm some (I think they get to near 20 by morning). If they effectively mix to around 900mb they can get to near freezing. I tried HYSPLIT, had no idea if I was doing it right, but also got temps in the lower 30's. Was skeptical it would warm that much so just went 30. Winds should stay up until around 6z so didn't expect a big drop during the evening, but there's some bust potential there I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 Let's see if that band of light snow on radar results in any measurable precip over the next few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Went 30/14/26/0 Was debating the high...I think it will be an afternoon high. Air over Canada doesn't look terribly cold and 850mb temps only fall about 3C during the day, so as they clear during the morning and into the afternoon they should be able to warm some (I think they get to near 20 by morning). If they effectively mix to around 900mb they can get to near freezing. I tried HYSPLIT, had no idea if I was doing it right, but also got temps in the lower 30's. Was skeptical it would warm that much so just went 30. Winds should stay up until around 6z so didn't expect a big drop during the evening, but there's some bust potential there I think. Apparently clouds do make a difference in whether the calculation works. For example, day 1, I calculated 24.6F and it verified 25F. For today, 37.7 at 19z was only 34 and about 42 from the 21z to 23z period where the max only got up to 37. So clouds do make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Funny enough I just did the calculation for 21z tomorrow and I'm getting 30-32. I feel like I should have kept my 31F now lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 30/13/25/0.00. Had to forecast earlier again before 23z since AccuWeather folks were in town to talk to us (awesome people for a chat, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Let's see if that band of light snow on radar results in any measurable precip over the next few hours... KDVL is down to 1 mile visibility and K5H4 is down to 3/4 of a mile...so if that can actually make it into GFK I'd say it's possible. Apparently clouds do make a difference in whether the calculation works. For example, day 1, I calculated 24.6F and it verified 25F. For today, 37.7 at 19z was only 34 and about 42 from the 21z to 23z period where the max only got up to 37. So clouds do make a difference. Yeah, that makes sense. It looks like tomorrow ceilings will be SCT at worst by late morning into the early afternoon, kind of like day 1, so hopefully there aren't too many clouds. I initially had 32 but chickened out to 30. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Temperature rose back up to 32 at 2z. Guess we still got chance at 29 or 30 at 6z so us going high don't have to worry about it for rest of the forecast day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 I wouldnt be surprised to see 32 @ 6z. Too bad that 0z ob scared me b/c I originally had 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 30/12/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Down to 30/21 now. It looks like they'll get some precip soon which could pull the temps down a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Down to 30. Hopefully it'll stay above 28 before 6z, but precip is coming in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 That band of snow is quickly falling apart so I doubt they get anything measurable and with winds out of the NE now, the next obs will probably be below 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 29/13/27/.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 29/13/27/.01 First post! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 First post! Welcome! Thank you kindly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Precip will be a complete dud it looks like. If I would've put 0" in would've had the least daily points today in the country. Winds up to 14 knots...not sure if they can squeeze in 20 knots during the next hour, but it's possible I guess as models showed the winds picking up right around 6z. I'll be 40th at worst after day 2, 27th at best if the winds somehow work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Temp dropped to 27 at 06Z, now just need that cold advection to be strong in the afternoon and keep it in the mid-20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 I originally had 28/13/28/0, but I changed to 27/13/28/0 when the temperature dropped at 0z. I was (and still am) definitely concerned about an afternoon high, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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