Max Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 41/8/22/0. Seems like northerly winds funnel at this place but I had no clue what to put so I went in the middle of what I think the lowest and highest possible would be. For the high I calculated 37.7F at 19z and then from 21z to 23z the air was traveling from the southeastern tip of Nebraska with little to no change in parcel height change and the highs today in that general region reached 40-44 today. I feel fairly confident we see 40F tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 41/15/17/ Trace (0) NAM overdoing the rad cooling tonight.. Clouds moving in late. Went a high high, could be anywhere from 37-42. Precip possible but it's so light I think it would be Trace for 2 or three hours. Good luck with that 15 you'll need it. I don't see anyway its higher than 10F for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 38/11/19/.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Went 38/13/20/0.03" Was debating the high. The GFS was much cooler in the boundary layer than the NAM and Euro, but it was pretty wrong today with boundary layer temperatures. All three models suggest that it's possible to mix to near 900mb tomorrow, and the Euro and NAM both had around -4 to -5C at that level, which yields a surface temp of near 40 if they can effectively mix. However, due to a good breeze and questions about how much sun they'll get (I think they'll have a window to get some late morning/early afternoon) I didn't go quite that warm. The raw Euro appeared to be near 37-38F so there is some model support. I just don't see a sharp drop tonight with winds likely picking up after 6z and with clouds around before then...I think they may struggle to get even below 15, but I didn't want to get burned really badly if I'm wrong so I went with 13. The GFS shows 20-22 knot winds at the top of the boundary layer tomorrow evening in CAA, so I really hope they can actually get some wind tomorrow. I actually think they have a good shot at getting measurable precip tomorrow evening with a pretty saturated atmosphere and a bit of upper level lift during the evening. Some models spit out about nothing, while a couple models were close to around 0.10" of QPF...given there's a good chance any precip is a wind blown light snow I'm not sure how much the gauge would actually catch so only went 0.03", so it can't hurt me more than about a point either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Good luck with that 15 you'll need it. I don't see anyway its higher than 10F for a low. You're wrong. 44/14/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You're wrong. 44/14/24/0 Just like that 6F hehe. I'll assume 4F bias on the Mallow model so 10F it shall be. Edit: And 44F, pretty crazy since HYSPLIT had 24.6F for today, so IT WAS RIGHT! And for tomorrow I calculated 37.7F at 19z and from 21z to 23z air was from southeast Nebraska where Lincoln, NE got to 43F with the area generally being anywhere from 40F to 44F, but I'll trust the ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Just like that 6F hehe. I'll assume 4F bias on the Mallow model so 10F it shall be. Edit: And 44F, pretty crazy since HYSPLIT had 24.6F for today, so IT WAS RIGHT! And for tomorrow I calculated 37.7F at 19z and from 21z to 23z air was from southeast Nebraska where Lincoln, NE got to 43F with the area generally being anywhere from 40F to 44F, but I'll trust the ASOS. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Regardless, this finally seems like a city where the consensus might be quite bad. Whoever does well could really pad their score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 37/10/22/0.03. I feel like gambling here since I went with higher temperature than many at UNCA including top 3 forecasters. Also not sure on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You're wrong. 44/14/24/0 Man, I really don't see the winds getting that high. Are you expecting that to happen just before 06z tomorrow night? 39/10/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Man, I really don't see the winds getting that high. Are you expecting that to happen just before 06z tomorrow night? 39/10/17/0 Least confidence on the wind, actually. But I think they have a couple opportunities... near sunrise, during the afternoon, or near the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Observations look pretty good for above national consensus of 8 degrees if the trend of last few nights hold. Maybe above 10 degrees, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Observations look pretty good for above national consensus of 8 degrees if the trend of last few nights hold. Maybe above 10 degrees, even. Assuming models are right and the southerlies really kick in between 06z and 09z and the clouds really thicken up, it's not going to cool after that anyway. So we only have another 3-6 hours of potential cooling. At the current rate of 1°F per hour, that would argue for 12°F-15°F. EDIT: Of course, it drops to 14°F this hour. Still, I think this is supposed to be about the coldest part of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 37/10/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Assuming models are right and the southerlies really kick in between 06z and 09z and the clouds really thicken up, it's not going to cool after that anyway. So we only have another 3-6 hours of potential cooling. At the current rate of 1°F per hour, that would argue for 12°F-15°F. EDIT: Of course, it drops to 14°F this hour. Still, I think this is supposed to be about the coldest part of the night. Well, back up to 15F at 5z. There is still a little bit more time to drop a few more degrees, but winds and clouds should make that hard to do soon. I like the 12-15F range for post 6z low myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 The temperature is actually up to 17F now with overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Oh poop the mallow model pulled out the right number out of the bag. The poop is on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Oh poop the mallow model pulled out the right number out of the bag. The poop is on me. Nah, we managed to find a 13°F somehow in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Hopefully winds pick up and precip show up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I just need a high high temperature, preferably 42°F or better, and I'm set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 Temps moving up quick, 26F this hour. Wind up to 13kt, but you have to imagine that has a ways up to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Breaks in the clouds showing up across NW North Dakota. 40+ is all but a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Breaks in the clouds showing up across NW North Dakota. 40+ is all but a lock.The breaks better get there soon...only 28F this hour and winds are starting to turn easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The breaks better get there soon...only 28F this hour and winds are starting to turn easterly. I was actually shocked it only went up 2F this hour. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 17z ob was 28/15, which lines up with the 1hr projection from the 16z LAMP. LAMP says the temperature touches 34 at 22 and 23z. Mid-30s looks like the most likely scenario at this time. Hopefully it doesn't get stuck lower, otherwise most of us on this forum will lose a lot of ground today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Up to 30 now. The 17z LAMP now gets to 35 at 22 and 23z. 36 wouldn't kill me by any stretch and I'd still easily end up above consensus after 2 days, however warmer would still be better. We'll see. 36 or 37 seems like a reasonable ceiling at this point barring a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'll gladly take anything lower than 39. It would leave me in a good position to finish 2nd or 3rd in cat 3 for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'll take anything above for a good day if the winds can get above 18 knots. Precip will decide whether I have a big score day or minor climb. How are we doing on precip? EDIT: Nice. Jumped from 30 to 36 which is what I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 They've held steady at 37 for two hours now. I'm guessing 37 or 38 will be the high. Winds will be pretty weak for the next several hours...I was banking on the winds shifting north and ramping up right before midnight LST (which happens to be 6z by my math), so there's still some time, it'll be close. Some returns developing over northern ND on radar, although I can't find anyone reporting precip yet. It'll be a good day for me regardless based on temps alone, although if the winds at least can cooperate it'd be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Climo shows 18kts...Pretty good day for me just hoping for a little precip to top it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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