H2Otown_WX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 75F now. Hoping to scrape out 2 more degrees. Just a horrible city for me but if it can get to 77F this at least won't be my drop city and I can hang my hat on a good Day 7 and 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Next please, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is going to be my worst city of the year. So I second the motion to bring on GFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Finished as my best city with a 27th showing. On to the next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I've dropped 67 places since the start of the semester. I will note though, it seems the competition in the challenge has deteriorated as my score of -1.86 yields 96th overall. Back in 2011-12, my friend finished 177th overall with a score of -2.26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not sure the competition has deteriorated so much as we've had several very annoying cities this year... cities where national consensus, due to blind luck, has done very well and prevented people from racking up the large negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 18/0/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 18/0/17/0.00 Tomorrow is modeled to be a very close analog to Saturday. That day was 18/3/16/0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 22/3/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 18/0/17/0.00 Tomorrow is modeled to be a very close analog to Saturday. That day was 18/3/16/0.00. But you didn't analog the bias for that day so it won't be exactly 18/3/16, but I do like 3, just not 18 for the high. I used the 15th and 22nd for analogs for nam, gfs, and euro. Nam/euro combo suggested a low of 8 and gfs suggested a low of 3. Highs were in the range of 21-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 21/4/21/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 22/4/18/0....Models are running way too cold with both highs and lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 But you didn't analog the bias for that day so it won't be exactly 18/3/16, but I do like 3, just not 18 for the high. You can argue a higher max temp given the model biases and the fact that while 850s may be about the same as Saturday, the thicknesses are higher. Here are the model biases on Saturday for the high: MAV -8 MET -6 ECM -3 LAMP -8 Adjusting those based off of their forecasts: MAV re-projection 21 MET re-projection 21 ECM re-projection 23 LAMP re-projection 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 23/6/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 You can argue a higher max temp given the model biases and the fact that while 850s may be about the same as Saturday, the thicknesses are higher. Here are the model biases on Saturday for the high: MAV -8 MET -6 ECM -3 LAMP -8 Adjusting those based off of their forecasts: MAV re-projection 21 MET re-projection 21 ECM re-projection 23 LAMP re-projection 23 Exactly and I even went as far as to look at the cloud forecast for both my analog days and 22nd was very similar, so that's my reasoning for going 22F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 20/1/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 20 / 2 / 22/ 0 probably should done something like 22/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Wanted to go with 20, but chicked out and went with 18/0/15/0. Not really expecting to have a great 1st day as that's typical of me for new city. Can't wait to get these early non-major classes out of way so I can start learning more meteorology, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 20/-2/18/0 For the high, I agree it should be a tad warmer than Saturday. The 18z NAM showed the potential to mix to around 850mb (or very close) around peak heating, with 850mb temps of around -18C...which yields a surface temp of around -5C/23F. However, forecast soundings suggest just enough low level moisture and instability for a CU field to develop late morning into the afternoon...and the models showed a decent amount of moisture around 250mb, so I figured that there would be too many clouds for optimal mixing in that narrow window during the mid to late afternoon, and shaved a bit off of the 23. Went colder than Saturday for the low due to stronger CAA. For the winds we'll see...the models showed 25+ knots at the top of the shallow boundary layer late tonight, and show the potential to mix to 20 knots during the afternoon, so I was hoping they could get 18-20 knots. Not sure if that will work, but consensus is 17 knots so that won't kill me either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 Clear skies and slackening winds have caused the temperature to drop 7F last hour. 3/-2 as of 11z. Can we muster a drop of a few more degrees? Bust factor today comes down to the high. Since the consensus went 18, some of you could start off very strong with a showing in the lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well given 850mb temps are already -18C I think my high of 22 is going to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 No METAR's between 7 and 10z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 No METAR's between 7 and 10z?Yeah I noticed that. I don't think the low or max wind occurred in that timeframe, but hopefully it doesn't become an issue going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Because my forecast is nearly the same as nat. consensus, today isn't that bad of a start in Top 200 although I regret going down from 20 to 18... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I just need three more degrees. I don't think that's unreasonable, but I think 22F is more likely. EDIT: Or it can be 23F this hour. After a bad low forecast, I needed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 So, at least 23 today. It will be interesting to see how warm they can get tomorrow...the winds turn easterly and it will be cloudier than today, but they'll start much warmer than today, by at least 10 degrees. The NAM only shows the potential to mix to around 900mb for a brief time during the early afternoon with temps at that level around -4C. If they can get some sun in that timeframe I suppose it could get close to 40, but I'll have to debate if I want to go that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 ugh terrible wind forecast by me today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 A 33/8 consensus. Wow, if some of the forecasters on this site are correct, we will go flying to the top. Or we could end up looking like a bunch of ..... 39/7/18/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 36/9/22/0.02 Would have gone higher for the maximum tomorrow, if it was not for increasing cloud-cover. (This is still above all guidance that I saw except for the Euro) Could have gone higher with the low tonight, especially since the dew-point jumped to 10F at 0z with the temperature still at 24. Got a little hung up on the wind forecast...guidance is low except for the USL and with a fairly steep pressure gradient developing, leaned on the higher end. Went low on precip...most models clustered near just a couple hundredths of an inch, but the RGEM was up around 0.15". It should be a fun day with any parameter possibly busting in either direction. The algorithm that I could have used to get 23/2 for today is spitting out 41/10 tomorrow . Will keep the formula a secret, but it's heavily weighed upon recent model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 41/15/17/ Trace (0) NAM overdoing the rad cooling tonight.. Clouds moving in late. Went a high high, could be anywhere from 37-42. Precip possible but it's so light I think it would be Trace for 2 or three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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