Brewers Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 73/42/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The wildcard in my mind comes down to the low temperature tonight. There seems to be two scenarios through the past 10 days for this location...either the low completely drops off the table and ends up on the low end of guidance (Mar. 8th, 13th and to some extent the 16th) or the winds hang on and it's on the high end of guidance. Given gradually decreasing winds tonight, dews in the lower 20s, mostly clear skies and the fact that the 8th/13th are fair analogs in terms of wind speed, I leaned slightly lower. You can really make a case either way depending on how you analyze the setup. Two clear clusters in guidance: MET 38 / MAV 40 / ECM 40 USL 43 / SREF 43 / LAMP 45 good post .. for this reason i went cold tn but at the last minute i considered going 2-3 degrees higher. def risky move - especially since this has been the city I've done the best in, but I went with my 'gut' and kept it. 73/38/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 73/43/10/0. Maybe should have gone with 74 or 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 75/39/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 75/39/10/0The temperature tumbled 8 degrees this past hour to 44... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The temperature tumbled 8 degrees this past hour to 44... They also got to 72F yesterday. Shows what I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Still above national consensus somehow, but ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Missed the low by 9 for the 2nd time in 6 days I'm ready for Grand Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Two clear clusters in guidance: MET 38 / MAV 40 / ECM 40 USL 43 / SREF 43 / LAMP 45 Even the lower wasn't quite low enough, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The poop is on me ugh. Well hopefully I dont make the same mistake twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Wow. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Now it's warmer than yesterday already thanks to 20 degrees rise in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Assuming the high gets close to or above 75 and the wind gets to 10 knots or higher I'll stay better than the nat con. But ouch on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Already up 32 degrees from the low, not bad. Same issue again tonight--NAM and GFS both at 37-38 but several compelling reasons why it might not get that cold again. These kind of forecasts are my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm curious to see how high the winds end up for today. If their climo reports use 8z-8z as suggested, then we haven't seen an hourly above 5kt during that span... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 LOL, we might not get above 70 out of today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Ugh, it was looking so good for 75F... now I'm not even sure it'll get to 73F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Ugh, it was looking so good for 75F... now I'm not even sure it'll get to 73F. Nah, RDD just did a joke on us. Up to 72F now. Still 75F looks good. Just keep that wind direction out of the north and it will get there by 0z or just a little after 0z like it did with the 72F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Nah, RDD just did a joke on us. Up to 72F now. Still 75F looks good. Just keep that wind direction out of the north and it will get there by 0z or just a little after 0z like it did with the 72F yesterday. Yeah, good to see 72F this hour. Hopefully 75F. Even 74F would be okay. 73F would have been bad for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 And 72F again, buggers. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 And 72F again, buggers. :'( I hate RDD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 72 again. Edit: 73 is 6 hr high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 72 again. Max was 73...so far... For tomorrow: 75/39/10/0.00 Not going as low tonight as dews are in the upper 20s (9F higher than 24 hours ago) and there is some moisture aloft moving in. For highs tomorrow, the potential looks similar to that of today given the thermal profile, but we'll see if it can actually get to 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 74/42/8/0 Relatively clear to start, but then thicker clouds move in cutting off the drastic fall but allowing the temp to drop slowly. High similar to today, perhaps 1 degree warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 76/45/14/0 for Thursday. With a tightening pressure gradient tonight, the winds may actually increase overnight. That may keep things from bottoming out, but I really don't know. 4km NAM and RAP both struggling to drop below 47 or so, while MOS was 37-40. With similar mid-level temps, similar mixing heights, and what should be a better downsloping flow for tomorrow went warmer on temps. With such a tight pressure gradient I just couldn't buy the low wind numbers the models were spitting out...especially with the way northerly winds tend to funnel into and accelerate into the valley. So we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 77/42/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 76/45/14/0 for Thursday. With a tightening pressure gradient tonight, the winds may actually increase overnight. That may keep things from bottoming out, but I really don't know. 4km NAM and RAP both struggling to drop below 47 or so, while MOS was 37-40. In my experience, the higher resolution NAM and RAP tend to be too mild/high in good radiational cooling setups. I've seen cases where they might predict 47 for example in Connecticut and the low ends up being in the 30s. With that said, light winds, higher dews and some mid-level moisture will most likely keep temperatures higher tonight than they were last night. Big spread on the low forecast...anywhere from 37 to 47 each had at least 33 forecasts apiece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 75/42/10/0 If it can hold at 73 max for today I'll be perfect on the high, but I got screwed on the low (not as bad as some people though). Still beating national consensus. Hope I can keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 In my experience, the higher resolution NAM and RAP tend to be too mild/high in good radiational cooling setups. I've seen cases where they might predict 47 for example in Connecticut and the low ends up being in the 30s. With that said, light winds, higher dews and some mid-level moisture will most likely keep temperatures higher tonight than they were last night. Big spread on the low forecast...anywhere from 37 to 47 each had at least 33 forecasts apiece. I tend to agree with what you've noted about the NAM especially. The RAP has actually tended to really bomb temperatures (as in ridiculously cold) when there's deep snowcover over the Midwest/Ohio Valley this winter, but the NAM often runs warm. I can see the RAP running warm with no snow cover though, which obviously applies to RDD. For this city, it seems like either things work and temps drop into the upper 30's, or they don't work (some wind, or some clouds) and stay in the mid to upper 40's. I'm hoping that they don't work tonight. Day 4 has been the only "in between" low so far, everything else seems to be in either camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 76/38/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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