WxBlue Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nice... look like it'll be above 47 for low temperature which is very good for my score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I know, it just reminds me a lot of last Tuesday hence why I felt like going under guidance was the way to go. Maybe I'm a moron, we'll find out soon enough. No, I definitely agree with you. I'm not sure where people are getting these 72F+ numbers, given the analogy to last week. But we'll see, I guess. I went with 70/46/27/0 myself, though I'm not THAT confident in my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Winds are already 22kt as of 16z. They're not done ramping up either. MAV/LAMP both peak at 26kt later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well, at least the winds look to verify at 25+ knots in all likelihood, and I was 1 better than the consensus on the low, so I have some cushion if the high doesn't get as warm as I thought. Mid-level temperatures looked similar to last Tuesday, however the BL looked deeper and it looked to start a little warmer (which it did), so I was hoping for a few degrees warmer. We'll see, most of the raw model data struggles to get highs warmer than 70-71 (except for the RAP which looks like ~72). Just get me 72 and I'll be happy enough. 73 may be pushing it but we'll see. Leaning warm seems to work more times than not this time of year on sunny days, however that's certainly not true 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Going with 47 on low and 23 knots on winds got me going up almost 200 spots into Top 50. I suppose it'll be even better if temps fail to get past 72. Not bad for forecasting without 18z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 not sure what I was thinking going 74 for the high temp .. although I'm happy going 26 knts which may be too low and 49 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Temps are slow to rise and LAMP just bumped down from 73 (earlier run this morning) to 70 as of the 16z projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Damn. Originally had 29kts, and decided to bump down to 27... definitely wishing I had kept my 29 in there now! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Holy crap on the winds. Not liking the slow temp rise though. USL will bust by nearly 15 knots on the wind. MOS was closer but was still far too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The peak was 37 knots wont b higher than 30 sustained just like day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 What's funny is that I had 25 knots before cutting it down to 23 knots because NWS was the only one going that high up... oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 No, I definitely agree with you. I'm not sure where people are getting these 72F+ numbers, given the analogy to last week. But we'll see, I guess. I went with 70/46/27/0 myself, though I'm not THAT confident in my numbers. Only 58F now and not rising fast much like yesterday. Maybe I should have gone even lower. Had 48F for the low originally and of course wishing I'd gone higher on the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Given the 61F right now, 68-70 seems like the most likely high range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Given the 61F right now, 68-70 seems like the most likely high range. Agreed. 2F warmer than 24 hours ago. That alone would yield 65 + 2 = 67 The latest LAMP projection goes to 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Bad day for me. High on the temp consensus and low on the low, wind was 1kt higher than consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 65 so 4 higher than yesterday already. Still thinking 71-72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 65 so 4 higher than yesterday already. Still thinking 71-72. ... ? If we remain 4 higher, that argues for 69F. I think 70F is most likely. 69F or 71F wouldn't shock me... but I think 68F is more likely than 72F. EDIT: On top of that, we're exactly 1F warmer than this time on 3/11, which is still looking like a good analog. And that would also argue for 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well you know what!? I think its gonna hit 77 :popcorn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 ... ? If we remain 4 higher, that argues for 69F. I think 70F is most likely. 69F or 71F wouldn't shock me... but I think 68F is more likely than 72F. EDIT: On top of that, we're exactly 1F warmer than this time on 3/11, which is still looking like a good analog. And that would also argue for 70F. And 69F so 6F warmer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well you know what!? I think its gonna hit 77 :popcorn: Woah hot hot hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thankfully, for those of us who went higher, it looks like we will tap into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yeah, I think 70-71 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yeah, I think 70-71 right now. We'll see. 69 at 22z and yesterday they leveled off at their high between 0 and 1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We'll see. 69 at 22z and yesterday they leveled off at their high between 0 and 1z. Still following 3/11 very closely, and still only 1F warmer. In other words, I fully expect us to be up to 70F next hour, the question is if/how much we warm from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 For tomorrow:73/42/11/0.00 Today's high so far is 71 as of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 73/45/10/0 - High clouds and light winds to start the night will delay the cooling process. Tomorrow's high will be a bit warmer than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 75/45/11/0 I think they'll be warmer than today, but wasn't sure how much. I went aggressive, hopefully not too warm. I'm not sure the winds will go calm tonight and there may be some high clouds, so I banked on a warmer low. That obviously would bust by several degrees if they do in fact stay clear and get calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Well, skewered on my low high. :/ Oh well, better luck next time. 74/46/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 75/46/12/0. Believe tomorrow will be like day 2 just winds will be a touch weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 The wildcard in my mind comes down to the low temperature tonight. There seems to be two scenarios through the past 10 days for this location...either the low completely drops off the table and ends up on the low end of guidance (Mar. 8th, 13th and to some extent the 16th) or the winds hang on and it's on the high end of guidance. Given gradually decreasing winds tonight, dews in the lower 20s, mostly clear skies and the fact that the 8th/13th are fair analogs in terms of wind speed, I leaned slightly lower. You can really make a case either way depending on how you analyze the setup. Two clear clusters in guidance: MET 38 / MAV 40 / ECM 40 USL 43 / SREF 43 / LAMP 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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