WxBlue Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 76/43/5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 76/41/7/0 a gust to 8-1o kts right at 6z is not out of the question. but i assumed not likely since sfc inversion.my tablet keyboad is broken. Winds here are 08z-08z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 76/41/7/0 Winds here are 08z-08z. Edit because mobile posting is so jumpy-posted prematurely. Why are there so many discrepancies with how different NWS offices compile climo reports? We recently looked at climate reports for two different NWS offices covering Connecticut...one of them used 6z-6z, while other used 12a-12a local time. In the WxChallenge it's not clear, unless I'm missing something. (since the standard seems to vary from NWS office to office) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Had to forecast a few hours early due to work and went 75/45/11 Am thinking a degree or two cooler than today with some clouds and cooler air aloft. For the low, am hoping clouds keep them from bottoming out. For winds, it looks like they may be able to mix down 10 or so knots 18-21z if they indeed get into the low to mid 70's, and with the winds funneling down the valley figured I'd go high...hopefully not too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 The wind today peaked at 6kt per climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Winds here are 08z-08z. Welp. At least I know for week #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Edit because mobile posting is so jumpy-posted prematurely. Why are there so many discrepancies with how different NWS offices compile climo reports? We recently looked at climate reports for two different NWS offices covering Connecticut...one of them used 6z-6z, while other used 12a-12a local time. In the WxChallenge it's not clear, unless I'm missing something. (since the standard seems to vary from NWS office to office) As far as I know, it's always 12AM to 12AM Local Standard Time for the main ASOS stations. Can you point me to a location that's different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 As far as I know, it's always 12AM to 12AM Local Standard Time for the main ASOS stations. Can you point me to a location that's different?Just checked KBDR out of Connecticut. Yesterday morning at 12:17 a.m. EDT they were 33F. At 12:49 a.m. they had a wind gust to 45 mph. Daily climo report says the high was 29F with a peak wind gust of 43 mph. The peak RH was at 1:00 a.m., so maybe they run from 5z to 5z. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=BDR&network=CT_ASOS&year=2014&month=3&day=13 http://kamala.cod.edu/ct/latest.cdus41.BDR.KOKX.html Edit: This verifies what you said as EST is one hour before EDT. What's confusing (to me perhaps) is that the neighboring NWS office (BOX) covering KBDL must be *referencing* EST in their climo report, because they list the BDL high yesterday at 12:11 a.m., but using EDT, their temperature at 12:18 a.m. was 35. Perhaps what was throwing me off was either a misinterpretation of time on my end (EDT vs. EST) or a lack of consistency between WFO's with *referencing* EST year-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Very happy with the low of 43 However, it does look like it's slightly cooler today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Very happy with the low of 43 However, it does look like it's slightly cooler today... Its running 2F colder but that can be made up hopefully for a high of 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its running 2F colder but that can be made up hopefully for a high of 76. I would love to get a 76 out of this to go perfect on high/low part of the day. Winds might be little higher than 5 knots almost for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And we made up the slow start. Gonna be at least 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Almost had 77F for today. Wish I had had the guts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm perfect for today assuming everything holds from now to 6z. Of course temperature could go to 77 or 78 and I'll bet climo will show higher winds around 6-8 knots EDIT: Day 4 had maxed out at 77 and winds are picking up too. Should be at least 7 knots now based on last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well, I tried to give up by using guidance. Instead, I gained 310 spots. I guess this means I have to at least attempt Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Assuming a wind of 8 knots I'll finish the week 1.5 points below consensus which is a standardized score of 0.99. Definitely some work to do week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 How long does it take to do a climo report. Did they all get the day off or something? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's really killing me is the wind with this town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well, I'm one of three still above national consensus at UNC Asheville with a score of -0.33. My professor is the only other one to do so (with whooping -3.60) while forecasting for all days as the 3rd guy above national consensus guidanced twice and still got score of -0.98 even with 5 pt penalty O_o What's really killing me is the wind with this town. I feel like I missed out on the low for this city, but Day 4 low made it up for it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks like 10 knots. That should put me a smidge above consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 How long does it take to do a climo report. Did they all get the day off or something? LolI've noticed it usually takes until early afternoon. I tweeted the manager yesterday (around lunchtime) about the Day 3 wind and it was still a few hours before it was changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 72/45/28/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 74/44/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 72/46/21/0.00 The low temperatures tonight are tricky. Winds are expected to stay near 10kt or so, but with dews in the 20s and colder air advecting in aloft, there is a possibility that they could tumble quickly if winds back off. For the winds tomorrow, I was tempted to go higher, but based on near-term trends in comparison to current model guidance, I went with a more conservative 21kt forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 72/46/21/0 MOS isn't as bullish with winds compared to last Tuesday so didn't go too high. EDIT: I guess I went with 71 instead.....ooops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I don't know where these high highs are coming from....69/45/22/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Had to forecast 3 hours before deadline so I got 70/47/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 73/46/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I don't know where these high highs are coming from....69/45/22/0. ??? USL 12Z and 22Z had 72 NAM MOS 12Z had 71 GFS MOS 12Z and 18Z had 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 ??? USL 12Z and 22Z had 72 NAM MOS 12Z had 71 GFS MOS 12Z and 18Z had 74 I know, it just reminds me a lot of last Tuesday hence why I felt like going under guidance was the way to go. Maybe I'm a moron, we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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