wxmeddler Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 73/39/6/0 Thinking not getting as high as today as low is so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 76/44/10/0 It looks like they'll be at least 2 degrees warmer than today, but went conservative. No idea on the low. The pressure gradient tonight will be weaker, but any winds will be funneling into the valley so they may have a hard time going calm. So I went a bit colder on the low than last night but didn't go with the tank job. The USL, NWS and 4km NAM have all done a decent job with temps thus far and didn't want to stray too far from those numbers. 4km NAM has been running too cool with highs by a few degrees but has been decent with the lows thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 73/39/6/0 Thinking not getting as high as today as low is so low. They do have high low spreads of 35-36 in patterns like this, so um yeah you know what I'm getting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 76/43/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 76/44/7/0.00 Wind helped out big time today. Ranked 10th in the country as of 00z. For tonight, I was very tempted to go cooler with the low, given light to nearly calm winds and dews in the 20s...however, the higher resolution models keep lows closely clustered in the mid-40s and warmer air has advected in aloft. Winds look relatively light tomorrow with high pressure in the vicinity and a minimal pressure gradient. Max temperatures tomorrow could go higher, but without much in the way of downsloping, I kept it conservative. In order to keep near the top, I don't think I will be going out on too many limbs unless I have high confidence in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 74/38/11/0 wish i raised max temp 1-2 degrees .. really banking on it going calm around 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Those who went low for the minimum could make up big ground - if the lower end of guidance is correct. 77% of the forecasts made had lows of 43 or higher. The most commonly selected low was 45F, likely because of the USL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm too shy about leaving behind NWS/USL group so decided to go with these two rather than NAM/GFS 75/45/7/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 75/40/8/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Does this place only hit its highest temp and highest wind speeds on the hourly obs? What are the odds of that back to back days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Does this place only hit its highest temp and highest wind speeds on the hourly obs? What are the odds of that back to back days? Surrounding obs (from personal weather stations) support the highs, though. Seems like these kinds of days just have flattish, long-lasting peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I sucked on the low I had 46. Completely looked over the fact that winds would lighten up, and with skies being clear that is a deadly signal for radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 37...nice. Tonight looks very similar as long as clouds don't become an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Low wind forecast saved me from having a big drop in score because of a huge miss on low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hoping to see the winds jump up around 17z like the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 For tonight, I was very tempted to go cooler with the low, given light to nearly calm winds and dews in the 20s... Looks like a huge bust for the USL. Temperatures totally tanked early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I had 37, but got scared and went 39. Still payed off with being on the correct side of the curve. They do have high low spreads of 35-36 in patterns like this, so um yeah you know what I'm getting at 36 +37 = 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I had 37, but got scared and went 39. Still payed off with being on the correct side of the curve. 36 +37 = 73 They are going for a new personal best this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Winds have been pretty light and steady. Guidance shows a slight increase over the next few hours, but only by a few knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 74/42/5/0 for tomorrow. Calm winds/clear skies will be good for rad cooling. Also temperatures will be slightly colder than today with temperatures above the surface slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 74/42/5/0 for tomorrow. Calm winds/clear skies will be good for rad cooling. Also temperatures will be slightly colder than today with temperatures above the surface slightly colder. Jumped the gun a bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Jumped the gun a bit lol I got it in early, because I'm at work right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I got it in early, because I'm at work right now . I think he meant we probably shouldn't be sharing our numbers until after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 74/43/7/0.00 Although winds are light tonight, satellite and guidance both indicate at least a partial increase in cloud-cover. This should limit radiational cooling, unlike this morning. Winds look light again tomorrow, although I think they will verify 1-2kt higher than today. So far from the hourlies, the max wind today is still just 4kt. Temperatures look slightly cooler with some cloud-cover and modest cold advection in the afternoon. Results for today so far: 76/36/4/0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 76, 44, 6, - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 76/42/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 74/43/5/0 probably went too low with winds but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 75/41/9/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 So far for Day 3 it looks like those who went with guidance gained a lot of ground. The guidance forecast for Day 3 is only resulting in 1.5 error points so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 a gust to 8-1o kts right at 6z is not out of the question. but i assumed not likely since sfc inversion. my tablet keyboad is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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