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WxChallenge 2013-14


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Hey Max,

 

Hysplit had some high numbers for tomorrow. I calculated 78 for a high. I don't think it's gonna be that high.

It's possible. But I don't know for sure.

Edit: Your calculation is also dependent on how high you set your parcel heights and usually you want that to be the BL height.

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Hey Max,

 

Hysplit had some high numbers for tomorrow. I calculated 78 for a high. I don't think it's gonna be that high.

I'm getting anywhere from 73.4 to around 76. My assumptions might be different from yours so therefore the way I calculate the temperature might be leading to a lower number then yours, But I'm using stations west of the Great Salt Lake as my origin point. 

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73/44/15/0.00

 

The high only got to 69 so far today, but tomorrow still looks at least slightly milder. Sided on the edge of caution, so didn't go too high with the max. Despite dew-points in the 20s tonight, winds should limit radiational cooling. Winds may peak right around 6z before falling. They were still 21kt as of 0z, so it will be interesting to see what the peak winds are for tomorrow. I imagine many contestants will skew their day 2 winds high due to what happened today.

 

16th in the country right now is not bad, but it's only one day and things could sway a lot before the first RDD week is over.

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Feel like I got lucky today with the 69, but I'll take it for 120th spot in nation! The reason why I got 67 for today is because yesterday underperformed with all models.

 

73/44/11/0.00 for tomorrow since I didn't want to take a risk for anything although I nearly gambled lower temperature with NAM/GFS but I end up listening to NWS/USL slightly more. Maybe winds should have been higher, but I never like going too far from NWS/USL.

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75/41/12

 

 

 

08z is midnight PST. ;)

It's actually 7z now :P Dude Ben Franklin proposed DST you should at least remember what time it is lol

Edit: Stupid standard time. I'm going to argue they should change like everyone else. What a bunch of crock. Regardless, 980mb winds look high at around 9z tonight and it's close enough to the surface I liked going 17.  

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It's actually 7z now :P Dude Ben Franklin proposed DST you should at least remember what time it is lol

Edit: Stupid standard time. I'm going to argue they should change like everyone else. What a bunch of crock. Regardless, 980mb winds look high at around 9z tonight and it's close enough to the surface I liked going 17.  

 

:lol:

 

Yeah, the climate reports go by midnight local STANDARD time as far as I know, even during DST.

 

I don't like going that high because the winds are at night, so harder to mix down to the surface.

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73/44/11/0.00 Didnt wanna chance any higher winds. I have gotten burned before where teh winds just shut down like 1 hour before 06Z.

Near-term trends suggest lighter winds, especially with just a 5kt report at the last hourly ob.
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At least I hit the wind.

Nice spike to 16kt. I was mildly concerned, but the models did show winds increasing somewhat today. Good thing, because if the winds had peaked at 6z (which was a possibility), us with higher winds would have lost ground.

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Nice spike to 16kt. I was mildly concerned, but the models did show winds increasing somewhat today. Good thing, because if the winds had peaked at 6z (which was a possibility), us with higher winds would have lost ground.

Hopefully the winds go calm tonight for a few hours prior to 6z and the temp plummets a bit. Certainly possible I think.

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Have I mentioned that I might dislike Redding more than BWI, and it's only day 2? At least the wind spiked up. 76 will be a stretch for the high, probably 74-75.

If the temp stays up all night again with little wind this time I might just say eff lol

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If the temp stays up all night again with little wind this time I might just say eff lol

The highs are what are killing me so far. Wasn't thrilled about the low but I was only one off the consensus with that. Wind has kept me afloat (kind of). Left a few points on the floor so to speak yesterday with the wind but was still 5 knots better than consensus yesterday and 4 knots better today.

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