H2Otown_WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope you all have a good idea now what it is like to forecast in the DC/Baltimore area! Come back soon! More difficult than PAFA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hate BWI They can't manage more than a 1-2 degree jump each hour yesterday and then hold at 31 all afternoon with just a thin cirrus deck and E-NE winds. Today with a lower and thicker cloud deck they jump 3F to 36 by 11:00AM with NE winds. They'll inexplicably rise to like 43 this afternoon I'm sure just to screw my 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well as long as the high gets to 40°F or above (I'm feeling good about that), I at least beat national consensus in this city. Only by 0.1 points if the wind is just 12kts, though that's unlikely. If the wind manages 16kts, I'll end the city with a better than -1 score, which isn't great, but I'll take whatever I can get at this point. (This is all also assuming the low doesn't drop below 27°F by 06z tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'm in the same boat and need 41 or higher to somehow manage a top 30 finish after struggling all week....kicking myself for not staying with my original 43... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Assuming a 40+ high I should finish in the top 30 and could end right up at 20th depending on wind. What I'm kicking myself for is a forecast high of 40 on my part would have ensured me a trophy. I was debating between 42 and 36 in an effort to try to go for it and I definitely picked the wrong side. A lot of the people I needed to pass went 37 or 38 so 40 with my low/wind would've done the job. Decent regardless and top at OU by about 10 points...but since our break was this week more than half the people have either been taking climo or guidance all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Annnnddd 40 at the latest ob. Keep climbing baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 44/28/15/0. I need to beat nat con. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 The hourlies have leveled off at 40. I'd imagine the high still reaches at least the lower 40s. Today really could have gone one way or another in a big way, it largely came down to where the cloud shield hung on. Edit for climo:42/29/14/0.00 Nailing the wind (assuming it stays) helped that I had a less than stellar temperature forecast on both ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Assuming the climo holds (it should but there's some chance the low sneaks below 28 by 6z) I'll finish 20th for the city/-2.59. One of these cities, I'll learn how not to screw myself over in the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well, the afternoon climo report is in: 42/29/14. I'll finish with 3 points of error for the day, tying my best for this city (sadly, had 3 error points on Day 3 as well). I finish at 0.23 above consensus which is disappointing, I really thought I'd do well with an east coast city seeing as I live on the east coast but like Newark, I was overmatched. Looking forward to superadiabatic lapse rates in Redding, CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Assuming the climo holds (it should but there's some chance the low sneaks below 28 by 6z) I'll finish 20th for the city/-2.59. One of these cities, I'll learn how not to screw myself over in the last couple of days. This is one of my best finishes (44/-2.12 - assuming climo holds) for a city, even with a few screw-ups down the home stretch. It's often about taking calculated risks and hoping they work out. Luck thrown in there a bit can help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is one of my best finishes (44/-2.12 - assuming climo holds) for a city, even with a few screw-ups down the home stretch. It's often about taking calculated risks and hoping they work out. Luck thrown in there a bit can help too. This will be my highest finish in the rankings for a city, however Cheyenne and Atlanta I pulled off better standardized scores. You're certainly right it's all about taking smart risks and hoping they work...sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I had it all wrong this week haha...went warm on Tuesday and Thursday and cold on Friday, and the opposite happened. Luckily my lows/winds worked out well enough each day to counter-act my highs a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 This will be my highest finish in the rankings for a city, however Cheyenne and Atlanta I pulled off better standardized scores. You're certainly right it's all about taking smart risks and hoping they work...sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I had it all wrong this week haha...went warm on Tuesday and Thursday and cold on Friday, and the opposite happened. Luckily my lows/winds worked out well enough each day to counter-act my highs a bit. We actually had similar success. I also struggled with the highs, but was pretty solid with lows and winds. You will likely finish with sole possession of the least error points for wind with 2.5. Our error points from high/low/wind: You: 25/8/2.5 Me: 24/11/3.5 I noticed for BWI that the common pattern was for high temperatures to go above/well-above guidance in most cases. 18z GFS had a really tough time with low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Just barely beat nat con with it only getting to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 We actually had similar success. I also struggled with the highs, but was pretty solid with lows and winds. You will likely finish with sole possession of the least error points for wind with 2.5. Our error points from high/low/wind: You: 25/8/2.5 Me: 24/11/3.5 I noticed for BWI that the common pattern was for high temperatures to go above/well-above guidance in most cases. 18z GFS had a really tough time with low temperatures. I guess I can't speak for every region, but models seem to under-do maxes this time of year, especially when there's either sun or decent WAA. Today in CLE we hit 53...yesterday's Euro had about 48, the hi-res NAM about 44, and the GFS 40-41. It seemed that the few days where there were a lot of clouds and CAA the warmer guidance did well (especially the Euro it seemed)...as in maxes weren't higher than every model, although the GFS ran consistently cold for maxes and often mins as well. This seemed like a place where if all else was favorable, they'd radiate well enough and the colder min guidance was the way to go...however, if there were clouds or winds, a middle ground or even warmer solution would work for mins...except for day 6 when they lost a few degrees with clouds in place. This was much more predictable than AFA, even if still frustrating at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I was banking on the coastal trending northwest and there being more low clouds, so I only went 38. I still finished 2nd, and the winner only went 36 for the high, but that's more a function of people forgetting to forecast while we're on spring break than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Finished Baltimore with -0.70. My good run this semester continues... My goal is to finish above national consensus for the year (currently 0.19 thanks to bad 1st semester) as well as having the best freshman score at UNCA (currently #1 among freshmen here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70/46/27/0 Sided towards the lower end of guidance given 850mb temps in the afternoon around 6C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Testing the waters... 66/42/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 72/45/28/0.00 Went high on the winds. Tried to change my low to 46, but was literally two seconds late. (Not a big deal) The wildcard here is the wind. The consensus was much lower. MAV MOS was at 25, but LAMP was showing 31. I didn't take as much time as I'd like to fully analyze the forecast, but the pressure gradient tomorrow looks pretty sharp in northern California. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Weelllll.. I thought I was good until the 0z ob came in, jumped 4 degrees in 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 67/45/21/0.00 Yeah, I don't like my high anymore after looking at the consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 74/44/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 75/45/31/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 69/48/26/0 Wishing I had gone higher on the high, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 74/46/25/0 I like my chances to beat consensus on the high and wind even if I'm off a bit. Wasn't sure on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 74/46/25/0 I like my chances to beat consensus on the high and wind even if I'm off a bit. Wasn't sure on the low. Looks like it was 45 so in between our forecasts. Winds I have no clue they will do but fairly confident in our highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temperature at KRDD is 1 degrees colder than yesterday so far at 8:53 PDT which gives me hope that this isn't going above 70 or 71. However, I'm not holding my breath because temperature did stalled for couple of hours before spiking to 67 and I'm not expecting a stall again. Hey, at least I nailed the low so the damage shouldn't be that bad if temperature get little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 30kts on the 17z obs haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 30kts on the 17z obs haha Was a bit surprised to see that, but it helps that I went with 28. Assuming that's a true ob, maybe I should have gone with the 31 on the 23z LAMP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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