Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 44/15 for temps. Ugh wish I stayed true to the calculation instead of going 1F under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Tomorrow looks fun. For tonight's low, things may clear for a few hours and the winds may slacken some towards morning...will that be enough for a hard drop at some point? Temps are starting off much warmer this evening. And then tomorrow, there looks to be more clouds and an east flow...however, I'd imagine a lot of snow has melted, and the NAM shows the potential to mix above 900mb (eyeballing) which is higher than today. I think tonight's low will be several degrees warmer than last night's and I think tomorrow will be several degrees cooler than today...but I'm not sure if I buy the models that struggle to warm temps above freezing. There's a bit of a CAD signature but the NAM soundings suggest a thicker boundary layer than we've seen the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Because backwards means that the air is coming from an upstream location and BWI is downstream of that location. Basically yesterdays weather at X is todays weather at Y and X is upstream of Y. But the air parcel changes obviously adiabatically as it ascends and descends along its entire course towards wherever it is headed. If you choose forward you basically are saying that the air originates from BWI aka BWI is the upstream location and HYSPLIT will show you going forward where the air goes from BWI downstream somewhere. Okay. I still don't get the change the default time statement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Okay. I still don't get the change the default time statement though. The default time assumes a forward trajectory, and is thus a "start time". If you run a backward trajectory, the "start time" is actually the end time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 By the way, using the HYSPLIT and seeing it give you trajectories that traverse the ocean waters and over the bay before heading into BWI from the east means that the parcel will probably be governed more by the water temperature then any adiabatic process. So I'm not really going to use it for a calculation for day 7. Mainly for purposes of seeing the track of the air. And there should be more low-level cloud cover tomorrow as well so that will hamper temps too. I just don't feel a HYSPLIT calculation is going to work for a day like tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 35/17/15/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 36/19/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 36/22/14/0 Watch me get burned on the low again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 33/19/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 36/22/14/0 Watch me get burned on the low again Not to be the bearer of bad news but the days I chose as analogs said to go a touch colder than the USL and a touch warmer than the 18z GFS. Basically, also exactly or if you dare a wee bit colder than the euro. Not looking good afraid, but I could be wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Fuuuuu... Just boned. I usually have class Wed and my alarm off, so... climo. I really thought I put in Guidance. That's going to cost me my #1 spot cumulatively at Millersville with now Anchorage better than BWI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Fuuuuu... Just boned. I usually have class Wed and my alarm off, so... climo. I really thought I put in Guidance. That's going to cost me my #1 spot cumulatively at Millersville with now Anchorage better than BWI... Curious what you would have went for tomorrow if you did not forget? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 33/19/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not to be the bearer of bad news but the days I chose as analogs said to go a touch colder than the USL and a touch warmer than the 18z GFS. Basically, also exactly or if you dare a wee bit colder than the euro. Not looking good afraid, but I could be wrong too.Yeah, I know I'm gambling with a warm low. Was worried about a lack of calm winds and clear skies causing temps to stay up. So far, so good for me, but it's still really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 32/19/14/0.00 Originally had 17 for a low, but the trends tonight suggest less cooling, especially with the winds a bit ramped up. Hoping I don't get burned once again on going too low for the max temp. 2nd Edit: The setup for tomorrow looks similar in some ways to Monday and they only reached 29 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 44/15/15/0 should be the final for day 6. Considering the winds were sustained at 12 knots at midnight (and less on every other hourly ob), the peak winds probably occurred just before midnight local time/5z (the cut-off for the climo report and wind)...so I'd imagine the day 7 winds will also be near that ball park. As for tonight's temps, down to 29 now with a BKN sky and decent winds...however, they did drop 3F last hour. I think my 22 will be a bit warm but I'm still skeptical of a drop below 20. I'll wake up in the morning to a low in the 10's I'm sure, but for now I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 The low is 22 as of 7, unless they trickle down another degree in the next half hour or so, but I wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not to be the bearer of bad news but the days I chose as analogs said to go a touch colder than the USL and a touch warmer than the 18z GFS. Basically, also exactly or if you dare a wee bit colder than the euro. Not looking good afraid, but I could be wrong too.I suck. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm glad my low worked out, although I would've loved more than a 1 degree rise last hour...up to 27 now. There appear to be some breaks in the thin cirrus deck to the west, so perhaps that'll allow temps to rise a bit more as we head into the afternoon. Some lower clouds have also been floating around. I'm definitely sweating the high. I'll take 35, but 36 likely pushes me into first assuming the winds today are 14+ knots which I think they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 30/22/12/0.00 so far. Temperatures slowly rising and should level off soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So much for 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Gained 37 points today with my climo mishap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I can't believe they didn't manage anymore than 13 knots. I need to have a reallly good day 8...so I'll gamble somewhere and hope it pays off. I still moved up a bit despite being off 5 on the high due to the low and winds cooperating...may as well go for it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Bombed today (37 pts) with climo, so already a drop city. Went as risky as plausable. 37/26/17/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Ugh. 40/27/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This was more of a go for it forecast but I do think it may verify 36/28/14/0 For tonight's low am going to need to bank on a continued stiff east to NE breeze and clouds keeping temps from dropping. For tomorrow's high am going to need to bank on the winds turning more NNE, a bit of lingering CAD and clouds to keep temps from rising much at all. Wind I feel pretty decent about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 41/28/14/0 The high could be anything from 35 to 45, really hope we can get some mixing tomorrow since 925mb temps warm nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 41/28/16/0 Good riddance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope you all have a good idea now what it is like to forecast in the DC/Baltimore area! Come back soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Been liking the Euro for the high temps lately. It had 44 tomorrow. My WRF I ran had 43, but I took a shot in the middle of those and the NAM/GFS and went with 42/27/14/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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