wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 So, question... did you guys base your low's off of tonight's traditional low or 6z tomorrow? I did mine for 6z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 40/18/14/0 Was thinking warmer for the low with high clouds much of the night, especially after 6z, but bumped down when I saw the 0z ob. There should be a better window of sun tomorrow to go along with slightly higher mixing, a warmer start and slightly warmer 925mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Today was the best forecast I ever had falling one knot short of perfect day to get me all the way back to 0.00 from 2.50 or so. I think I finally figured out "the system" for this city so... 39/14/12/0. I am loving the fact 14 degrees is two degrees below the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 42/14/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 38/15/14/0.00 Relatively low confidence, so went close to the consensus. I could see both the low and/or high swing in either direction. Thinking that clouds and northerly wind limit the high for tomorrow, but we'll see. Dew-points on the climb tonight and temperatures are only slowly falling, so I think the low will either be near or somewhat higher than the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 39/14/13/0 I'm not liking my low right now. These clouds are going to make it tough to drop toward mid teens. Need an hour window to get the temp down a bit quicker. I like everything else I got. That North wind will keep high in 30's, but clearing probably early afternoon should provide a good window of mixing for a quick temp spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Either I'm going to look like a butt or a genius with my 19F tonight... I thought it was good at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Either I'm going to look like a butt or a genius with my 19F tonight... I thought it was good at the time Temp bumped up to 22F this hour. I had 21 but got scared when it got down to 23 for the 0z ob. It's still early but unless it clears just before sunrise the warmer side of consensus may work for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Down to 19... please go away, clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Clouds were well-modeled, and are not going away: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8ir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Clouds were well-modeled, and are not going away: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8ir.html Yeah, it doesn't look good for me just by looking at satellite hopefully there's a window somehow later tonight so it can at least get close to 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 Edit: The low is 15 and should stay there. Now it's time to watch the high and see just how quickly they recover today. Winds should be picking up during the second half of the day as the pressure gradient increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Second morning in a row the temperatures have leveled off for hours and then decided to just start dropping again even though it's cloudy and that's killing me. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I seriously thought I forecasted 14 for low. I actually had 15. Pleasant surprise. Sleep deprivation ftw? Let's see what the high can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Clouds look to be moving out. I like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Cooling with clouds at night... ok. Either I'm going to look like a butt or a genius with my 19F tonight... I thought it was good at the time butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 38 lmao thank you hysplit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 38 now. Max's 42 might be conservative The strongest winds looked to be this evening. So hopefully that holds. I'm still less than 4 points from the top but I'm starting to run out of time to make that up. I won't be in my car or working like the last two days when the 0z deadline passes so hopefully that helps. Still not thrilled that the temps dropped so much with the cloud cover last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 38 now. Max's 42 might be conservative The strongest winds looked to be this evening. So hopefully that holds. I'm still less than 4 points from the top but I'm starting to run out of time to make that up. I won't be in my car or working like the last two days when the 0z deadline passes so hopefully that helps. Still not thrilled that the temps dropped so much with the cloud cover last night. I swear I did my calculation correct but I could see 43. 44 probably but I dont know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I swear I did my calculation correct but I could see 43. 44 probably but I dont know There are plenty of non-adiabatic processes that can account for the HYSPLIT method being wrong. Just because you calculated 42F adiabatically doesn't mean the sun won't have something else to say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 40 for the max via the latest ob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I hope the max not being on the ob spell trouble for my 42 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We probably still have at least a couple hours of heating left. Unless we get strong easterlies off the bay... a "bay breeze". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like clouds really on the decrease now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ok, I lied. I calculated 6.3C I just didnt believe it could get that high today. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Whew, I am glad BWI got down to 15 somehow. Because of that and the fact high is on my side of consensus, my overall city score is unlikely to be worse than 0.00 where I am right now. I need winds to start picking up so I can officially enter into national consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like 43-44. As long as winds get to 17 tonight I will finally pass consensus at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like 43-44. As long as winds get to 17 tonight I will finally pass consensus at BWI. Hey Max when using hysplit why choose a backward trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hey Max when using hysplit why choose a backward trajectory? Because backwards means that the air is coming from an upstream location and BWI is downstream of that location. Basically yesterdays weather at X is todays weather at Y and X is upstream of Y. But the air parcel changes obviously adiabatically as it ascends and descends along its entire course towards wherever it is headed. If you choose forward you basically are saying that the air originates from BWI aka BWI is the upstream location and HYSPLIT will show you going forward where the air goes from BWI downstream somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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