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WxChallenge 2013-14


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36/25(so far)/19/0.04 on the climo

Max: 2500ft then there is a secondary ridge just W of the airport with the last 400ft of that. So ~2000ft with the apps then 400ft just W of the airport.

Ok thanks, this time with a bit of some more assumptions, I think my calculations will hold true using HYSPLIT knowing the elevation of the mountains just west of BWI.

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I don't even want to think about the forecast next week for multiple reasons JT haha

 

Ha, well we'll see. I'm kinda disappointed at my performance at this point for this being my home ASOS. The first day I relied too much on gut then the second too much on modeling (swinging back the other way). Lets see how tomorrow goes.

 

Edit:

Unlike the last two days, I have a fairly high confidence for my forecast tomorrow. Call it 8/10

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Ha, well we'll see. I'm kinda disappointed at my performance at this point for this being my home ASOS. The first day I relied too much on gut then the second too much on modeling (swinging back the other way). Lets see how tomorrow goes.

 

It happens dude. No worries and it's still fairly early. I think tomorrow will be a big moving day. I think I might have under estimated those winds for tomorrow. I still like the temps reaching mid-upper 30's though with that late Feb. sun. BWI loves 2 things, sun shine and wind. That should make people hate this city even more  :lol:

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Did you see next week. Woooee!

 

Ps. Check out the Mid-Atl subforum and pick their brains. Most all of them live in the DC/Balt area.

Lol, I am hoping most of the precip. is on Monday so I don't have to contend with that. Maybe I will take a look in (Mid-Atl subforum) there. I'm really surprised so many people went 38F for tomorrow. If SPC Mesoanalysis had a clue, I calculated their 850 to surface lapse rate to be 11.2 C/km today. They would have to exceed that tomorrow with arguably a slightly colder air mass and lower heights. 

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Lol, I am hoping most of the precip. is on Monday so I don't have to contend with that. Maybe I will take a look in (Mid-Atl subforum) there. I'm really surprised so many people went 38F for tomorrow. If SPC Mesoanalysis had a clue, I calculated their 850 to surface lapse rate to be 11.2 C/km today. They would have to exceed that tomorrow with arguably a slightly colder air mass and lower heights. 

 

You're assuming models have 850mb right tomorrow. They didn't today, so I don't know why they would tomorrow.

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