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WxChallenge 2013-14


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You should be ok. I probably should have went lower with the winds but hoping that around midnight tonight they go over into day 6 as well if they pick up tonight like modeled. I do like Monday as an analog day to tomorrow. Hopefully we do well.

Yeah, I won't argue about having the same temp forecast as you :lol:

 

I just hope it drops a little more before 6z tonight than you want it too, then tomorrow it can do exactly as you have forecasted.

 

Edit: 8 people went with a low of -29 and 3 of them post here. That's probably a good thing.

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Didn't guidance but didn't have time to look a much.

3/-29/5/0

If today goes well I may finish a shade above consensus depending of the final wind numbers which I haven't even checked this week. Amazing I'm even close to consensus :lol:

 

On the same boat here! I need high temperature to do well because I struck out on the low :(

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33/22/12/0.03"

 

They should radiate well tonight so went colder than the raw models and closer to the MET/MAV. If there was any legitimate opportunity for sun tomorrow during the morning or early afternoon I would've gone warmer on temps, but will gamble and go cold. I think they have a good shot at getting a little precip but not much.

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34/24/15/0.02

 

I think they'll actually be on the north end of the precip shield, but also north of the weak frontal boundary (as opposed to south, as the models suggest). Hence the low precip but low high.

 

Clouds move in not too long after 06z, and the temperatures are already warmer than modeled, so I went slightly on the warmer end of guidance for the low (turns out right at national consensus, though).

 

Based on analogs and lower atmosphere potential, I think my 15kt wind is my most confident variable tomorrow.

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