OHweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What were the actual wind values for first three days? My high/low scores will keep me deep into national con., but I'm worry the correct winds will hurt me pretty good :\ Day 1: 5 knots Day 2: 7 knots Day 3: 8 knots So that would be 2.5 less error points for me if they updated those which would put me above the consensus after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What were the actual wind values for first three days? My high/low scores will keep me deep into national con., but I'm worry the correct winds will hurt me pretty good :\ Day1: 5kts, Day2: 7kts, and Day3: 8kts Somehow it managed to drop to -24 as of 19z so my day should be salvaged. Edit: Looks like OHweather beat me to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 -7F already...they should get to 0F at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Day 1: 5 knots Day 2: 7 knots Day 3: 8 knots So that would be 2.5 less error points for me if they updated those which would put me above the consensus after today. Thanks! Can I have the link to that so I don't have to ask in future? EDIT: Look like I got 1.5 more error points first three days. That's going to cut it close with the consensus :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well it looks like the finally updated the winds so after 4 days I'm somehow sitting in 11th....we'll see how long that lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 169th after the wind updates, but I'm still above national consensus at -0.61 so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I actually snuck above the consensus once the winds were updated To find the winds, go here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pafg Select "Preliminary Monthly Climate Data," select Fairbanks, select most recent, click go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I actually snuck above the consensus once the winds were updated To find the winds, go here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pafg Select "Preliminary Monthly Climate Data," select Fairbanks, select most recent, click go. Thank you, sir Good luck to everybody on here trying to make it to national consensus or staying above it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 410th after week 1, if I could somehow stay under 60 points total for both weeks after week 2 I think I could finish pretty good, but in this city anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks like I'm doing the worst of the lot of us (612th overall in PAFA so far). Day 1 certainly didn't help. Was 1190th after day 1 with a +18.77 standard deviation score. Ugh. That's what being too low on the high/low by 9F/8F will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Sitting at 62nd. Somewhat blindly just going warmer than all models. Guess it's sorta working so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sitting at 62nd. Somewhat blindly just going warmer than all models. Guess it's sorta working so far lol Lol, I've sort of followed the NAM's lead it seems to have the best handle on temperatures but even it was not warm enough Day 4. This place downslopes like mad with 2500 ft elevations to the north while they're at 430 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Lol, I've sort of followed the NAM's lead it seems to have the best handle on temperatures but even it was not warm enough Day 4. This place downslopes like mad with 2500 ft elevations to the north while they're at 430 ft. Downslopping off 9 knots unlikely. Their temperature spikes are more due to the inversion weakening than they are due to downslopping winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 2/-16/9/0. Went warm with the low because cloud cover with some light snow and pwats actually get close to 0.2 which is a lot for Fairbanks. So hopefully they don't have a ridiculous drop like usual LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Went 0/-22/7/0 Probably more clouds tonight than last night so didn't go as cold. Some chance to clear out and crater Tuesday evening so went below -20 to cover my backside, because it can drop there quickly with clearing. Went warm for the high...similar 925mb temps as today, slightly cooler 850mb temps (so the inversion may be a tad weaker), and the models show pockets of lower mid-level RH moving over AFA at times which may mean some sun like today. Given a likely warmer start IMO went a bit warmer than today but I am a bit uncertain. NAM MET has been doing well so I'm not upset about matching that on the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 -2/-27/7/0 Man I'm going to get killed if the low doesn't drop...I'm shocked on how warm consensus is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 0/-18/8/0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 1/-23/8/0 A few opportunities to drop. Hopefully they manage at least one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The low temperature is only -9 so far? *facepalm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 My forecasted low is so bad lol....That's what I get for not paying attention to clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Now I need to sweat the 0z to 6z period for nothing too low. Just -16 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Now I need to sweat the 0z to 6z period for nothing too low. Just -16 please. -23... please please please -23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Already 1F had 7F originally before chickening out to 3F. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Already 1F had 7F originally before chickening out to 3F. Damn. 3F will be closer than 7F it looks like. Fingers crossed at least. It's partly cloudy there now, let's see if those holes in the clouds can persist into this evening. Edit: Nope, it's 4F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Umm... I think I might have been better off with climatology today, even WITH the 10 point penalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 SoB, this city is infuriating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 -2/-29/9/0. I'm going with whatever happened yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 -2/-29/6/0 At the risk of forecasting my way out of the competition The models show a pocket of dry low to mid-level air over AFA for much of the forecasting period and the winds should be pretty light tonight, so I went cold for the low. Debated going colder with the high as the 12z GFS shows a pretty strong low level inversion, but with the potential for decent sun and the ability for this city's temperatures to do whatever they seem to want picked a middle of the road type number for the high. Afternoon 925mb/850mb temps seem similar to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wish I had courage to go with the high of 2 instead of 0 for today, but I'll take it. I'm just thankful I'm in Top 150 this far into Fairbanks. Went with 3/-25/7/0.00 for tomorrow, although I'm pretty nervous about the low :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 -2/-29/6/0 At the risk of forecasting my way out of the competition The models show a pocket of dry low to mid-level air over AFA for much of the forecasting period and the winds should be pretty light tonight, so I went cold for the low. Debated going colder with the high as the 12z GFS shows a pretty strong low level inversion, but with the potential for decent sun and the ability for this city's temperatures to do whatever they seem to want picked a middle of the road type number for the high. Afternoon 925mb/850mb temps seem similar to Monday. You should be ok. I probably should have went lower with the winds but hoping that around midnight tonight they go over into day 6 as well if they pick up tonight like modeled. I do like Monday as an analog day to tomorrow. Hopefully we do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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