OHweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Somehow the wind got up to 6 knots. Not sure when or how. It looks like what's listed as the "max gust" in the climo report is what is listed later in the F6 as the max wind speed (what Wxchallenge is using for wind speed verification in Fairbanks), so I'll go with that for now. Hopefully tomorrow finds a way to pull a few extra knots out of its a** like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Somehow the wind got up to 6 knots. Not sure when or how. It looks like what's listed as the "max gust" in the climo report is what is listed later in the F6 as the max wind speed (what Wxchallenge is using for wind speed verification in Fairbanks), so I'll go with that for now. Hopefully tomorrow finds a way to pull a few extra knots out of its a** like today So on the climo report I'm pretty sure the max gust = peak wind on the CF6 and max sustained = max wind speed on the CF6. So the 7 knots should be the peak wind and we will have to wait till tomorrow for the max sustained wind speed. Although given the light winds the peak gust will probably be close, if not the same as the max sustained wind. I hope this makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 -15/-28/6/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So on the climo report I'm pretty sure the max gust = peak wind on the CF6 and max sustained = max wind speed on the CF6. So the 7 knots should be the peak wind and we will have to wait till tomorrow for the max sustained wind speed. Although given the light winds the peak gust will probably be close, if not the same as the max sustained wind. I hope this makes sense. I see what you're saying. So the max sustained was 6MPH/5 knots yesterday. Wxchallenge hasn't put that value in yet for day 1's verifying numbers, so hopefully they do at some point. Looks like my day 2 high of -15 will be in trouble by a couple of degrees, but the low will save me a bit...if the winds somehow get to 8 knots later tonight that would also really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 -10/-24/10/0 for Thursday The temperatures really leveled off and actually came up a bit last night when the thicker cloud cover moved in, so went a bit warm on tonight's low. 925mb temps warm a few degrees for tomorrow over today so with similar cloud cover, winds, and start decided to go a bit warmer than today which will probably end up being -12 or -13. Gradient intensifies tomorrow so hope they can get some winds into the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 -10/-23/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 -8/-23/12/0. I actually feel very good about my forecast beating nat con in every category for day 3, but I still dislike this city very much so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And if anyone wants the verification, since I can't post it on amwx, just email me at [email protected]. I'm probably not using it that well maybe it will work for some others, I don't know, but if you want it you can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dammit, temps aren't supposed to crater with solid overcast and no cold air advection in the evening. I'd be shocked if I pull off a negative standardized score for this city. -24 as of 4z which by my math is 7:00PM ADST. Only consolation as this risks messing with my day 2 score is that the wind may or may not pick up by 6z and keep the low from messing up day 3 too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dammit, temps aren't supposed to crater with solid overcast and no cold air advection in the evening. I'd be shocked if I pull off a negative standardized score for this city. -24 as of 4z which by my math is 7:00PM ADST. Only consolation as this risks messing with my day 2 score is that the wind may or may not pick up by 6z and keep the low from messing up day 3 too much. This is torture. How can anyone forecast for this place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The low dropping hard is making me smile, especially with -27 low forecast for Day 2 Another solid day today with the ranking around 220th for the city, which will go all the way up to 100th or so with what just happened. Day 3: -11/-27/6/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is torture. How can anyone forecast for this place?Day 1 kind of behaved but today really isn't. The only plus side is we aren't quite halfway through yet (I think tomorrow's low will end up cold, just a sneaky feeling). Would be nice to do better than the consensus at the end of the day but I'm not hopeful for much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can't believe I'm only at -1.34 and I'm in top 120 for the city. This city sucks for everybody, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can't believe I'm only at -1.34 and I'm in top 120 for the city. This city sucks for everybody, lol. For GRR I finished at -1.65 and in the 50's, that was another rough one for everyone. Pending the winds and whatever temps do between now and 6z I'm at +4.32 for Fairbanks. But it is still early enough to recover as long as I don't tank any more days, because I'd imagine a lot of people will struggle the next 6 days as well. I'd really like HOU to be my second drop (+1.65) and would like to ideally have a negative standardized score for all but one of my non-dropped cities (my CON score of +1.25 will stick regardless, don't want any others worse). So those are my goals at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 For GRR I finished at -1.65 and in the 50's, that was another rough one for everyone. Pending the winds and whatever temps do between now and 6z I'm at +4.32 for Fairbanks. But it is still early enough to recover as long as I don't tank any more days, because I'd imagine a lot of people will struggle the next 6 days as well. I'd really like HOU to be my second drop (+1.65) and would like to ideally have a negative standardized score for all but one of my non-dropped cities (my CON score of +1.25 will stick regardless, don't want any others worse). So those are my goals at this point I was in top 20 for GRR until I failed badly on last two days to go 0.35. I actually never had a score below 0.00 until Atlanta last week so I still got a lot of work to do catching up in the yearly standing, but I'm up to 0.37 for the year with WC now. It took me awhile to figure out what I'm doing, but I think I could have a really good spring semester Good luck trying to predict this mess of city... it's too bad Levi Cowan couldn't help few of us with tips in his own city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This city is horrible. Thankfully the temp dropped to -24 after 6z so today isn't lost quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 They still haven't put in the F6 value for day1's wind. I hope they start doing that because day 2 got up to 7 knots and that helps me. Day 3 started off half decently with the temperature dramatically warming around 6z and saving people who went warmer on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fairbanks is trolling us hard... and I'm saying this as someone in top 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Went with...-4/-21/10/0 Not that it really matters for me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Went -7/-24/12/0 Didn't see much reason to expect anything different than today, maybe a bit more wind in the evening. Am a bit unsure on the low, I can't predict what temps do overnight there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 -1/-26/10/0 Went all out for the high tomorrow, I think we see some sun and 850's warm a few degrees so I don't see why they cant get warmer than today. As for the low, I have no idea... if we get some clearing and winds go calm for a couple hours there could be a huge drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 -7/-22/7/0.00. Wanted to go higher, but it was a risky move with the clouds in NWS's forecast so I chose to not go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 -9/-26/8/0 Low balled the low with fairly low winds and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 -4/-23/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Im pretty much only invested enough to try to get past nat con by the end of week 2 even though I believe this place is not worth forecasting for anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Definitely a weird place to try to forecast. Temps not budging right now, sitting at -7. Definitely nervous about the -26F I forecast for a low for Day 4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well at this rate the temp will be above 0 in a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow... it's 06z and the temperature is already higher than my forecast high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I have no idea or explanation for what temps do at AFA when the sun is down They dropped last night with clouds and calm winds. Now with clouds and light winds they keep going up. If Wxchallenge put in the proper day 1-2 wind values (and if Day 3 got close to 10 knots) I'd actually only be a couple points worse than the nat con and could pass the consensus today only because I went "warm" with the high (which will now bust low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What were the actual wind values for first three days? My high/low scores will keep me deep into national con., but I'm worry the correct winds will hurt me pretty good :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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