H2Otown_WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Why the hell is it still 34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Dam this day didnt go as planned. Probably day 8 will be 51/28/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Dam this day didnt go as planned. Probably day 8 will be 51/28/9/0 Somehow the winds got up to 11 knots. I don't know how or when. Damn So I'll probably finish 72nd for the city with a -4.33 standardized score. Could be worse but I certainly blew any chance I had yesterday. I'm sure Anchorage will be just as fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That 11 knots saved my day from being worse. 22nd overall with a score of -5.57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well if the climo report holds I'll finish 3rd in category 3 and 13th overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like I may be bringing up the Americanwx rear for this city Even though I ranked higher for GRR this is definitely my best city so far. I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to Alaskan forecasting so we'll see how that goes. Maybe I'll look into it this weekend before I throw a forecast up Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Look like Atlanta will be my best score ever 6 cities into my WxChallenge career. Finished #3 at UNCA as well as 13th among Category 4 folks and 108th in nation with the score of -3.63. Appears that I'll be around 330th for the year, which is awesome considering my first three cities didn't go that well as a rookie. Alaska should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like I took 33rd overall with a -5.11 for the city. Onto Fairbanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Next up PAFA (Fairbanks, AK). This is going to be a tough city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, Fairbanks is going to be a screwed up place to forecast. 1.) The winds will be from 9z to 9z. 2.) The precipitation sensor doesn't work on the ASOS, so hopefully the NWS will be doing human measurements every time it snows or even rain perhaps. 3.) Week 1 looks to start off way below average. Let's have some fun shall we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Long nights, calm winds and an endless inversion....This is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was wondering about winds. I looked at one of their climo reports, and it only has wind gusts, not max wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was wondering about winds. I looked at one of their climo reports, and it only has wind gusts, not max wind. The CF6 shows the max wind but as stated above its from 9z-9z. I would assume the WxChallenge would use the hourly metar readings instead of the climo in this case. Anyone know how this will work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ooh, I love it. First forecast day, and the (older) MOS forecasts are... NAM: -5/-27 GFS: -13/-48 That's right, folks, a 21°F difference in the MOS forecasts on the low temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They did -29 yesterday morning and -33 this morning, with a high of -4 on Saturday and -10 yesterday. My first thought is to lean slightly closer to the NAM MOS for the low and GFS MOS for the high. I didn't look at much MOS data over the weekend although the raw GFS seemed to run a bit too cold for the overnight lows. The set up is essentially the same as it's been with mostly clear skies, light north-east winds and a never ending inversion. Mid level temps look maybe a tad warmer for tomorrow than they are today but under such a stout inversion with a weak sun angle and no real air advection in that valley I can't imagine warmer 850mb temps will do much for us tomorrow, but I may be wrong...but either way I may go pretty close to what they've been doing the past few days. They somehow "clocked" a 6 knot wind yesterday despite either being calm or at 3 knots or less on every hour yesterday. Edit: Evidently they did jump up to 5 knots on the hourly ob just before midnight last night. I'm thinking 5-6 knots will just about do it for Tuesday to (if that even) but I've been burned going too low on winds many times before. At some point today I'll have to look deeper and think this out. I'm sure we'll get a WIDE spread on both the high/low tomorrow and I'm sure we'll get a number of wind entries ranging from 2 to 10 knots. Edit: Although after 15 minutes of thought I'm trying to talk me into somewhat colder lows tonight. Ugh. 7 hours to pick a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They did -29 yesterday morning and -33 this morning, with a high of -4 on Saturday and -10 yesterday. My first thought is to lean slightly closer to the NAM MOS for the low and GFS MOS for the high. I didn't look at much MOS data over the weekend although the raw GFS seemed to run a bit too cold for the overnight lows. The set up is essentially the same as it's been with mostly clear skies, light north-east winds and a never ending inversion. Mid level temps look maybe a tad warmer for tomorrow than they are today but under such a stout inversion with a weak sun angle and no real air advection in that valley I can't imagine warmer 850mb temps will do much for us tomorrow, but I may be wrong...but either way I may go pretty close to what they've been doing the past few days. They somehow "clocked" a 6 knot wind yesterday despite either being calm or at 3 knots or less on every hour yesterday. Edit: Evidently they did jump up to 5 knots on the hourly ob just before midnight last night. I'm thinking 5-6 knots will just about do it for Tuesday to (if that even) but I've been burned going too low on winds many times before. At some point today I'll have to look deeper and think this out. I'm sure we'll get a WIDE spread on both the high/low tomorrow and I'm sure we'll get a number of wind entries ranging from 2 to 10 knots. Edit: Although after 15 minutes of thought I'm trying to talk me into somewhat colder lows tonight. Ugh. 7 hours to pick a number. I have a mos verification done for Fairbanks if you want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -12/-37/4/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a bad SD for the high, although the SD for the low is more what I expect for this city..LOL I went -12/-34/4/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -19/-38/4/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have a mos verification done for Fairbanks if you want it. I should have checked this thread before 7:01PM eastern time. If you PM it to me/post it or whatever you'd like I'd certainly appreciate it. For tomorrow went -12/-35/4/0 The NAM MOS is dramatically cooler than it was last night (now -32 for tonight's low) and the GFS MOS is holding serve with colder than -40. Some cons for a really cold night tonight is temperatures and dew points got a bit "warmer" today than yesterday and right now the NAM MOS is much more representative. There may also be some high clouds late tonight. On the plus side, the low level winds will be much lighter than light night so I don't think we'll see random gusts come into the valley and warm things up 2 or 3 times like they saw last night. I think tomorrow will be colder than today with more clouds and a similarly cold start. Was uncomfortable going 4 knots on the winds but if there's a day to do it it will be tomorrow in Fairbanks. As I look, I see that my forecast happens to match the consensus forecast perfectly. That's not what I wanted. Grr. The only plus side to that is if I somehow nail tomorrow (doubtful) that everyone will either have a 0 or positive score for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I should have checked this thread before 7:01PM eastern time. If you PM it to me/post it or whatever you'd like I'd certainly appreciate it. For tomorrow went -12/-35/4/0 The NAM MOS is dramatically cooler than it was last night (now -32 for tonight's low) and the GFS MOS is holding serve with colder than -40. Some cons for a really cold night tonight is temperatures and dew points got a bit "warmer" today than yesterday and right now the NAM MOS is much more representative. There may also be some high clouds late tonight. On the plus side, the low level winds will be much lighter than light night so I don't think we'll see random gusts come into the valley and warm things up 2 or 3 times like they saw last night. I think tomorrow will be colder than today with more clouds and a similarly cold start. Was uncomfortable going 4 knots on the winds but if there's a day to do it it will be tomorrow in Fairbanks. As I look, I see that my forecast happens to match the consensus forecast perfectly. That's not what I wanted. Grr. The only plus side to that is if I somehow nail tomorrow (doubtful) that everyone will either have a 0 or positive score for a day. Sadly, I am not allowed to post an excel spreadsheet on the thread, but I'll try through a pm. Edit: And it seems there is no attach file option in personal messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -8/-28/6/0.00. Something tells me I'll fail badly on this city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -9/-35/5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like clouds will probably keep things above -30 this morning. Should've given them more weight. Now I'm glad I'm at the consensus because when I rack up like 7 error points today my score is guaranteed to not be worse than 0! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 7 error on the low ugh. This will be my drop even if i finish in the top 100 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -19/-38/4/0 Well, so much for Fairbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 -13/-25/5/0 for Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 -14/-26/6/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Went -15/-25/8/0 for Wednesday With clouds all night tonight don't really expect them to bottom out. MET did better last night and is more representative, like yesterday, of the temperature/dew point at 0z than MAV so went with that. Temperatures will start a couple of degrees colder this evening but they won't have over half a night of good radiational cooling conditions, so felt good going 5 degrees warmer than this morning. For tomorrow, the cloud cover should be thicker/lower than today and low-mid level temps cool considerably. So, I really don't buy the 15+ degree diurnal spread that both the MET/MAV are advertising. With a tightening pressure gradient am crossing my fingers for an increase in wind late in the period. Since the wind is technically 9z to 9z and the GFS shows the mid-level winds picking up some after 6z banked on that occurring late in the period. They may get close to -25 by 6z Wednesday evening but am hoping with continued cloud cover they won't quite do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Really wish the low had stayed at -28, but it dropped again to -30 before getting warm. Day 1 was a success, though. -13/-27/4/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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