OHweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Today's gamble on the high will probably move me up close to 100 spots, despite me having no clue on the winds. For tomorrow, 56/33/20/0.30 I can see the high getting to 60 if the CAD erodes quickly enough but it will be close so I went a bit lower. Am a degree above consensus which makes me happy. I can see temps getting below freezing, but the winds will stay up so didn't go all out. Am 2 degrees below the consensus on the low which is where I'd rather be. Feel pretty confident in pretty good winds, didn't want to go really high and get burned. 20 knots is 3 above the consensus which also makes me happy. With such a strong LLJ am sort of surprised the consensus on precip is so low. We'll see if they can get 0.30". Overall more conservative than yesterday but I still like my chance to beat the consensus in at least 3 of the categories with the question mark being precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, gambling on the low might have been a mistake after looking at consensus, but I'm pretty happy to see many went low on precip so I can see myself making up on that. I'm also happy 56 is little above consensus as well so I can make up from there. I'm rooting on the low to go 32 at the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 62/33/20/0.22 Well... now I know never to underestimate CAD, even in cases of pre-frontal "warm air advection". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 i gambled and went with 0.45" of precip. That worked out well! Based on HRRR runs and upstream rain totals in that band, I'm glad I didn't get screwed. Now the high temp on the other hand....Different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm so used to the warm air ahead of a cold front this time of year over performing. Yikes. Since I'll be very close on wind and am on the right side of the consensus for precip, if my low works out I can still move up to around 20th for the city overall. Maybe throw in an intra hour high while we're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm so used to the warm air ahead of a cold front this time of year over performing. Yikes. Since I'll be very close on wind and am on the right side of the consensus for precip, if my low works out I can still move up to around 20th for the city overall. Maybe throw in an intra hour high while we're at it. I'll take 33 and 22 thank you very much . Past two days on the high have killed me ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Only managed 20kts I see from the climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Only managed 20kts I see from the climo. I hold on to hope that the model forecast winds on the nam and gfs come to fruition from now til 3z. Supposedly the winds are suppose to be stronger, but that will probably fail too :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Went 48/27/17/0 Looked at soundings on the GFS/NAM when they were trying to spit out light QPF over ATL tomorrow evening and the low levels looked much too dry. Am hoping the winds don't die down too quickly tonight so we can snag 17 knots just after 6z. If the sun does indeed come out in the morning and we can mix half decently 50 or so is possible but wasn't too confident so went a bit lower than that for my high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 43/27/18/0 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 45/28/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 44/28/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Had the day off of school, brain thought it was a weekend. Guidanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 44/29/18/0.03. Just took a shot at some extra points with precip. Wasn't really anything but a small play for a point. Feel confident though about the rest. The low could squeek to 28 but we'll see. In my opinion 28 is the lowest possible low tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 45/28/18/0.00 Hopefully I do well today to make up lost points that that fail of a forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 21 kts on the latest climo report... 48/27/17/0 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 21 kts on the latest climo report... 48/27/17/0 for tomorrow. Unless you're looking somewhere I'm not, the 4PM climo report (with 20 knot winds) is still up. However, it has gotten windy this evening so I think they probably did creep up to 21 or 22 knots. We'll see. On the flip side, I think we completely match for tomorrow, so good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That drop to 33 degrees at 5z completely saved my day from a complete disaster. I was below national consensus for Atlanta until that 2 degrees drop from 35 to 33 just now got be back to -1.00. Hopefully winds are still around at 6z... edit: 35 to 31 in last two hours got me from losing 150 spots to gaining 90 spots for the day. Gamble paid off for Day #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 49/26/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 50/28/9/0 Remember the last time it got calm in Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 50/28/9/0 Remember the last time it got calm in Atlanta? Yea, 3F difference between the intra hour low and top of the hour low hehe, but I think you may be referring to the high, but it will be cloudy again like today but not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 55/28/8/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Interesting to see a lot of people siding with the USL. The Euro only had a high of 50F for tomorrow after having a high of 45F for today. Look how that worked out. I see more cloud cover tomorrow, where the USL has a lack thereof which explains its forecast of 54 and 55 on its earlier run. I see that failing just like its 49 and 48 forecast for today did. CLOUDS FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 51/27/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't care for the USL on this city except for winds obviously. Couple WRF runs I ran today were showing highs right at 50, and cloud cover non-existent over ATL - staying just south, and then north of the city. Anyways, went with 50/28/8/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Went 53/28/8/0 Got burned on today's high but can still finish in the 40's for the city and top at Ohio U by a wide margin if tomorrow goes well. Second city in a row I've forecasted my way out of contention on day 7 or 8... I really should stop doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Interesting to see a lot of people siding with the USL. The Euro only had a high of 50F for tomorrow after having a high of 45F for today. Look how that worked out. I see more cloud cover tomorrow, where the USL has a lack thereof which explains its forecast of 54 and 55 on its earlier run. I see that failing just like its 49 and 48 forecast for today did. CLOUDS FTW! The analogous days I used yesterday suggested 42-43F (hence my 43F forecast). The analagous days I used today suggested 53-56. Two things... first, it may be decently cloudy tomorrow (and I'm not even sold on that, I think it'll be far less cloudy tomorrow), but they're high clouds only. And I don't think they're as thick tomorrow. And when the clouds did briefly break, the temperature shot up big time. All they need is a few hours of clearing tomorrow. Secondly, much of the day today featured decent northwesterly winds. Tomorrow will be a lot calmer. And the northerly winds today were sourced in an area that was under cloudcover. Tomorrow's (lighter) northerlies will be coming from an area that's likely to be sunnier. So today's "cold advection" will be a nonfactor tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The analogous days I used yesterday suggested 42-43F (hence my 43F forecast). The analagous days I used today suggested 53-56. Two things... first, it may be decently cloudy tomorrow (and I'm not even sold on that, I think it'll be far less cloudy tomorrow), but they're high clouds only. And I don't think they're as thick tomorrow. And when the clouds did briefly break, the temperature shot up big time. All they need is a few hours of clearing tomorrow. Secondly, much of the day today featured decent northwesterly winds. Tomorrow will be a lot calmer. And the northerly winds today were sourced in an area that was under cloudcover. Tomorrow's (lighter) northerlies will be coming from an area that's likely to be sunnier. So today's "cold advection" will be a nonfactor tomorrow. Remember that 58F last week, well that was with 900mb temps near 10C. Tomorrow only 3C at 900mb. I have a hard time finding the temperature getting above 51F tomorrow even with more sun than today. I even did some air parcel analysis with HYSPLIT. I could only get 49F for my calculation, so I'm a bit skeptical about 51 or better tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 49/27/7/0.00 Current Top 3 UNCA forecasters for Atlanta all had 52, 52, and 55 for tomorrow which surprised me. I had an advantage of Euro via WeatherBell so I went 49 instead of higher thanks to that. I also didn't see anything above 51 on Albany and Iowa State pages. As for the low, it was obvious that it'll drop hard tonight and ahead of the forecast so that's how I got 27. Winds are questionable tomorrow so I went with USL's forecast (which is useful for winds only). No precip. If I do well tomorrow, I'll crack into Top 3 at UNCA for the city which is insanely good for a freshman. Hopefully I'll get between 300th and 350th for the year after this one. EDIT: Like Mallow mentioned, actually applying meteorology might be the factor for tomorrow and I might get burned :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Remember that 58F last week, well that was with 900mb temps near 10C. Tomorrow only 3C at 900mb. I have a hard time finding the temperature getting above 51F tomorrow even with more sun than today. I even did some air parcel analysis with HYSPLIT. I could only get 49F for my calculation, so I'm a bit skeptical about 51 or better tomorrow. Hey, maybe you're right. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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