WxBlue Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't see thread for WxChallenge until now. I guess I'm doing good with first two days, but I looked at the wrong time frame for the low temperature so that's going to be my undoing sadly :\ Hopefully it doesn't get too low, but it doesn't look promising. 38/19/8/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I missed the first days forecast. And I am determined to catch someone who doesn't miss a forecast. Gunna go balls to the wall tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I missed the first days forecast. And I am determined to catch someone who doesn't miss a forecast. Gunna go balls to the wall tomorrow. lol I might as well have missed the first day's forecast... was worse than 1100th place! Assuming today ends up 40/13/9/0 (probably will), I'm up to the 200s. If by some miracle we get 41/13/9/0 (or better yet, 41/13/10/0), I'm up to almost 100th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ouch for my 37 on the high today. 50/22/7/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ouch for my 37 on the high today. 50/22/7/0 Almost identical. 50/22/6/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 50/21/6/0 Originally had 53, but got chicken. May come back to bite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 51/19/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 53/21/6/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Going all out. 54/15/5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 53/23/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 51/19/9/0. Had to forecast early due to work and tried bumping my low up last second off my phone but I just missed the deadline. So 19 it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Whatever Guidance has. My first of (probably) many misses with next week being so busy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 49/20/5/0. Hopefully I stay in top 200 for the city and improve my overall ranking down into 400s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 53/23/9/0 Ugh... really? 21F? A 3F drop between hours? That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Darn it. Mixing from 900 mb on NAM BUFKIT yielded 56F but I chickened out with the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Currently 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Damn. I thought my 54 was hot. Guess not. Suppose I underestimated the degree of mixing....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Maybe some UHI going on there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Maybe some UHI going on there as well. Concrete jungle 2x2 mi with limited mixing will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow. Well, today dropped me 24 spots to 138th. Still a standardized score of -2.24 for the city which is top at Ohio University, so I'll take it considering I think I missed some things that I shouldn't have this week (like today's warm up). We'll see what next week brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 47/39/13/0.09 Decided to gamble for Tuesday because, well, why not? Believe that the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro are having convective feedback issues and placing the low pressure over the TN/OH Valleys tomorrow afternoon/evening too far SE. The higher-resolution guidance including the NAM make more sense with a low pressure that's farther NW. Thus, the low pressure doesn't move east as quickly and shift the winds to Atlanta to a more southerly direction, allowing a continued E-NE flow to continue under a strong low level inversion through tomorrow evening. It'll be very close. Because of this I went low on winds, despite 925mb winds really picking up tomorrow evening. I think that at some point after 6z ATL will see a shift in winds, an increase in winds and a decent jump in temperature...but I'm gambling and saying it won't happen until after 0z. Went a bit low on the low tonight so we'll see if clouds can hold off until after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Very, very tough forecast on the high tomorrow. How strongly does the CAD hang in there? How quickly do their winds shift around to the SE? How quickly does the cold front approach? I went with a warmer... 54/38/16/0.14 ... but it wouldn't shock me at all if it was 46F or 60F for a 06z high tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Missed the deadline by 3 seconds only because Firefox seized up on me! So Pissed. Had 47/39/13/0.12, but got guidanced instead. Guidance isn't too bad today with 51/41/11/.10, actually pretty close to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Decided to go with a high I thought would be national consensus and right in the middle and felt low will drop into the upper 30s by 6z tonight. So my forecast came out to be 51/38/18/0.08. Don't know really about the winds. Stochastics for both the NAM and GFS were 18 so figured with strong low level easterlies in the morning that this value made some sense. Overall went pretty conservative with my forecast other than the low tonight which I feel will verify in the upper 30s around 6z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 53/38/13/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Could have gambled little more on the low, but decided to not do so and it look like it was a mistake with temperature already down to 40 at 10 pm. Went right in the middle with the high and precip. Wind might be too low, but oh well... Forecast: 51/40/13/0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Another tough forcast day 53/30/22/0.17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Tough, tough forecast for tomorrow involving all categories. High temperature for tomorrow is the biggest question I had so I went right in middle, but low temperature and precip were tough too. Knowing rain are usually in heavy bursts in Southeast, I went slightly more on the precip. I also gambled on GFS with the cold front going into the area quicker. Overall, I had 56/30/18/0.28. I'm not a gambling person, but I want to take advantage of the day with possible big error points. Of course I could lose big time as well if I whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 62/33/20/0.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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