Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

WxChallenge 2013-14


Recommended Posts

Didn't see thread for WxChallenge until now. I guess I'm doing good with first two days, but I looked at the wrong time frame for the low temperature so that's going to be my undoing sadly :\ Hopefully it doesn't get too low, but it doesn't look promising.

 

38/19/8/0.00

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I missed the first days forecast.  And I am determined to catch someone who doesn't miss a forecast.  Gunna go balls to the wall tomorrow. lol

 

I might as well have missed the first day's forecast... was worse than 1100th place! :P

 

Assuming today ends up 40/13/9/0 (probably will), I'm up to the 200s. If by some miracle we get 41/13/9/0 (or better yet, 41/13/10/0), I'm up to almost 100th place. :o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47/39/13/0.09

 

Decided to gamble for Tuesday because, well, why not? Believe that the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro are having convective feedback issues and placing the low pressure over the TN/OH Valleys tomorrow afternoon/evening too far SE. The higher-resolution guidance including the NAM make more sense with a low pressure that's farther NW. Thus, the low pressure doesn't move east as quickly and shift the winds to Atlanta to a more southerly direction, allowing a continued E-NE flow to continue under a strong low level inversion through tomorrow evening. It'll be very close. Because of this I went low on winds, despite 925mb winds really picking up tomorrow evening. I think that at some point after 6z ATL will see a shift in winds, an increase in winds and a decent jump in temperature...but I'm gambling and saying it won't happen until after 0z. Went a bit low on the low tonight so we'll see if clouds can hold off until after 6z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very, very tough forecast on the high tomorrow. How strongly does the CAD hang in there? How quickly do their winds shift around to the SE? How quickly does the cold front approach?

 

I went with a warmer...

54/38/16/0.14

 

... but it wouldn't shock me at all if it was 46F or 60F for a 06z high tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Decided to go with a high I thought would be national consensus and right in the middle and felt low will drop into the upper 30s by 6z tonight. So my forecast came out to be 51/38/18/0.08. Don't know really about the winds. Stochastics for both the NAM and GFS were 18 so figured with strong low level easterlies in the morning that this value made some sense. Overall went pretty conservative with my forecast other than the low tonight which I feel will verify in the upper 30s around 6z tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could have gambled little more on the low, but decided to not do so and it look like it was a mistake with temperature already down to 40 at 10 pm. Went right in the middle with the high and precip. Wind might be too low, but oh well...

 

Forecast: 51/40/13/0.10

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough, tough forecast for tomorrow involving all categories. High temperature for tomorrow is the biggest question I had so I went right in middle, but low temperature and precip were tough too. Knowing rain are usually in heavy bursts in Southeast, I went slightly more on the precip. I also gambled on GFS with the cold front going into the area quicker.

 

Overall, I had 56/30/18/0.28. I'm not a gambling person, but I want to take advantage of the day with possible big error points. Of course I could lose big time as well if I whiffed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...