phil882 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well this is going to be a tricky forecast right out of the gate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 30/21/13/0.12" Clouds move in and exit a bit faster than modeled by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thank you to the 80 or so people that put down .50", .75" or 1+". My Std. dev is grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 30/23/12/0.12. I think the clouds and the accumulated precipitation will limit radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 31/21/15/0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Went 34/25/17/0.15" Models appear to be too quick in bringing in the cold air this evening...I see them struggling to dip much below 30 tonight. The north winds slacken by morning and there should be a few hours before any precip moves in so I have them warming up a few degrees in the morning. After the precip moves out tomorrow evening I don't think skies will clear particularly fast and there won't be any strong CAA or anything of that nature, so I went much closer to the NAM MOS for the low which should be a 6z low tomorrow night. Winds picked up for the 0z ob but will probably peak a bit before 6z, so we'll see how that goes. Precip is a crap shoot. On one hand just about all global models show Atlanta near the northern edge of but solidly in the precip shield tomorrow...but it's close. The NAM is wetter than the Euro but close to the GFS with around 0.20" of QPF for ATL. It'll be a sharp cutoff near or just north of ATL and the NAM suggests the best lift occurring just south of Atlanta, so I went a bit drier than the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 34/19/19/0.07" Not looking very cold tonight, but tomorrow the temps should drop. I wasn't sold on the higher precip numbers with the low forecasted dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 36/24/13/.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 31/24/14/0.19" The trend* the last few days (and especially today) has been to bring the precip shield more and more NW. So higher QPF than many, and not as low on the evening low. *Although it appears the 0z NAM shifted back south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Went with 33/27/18/0.10"... I think my 33F is already shot (won't get up that high in the afternoon), and my 27F seems to be in danger. Didn't think they'd be this cold already. I do think they'll have a harder time falling tomorrow evening, still, but they'll probably see a morning low below my forecast low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 High is toast, low is in trouble. It's good to be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Busted for winds, everything else looks ok for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Radar looks good, over .10" looks likely and wouldn't be surprised if its closer to 0.20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dammit. Can't believe I forgot. Guess I will be dropping this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I guess the busted low and soon to come precip bust mean they're getting more snow than I thought. At least there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Already 0.16". My 0.19" is gonna bust low. Damn, never underestimate the northwest extent of precip with an open gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And the precip is already wrong. Should be 0.19" as of 23z, not 0.17". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Climo has 29 for the high and 18kts for the wind today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 31/15/15/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 29/16/16/0 Had 31 but didn't feel comfortable with high clouds hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Had an awful, awful day today. Hopefully that changes tomorrow. At least I nailed the wind. 30/14/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 28/14/14/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Went 29/12/16/0 Feel good about the winds and precip. As for the low, temperatures have been slowly falling all afternoon, and with continued NNW winds and mid level temperatures cooling several more degrees tonight...to go along with some clearing late...I think they can drop another 9 degrees overnight. It's a gamble, but I'm pretty sure we'll at least get colder than the consensus low of 17. With some clouds, a continued NNW flow and some snow cover I undercut guidance for the high as well, which I don't think is as big of a gamble as the low. With 850mb temps struggling to warm above -8 to -10C, a NNW flow and snow cover I personally doubt they get to freezing and it could stay in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nailing the low really really helped me today. A total of 9 people also had 12 for a low and 6 people went colder than 12...everyone else went warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 19kts... impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 39/16/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Went 37/14/11/0 Wasn't sure what to do with the low...they should be in a favorable environment for radiational cooling most of the night with snow cover to boot, so went with the colder GFS MOS...dews are sitting at 2 right now which is much lower than what the NAM suggests. But it is Atlanta and they don't radiate as well as some other places...we'll see. For the high undercut MOS by a few degrees. The models suggest an inversion may be in place most of the day limiting how much mixing can occur...and there will still be some snow on the ground. Went a bit high on winds, they've over-performed everyday so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 37/16/9/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 38/10/9/0 Went extremely ballsy with the low given the temperatures upstream last night and the clearing skies, calm winds tonight on top of the remaining snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 41/14/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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