ma blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 24/4/23/0.03 .. looks like i have the second lowest low temp and one of the highest wind forecasts .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 8 people in the game went with winds of 23 knots or higher. Three of them have identified themselves in here. And a fourth is sitting in class with me right now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 24/4/23/0.03 .. looks like i have the second lowest low temp and one of the highest wind forecasts .. Speaking of the one sitting in class with me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 8 people in the game went with winds of 23 knots or higher. Three of them have identified themselves in here. And a fourth is sitting in class with me right now. lol I'm glad to see Max did, he's been kick @ss pretty much the whole tournament. It could be 30 knots for all I care because I'd be gaining on everyone in the contest from the winds except for him and holding with 7 others, and he's only 1 knot above me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm glad to see Max did, he's been kick @ss pretty much the whole tournament. It could be 30 knots for all I care because I'd be gaining on everyone in the contest from the winds except for him and holding with 7 others, and he's only 1 knot above me. Thanks. Other than two days off by 4 knots, I've been pretty accurate with my wind forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Went with 23/6/20/0.03 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks. Other than two days off by 4 knots, I've been pretty accurate with my wind forecasts. I've been decent with my wind forecasts (generally off by 1-3 knots) and have the lowest error on high temps overall for GRR (15)...so I'm hoping my good high temp forecasting and your overall good forecasting continues tomorrow. Then we'll go from there Friday. The temp is stubborn to fall this evening...still at 12 although I can't imagine that lasting a ton longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feynman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have been lurking this thread for a while and I figured I might as well join in on the discussion. I went with 24/6/20/0 for tomorrow. This is a weird situation for me because I am actually better off if I am wrong and the low ends up being around 10. If it ends up being 6, it doesn't help me in the overall standings because this city will still likely be my worst score, but the other people in the top 10 or 20 who have a low around 6 will improve a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Son of a, it's still 12! I'd be shocked if it hasn't snuck down to 11 between hours but just a few hours ago I wasn't expecting it to still be this "warm." Also, welcome Feynman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Son of a, it's still 12! I'd be shocked if it hasn't snuck down to 11 between hours but just a few hours ago I wasn't expecting it to still be this "warm." Also, welcome Feynman! This stupid lake effect is still going and we have the winds down to 6mph at the surface. If only it would stop we'd plummet pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This stupid lake effect is still going and we have the winds down to 6mph at the surface. If only it would stop we'd plummet pretty quickly. When I made my forecast last evening (and again when I glanced this evening) a lot of the models that are high-resolution enough to have a chance at properly resolving lake effect showed the low between about 0z-4z this evening with the winds going NW and taking the lake effect barely southwest of GRR, before bringing winds around more to the west and actually showing some warming after 4z. The lake effect was just *barely* able to hang over GRR this evening and is more solidly over the airport now, so we'll see how much we can drop before 6z. The models show the lowest inversions and driest airmass over the lake after 6z for a few hours and the clouds over the lake look to be slowly diminishing so there may be a window for better cooling after 6z...we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Whoops, saw the thread and forgot to forecast. Hardest final of the semester was from 6 to 9p tonight, studied all day. Drop city anyway now just became official drop city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Heh, every PWS east of GRR is at 11 degrees or colder, every PWS to the west is 12 degrees or a bit warmer. I *think* it's still snowing at GRR with clouds overhead but barely. Will figure out the low very soon. Edit: 12! This is why I really do love lake effect for many reasons. The climo lists 0.10" of liquid equivalent, the METARs only add up to 0.08", will see if they enter the precip listed in the climo like they did for Tuesday/day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, stayed at 12 all night. I'm done. Went 6 for a low after originally having 9. Terrible decision, and with a bad high today, I'll be lucky to finish in top 400 now. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The past few days have killed me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's warmer in Milwaukee than in Grand Rapids...although GRR is finally warming up. Winds have also disappointed thus far...although the lake effect over the lake looks to be diminishing some so hopefully they can warm and get windier at some point this evening. Precip will be higher than I had but that's not my big concern today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Forecasting for this town is difficult. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The winds took myself and a few more of us back behind the woodshed today...my "best case" hypothetical for today from this point forward...25/10/17/0.06" drops me to 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My obligatory "I'll probably finish in the top 50, but today probably made it impossible to finish 1st" day 8 forecast goes like this: 26/21/15/0.09 GFS/NAM suggesting an enhanced area of snow possibly along a bit of a mid-level theta-e gradient near GRR tomorrow evening so went aggressive with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Went with 28/18/17/0. Feel low level dry air will be too much to over come with ene flow advecting in colder and drier air from central areas of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feynman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I went with 28/20/16/0.03. Only spent a few minutes on it as this will be my drop city. If consensus does well tomorrow, I could be as high as 2nd overall in the cumulative rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 24/20/16/0.04 I dislike this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Running some hypotheticals, it's not impossible that the winner in GRR will have a score in the high -2's for the city! Some did better than others but everyone struggled at least somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well GRR snuck up to 25 this evening (at least), so it's now "mathematically possible" for me to win GRR with a perfect day 8 forecast or a close forecast if certain variables break certain ways. What essentially cannot happen is a high of 27 or warmer (I may be able to get away with 27 if everything else is perfect, I don't feel like crunching the numbers with 17 knots for Day 7's wind). Edit: Edit 2: If the high is 27-28, the wind 15+ knots AND the precip 0.09"+ I'd still get a trophy for being the top 1 or 2 cat 3 forecaster. At this point I just want a damn trophy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And it snuck up to 28F lol whoops sorry bro. It's actually interesting because 12z to 18z showed no hints at 28F so I wonder if the 12z metar just missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And it snuck up to 28F lol whoops sorry bro. It's actually interesting because 12z to 18z showed no hints at 28F so I wonder if the 12z metar just missed it. I'm curious to see when it happened. Oh well, close but no ciggy. Maybe Atlanta after break. Edit: At 11:53am it was 25. At 12:53PM it was 26. But evidently, at 12:28PM it was 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm curious to see when it happened. Oh well, close but no ciggy. Maybe Atlanta after break. Edit: At 11:53am it was 25. At 12:53PM it was 26. But evidently, at 12:28PM it was 28 Weird but true, at least Atlanta will be more conventional forecasting than over here. This place sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm curious to see when it happened. Oh well, close but no ciggy. Maybe Atlanta after break. Edit: At 11:53am it was 25. At 12:53PM it was 26. But evidently, at 12:28PM it was 28 We tied for least error on the high temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter storm watch for parts of the first two forecast periods in Atlanta. Starting off with fun after the break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whaaa... Almost forgot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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