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WxChallenge 2013-14

Quincy

By Quincy,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

26mph = 23kts.

 

It shows 0.6" of snow, interestingly. If that's right, 0.02" sounds reasonable (given the high LES ratios). Is it possible that while we all thought the 0.03" was low, the NWS's "by hand" measurement actually measured an even LOWER liquid equivalent?

I was saying "no way" to the 0.6" of snow. A 30:1 ratio is reasonable but 0.6" of snow is not. Yesterday, they added 0.4" of snow to the final climo after the 5:30PM one when it likely did not snow nearly that much in between. I'd imagine the 6 hourly snow measurements are 0, 6, 12 and 18z (or maybe midnight, 6am, noon, 6pm local standard time), in which case that 0.6" may have only been as of 18z/1PM or perhaps even noon which is when the heaviest was just getting started. If that's not when they do their 6 hourly snow measurements then I'm wrong :lol:

 

23* knots 

For some reason I was using a 1.16 conversion instead of 1.15, so ok 23 knots helps just a bit.

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Mallow

Mallow

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I was saying "no way" to the 0.6" of snow. A 30:1 ratio is reasonable but 0.6" of snow is not. Yesterday, they added 0.4" of snow to the final climo after the 5:30PM one when it likely did not snow nearly that much in between. I'd imagine the 6 hourly snow measurements are 0, 6, 12 and 18z (or maybe midnight, 6am, noon, 6pm local standard time), in which case that 0.6" may have only been as of 18z/1PM or perhaps even noon which is when the heaviest was just getting started. If that's not when they do their 6 hourly snow measurements then I'm wrong :lol:

 

That doesn't explain where the 0.02" comes from...

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OHweather

OHweather

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That doesn't explain where the 0.02" comes from...

No, it doesn't. Was the 0.03" we get from adding the hourly observations augmented by the observer...or was that what was measured by the ASOS itself? If that's the case then I guess it's possible the 0.02" was what was hand measured like you said, but it really doesn't make sense that only 0.02" of liquid fell from the whole deal. I can buy only that much landing in the ASOS bucket though.

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Max

Max

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so 0.04 today, I have no clue what it will be tomorrow, you'd think weaker winds would translate to more catching of the snow but I just don't know and the low is like shooting fish in a barrel again. Confident in the high and winds though ;)

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Mallow

Mallow

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OK, so after chatting with one of the mets at GRR, the 5mp CLI only account for the now through 1pm today. That was the 0.02" LWE they measured at the WFO. So he figures it might be closer to 0.10" by the evening CLI.

 

Are they going to do the same tomorrow? Because we need to know which variable we're actually forecasting for.

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OHweather

OHweather

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22/12/17/0.07"

 

The models show decent west winds late tonight into tomorrow morning with a similar airmass in place, so will hope the lake modified air warms things up into the ballpark of 22 again in the morning. Lake effect clouds/west winds tonight do not support a big drop, but tomorrow evening the winds may go NW for a time before ridging building in from the south causes the winds to go more westerly by around 6z Thursday. This gives a window to drop...the 850mb flow is borderline for keeping lake effect clouds/snow into GRR tomorrow evening so did not want to go too cold with the low. For winds figured still gusty but weaker than today. For precip another shortwave rides by tomorrow morning but the flow supports the heaviest snow staying just south of GRR before the winds go NW tomorrow afternoon and evening which just barely grazes GRR with any lake effect snow after the shortwave passes. I figure they'll get 1.5-2.5" of snow on 0.05-0.12" of liquid, split the middle and then leaned a bit low because I'm not nearly as optimistic about heavy lake effect as I was for today.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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21/9/17/0.03 ... i guess precip is a game of guessing how much snow settles into the rain gauge. brutal day for me, down 97 spots to 101 :(

edit. wish i knew for sure how precip would be measures beforehand.

I dropped from 38 to 200 something lol. I'm hoping they put that .09" in their as total precip, that would help me a bit.

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OHweather

OHweather

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Assuming the 0.09" in the climo is what counts I'll fall from 12th to 17th today. Could've been worse I suppose. I'd have to imagine they got another hundredth after 0z, but idk how that would be accounted for since they just updated the climo...with final numbers of 22/11/23/0.09". I know usually the final values in the climo don't matter except for winds, but there appears to be an exception in the rules for human measured snow LWE should the ASOS fail to properly measure it.

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Max

Max

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Assuming the 0.09" in the climo is what counts I'll fall from 12th to 17th today. Could've been worse I suppose. I'd have to imagine they got another hundredth after 0z, but idk how that would be accounted for since they just updated the climo...with final numbers of 22/11/23/0.09". I know usually the final values in the climo don't matter except for winds, but there appears to be an exception in the rules for human measured snow LWE should the ASOS fail to properly measure it.

If I knew before hand that it was going to be a definite human measure or when the nws at GRR does human measures like for day 6 and beyond I would have forecasted actual precipitation like I did for day 6. Now I gotta hope for a tank job with the low later tonight to get back into the top 50. 

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OHweather

OHweather

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If I knew before hand that it was going to be a definite human measure or when the nws at GRR does human measures like for day 6 and beyond I would have forecasted actual precipitation like I did for day 6. Now I gotta hope for a tank job with the low later tonight to get back into the top 50. 

Well, of course that ASOS bucket measured the precip like a champ today. I can't imagine there's a good way of knowing if they are going to human measure the day before unless you ask them, it is what it is.

 

At some point this evening the winds should loose some northerly component and I'm hoping the cooling slows or stops at some point...but I strongly doubt it's enough to save my 12. I'm thinking somewhere between 7-10 will be the likely low, maybe I'm being optimistic.

 

For sh*ts, I ran a hypothetical of 21/7/17/0.08" and I "only" would fall to 26th. I'm hoping for a miracle so I can realistically gun for one of the top few spots tomorrow and Friday.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
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Meanwhile along the Tug hill plateau! They are getting pounded.

Every now and again Erie will spit out an epic band like that but it usually goes towards BUF as opposed to NE OH. One of these winters I'll get a hotel room and "chase" a band like that. Anyways, GRR still at 16 so at least the low may be interesting. I'm still worried my 12 is cooked but we'll see by how much.
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Mallow

Mallow

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Every now and again Erie will spit out an epic band like that but it usually goes towards BUF as opposed to NE OH. One of these winters I'll get a hotel room and "chase" a band like that. Anyways, GRR still at 16 so at least the low may be interesting. I'm still worried my 12 is cooked but we'll see by how much.

 

By a lot...

 

It's probably going to be closer to 6F than 12F :o

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Max

Max

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Looks like 21F, ?? (probably 6-10)F, 17kts, and 0.09" for the day. Not a terrible day for me (21/10/18/0.12), but everyone did pretty well today so it doesn't really make a huge difference. Glad tomorrow has some tricks up its sleeve!

Oh yea the Euro day 7 low is -1F so definitely tricky

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OHweather

OHweather

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25/9/23/0.02"

 

With the low was debating...they are on the very edge of the lake modified air right now and I don't expect clouds to break up much tonight...but as the gradient weakens a bit and temperatures to the N/E cool a bit we may see the lake modified air loose its influence a bit until after about 10z when the gradient increases again. There is a small window for the lake effect clouds to break up after 6z and if that happens could drop lower than 9 for a brief time and then pop back up. Really have no idea what the low will actually be.

 

Went aggressive with the high/winds which may work hand in hand...took a quick peak at the 18z NAM and saw 30 knots at the top of the boundary layer so we'll see. Stronger winds and WAA should help warm things into the 20's, we'll see if it's all the way to 25. I saw a couple of hi-res models that suggested 26. We'll see. There could be a bit of a flareup of lake effect on WAA in the morning, but I'm not expecting much. Did put in a token 0.02" as GRR is running likely POPs pretty much the whole period for the airport's location.

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