H2Otown_WX Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 53/28/25/0. Does anyone think the low could be higher than modeled due to modification by the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 57F wow even my 56F was low today lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 57F wow even my 56F was low today lmao.Maybe time for a run at 60? They have a few more hours until the front gets there. Winds are picking up too which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 57F wow even my 56F was low today lmao. Not surprised at all. When I got up this morning and looked at the models, I was guessing 57-59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not surprised at all. When I got up this morning and looked at the models, I was guessing 57-59. That's what my hysplit air parcel method was giving me but I didn't quite pull the trigger yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like I will be around 100th place after today--that will be nice after digging myself a big week 1 hole in the last 2 cities. Extra thanks to the 100+ people who have a high in the 30s tomorrow for helping the consensus score. Tomorrow: 52/29/21/0 I also went on the warm side with the lake modification, but I get nervous whenever I disagree with the really good forecasters on here. The USL probably has the right idea with 27 for the low. The front is just getting to Milwaukee now so they should hold in the 50s until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's 59 in GRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's 59 in GRR... If it gets to 60 then 1 person in the game will be correct. Anything either side then no one i correct. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think I'm gonna take a little drive up their and put saran wrap over the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 So it looks like 56 will be the high for Thursday. Only one person had that correct. Nobody had 59 for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 56 will be the day 3 high. If the winds for day 2 hit 16-18 knots between obs this evening I'd have a shot at creeping up extremely high in the standings is all else goes well day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 56 will be the day 3 high. If the winds for day 2 hit 16-18 knots between obs this evening I'd have a shot at creeping up extremely high in the standings is all else goes well day 3. The wind should verify at at least 19-20 kt since it gusted to at least 31 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The wind should verify at at least 19-20 kt since it gusted to at least 31 mph. 19* And hopefully winds verify 24+ day 3 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 57 high with 25kt winds for day 3 so far. Ended yesterday in 5th, and now down to 26th. Hopefully the low is around 27-28 and I can salvage today a bit and move back to around 20th. Although it looks like there was an obs of 29mph, so wind will be more then likely increasing. Thankfully that wouldn't change much considering only 2 people had a wind higher than 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 After the disaster that was day 1 for me, I am very happy with the way things have gone in KGRR... a little luck from the rain yesterday helped! Day 1: 1055th place Day 2: 50th place Day 3: Top 5 (2nd to 5th, depending on where the low ends up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 After the disaster that was day 1 for me, I am very happy with the way things have gone in KGRR... a little luck from the rain yesterday helped! Day 1: 1055th place Day 2: 50th place Day 3: Top 5 (2nd to 5th, depending on where the low ends up) If I nail the low (26) I'll be 6th with 0.5 more error points than you...if you nail the low (25) I'll be 8th with 2.5 more error points than you. I'm just happy to be able to quickly find myself when I look at the national standings for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If I nail the low (26) I'll be 6th with 0.5 more error points than you...if you nail the low (25) I'll be 8th with 2.5 more error points than you. I'm just happy to be able to quickly find myself when I look at the national standings for once! Heh, right now I'm thinking 26F+ is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ended up in 79th after day 2. Sitting at 11th right now, but I have 29 for the low so if it goes below 28 I'll be back around 50-100. Still holding out hope that it stays in the upper 20s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Everyone is getting a ton of error at KGRR. Even the current leader btangy has a bunch. KGRR is taking no prisoners so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Back to consensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 27/23/10/0 - I was going to put 28 but I was 5 seconds late. Otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 29/22/12/0 I think there's a chance they don't get below 28 or 29 by 6z...the winds will go more NW after that time at which point the lake modified air wouldn't get to GRR as effectively, but if the winds stay breezy and westerly the temps may not fall much by 6z. There could be a few breaks in the clouds tomorrow that also allow for a modest temp rise if they can't stay up at 28 or 29 through 6z tonight. Tomorrow night the winds begin to lighten and the winds will be more NW which isn't a great lake effect flow for GRR. This coupled with dews in the low to mid teens causes some risk for a quick drop into the teens if some breaks in the clouds can occur for any length of time, but wasn't nearly confident enough in that happening to go too cold on the low. If anything it wouldn't surprise me to see the low end up a degree or two north of 22. Conditions will be marginal for LES by tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow night but with the unfavorable flow for GRR to see it and what will really be a marginal setup banked on them missing any measurable precip, although there will certainly be lake effect clouds through tomorrow night...whether or not there are any breaks is the question. With the pressure gradient relaxing am hoping winds verify considerably lower than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Went with 27/22/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 27/22/15/0 seems to be a nice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 26/22/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 26/19/12/0 I would love for the high to be 28-29 which would help me with today's forecast. However, my more logical side went down to 26. As for the 19 low, I just wasn't comfortable staying in the 20s with how cold this airmass is. In the past they had no problem dropping into the teens even with the westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 28/23/14/0 .. low confidence on the low temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Still clinging to 30 at 4z so I won't give up on my 29 just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Still clinging to 30 at 4z so I won't give up on my 29 just yet. Somehow muskegon is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Somehow muskegon is colder. I was really surprised to see GRR hold onto the 30 at 4z. They'll fall into the 20's soon, we'll see if they fall below 29 by 6z. They very well could, I know I took a gamble on Friday's high. 29 at 5z now. They were stuck at 30 for 2 hours but the winds are a bit lighter and more NW now, this will be fun to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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